Underdog or favorite? It's a choice we make 16 times per week during the NFL season. While there are certainly times when favorites warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting underdogs is the best way to make money in the NFL. Here are six reasons why you should pay special attention the dogs this season when making your football picks. 1. NFL ParityThe NFL has made great strides to achieve rough equality among teams. It has succeeded. Just look at these SuperBowl teams from the past several years: St. Louis in 2000, Baltimore in 2001, New England in 2002, Tampa Bay in 2003, and Carolina last year. None of these teams were supposed to make it that far but they all did and many won, despite losing records the year before. Unlike the college game, any given team can win on Sunday in the NFL. Why not get some points to boot? 2. A Win is a WinAgain, unlike in College, there is no need to blow-out a team. Favorites that get up early don't typically run up the score in the NFL. It doesn't serve a purpose and in most cases,Costa Rica tourism coaches would rather not embarrass their opponent and/or risk injury to their stars. In the NFL, big leads often dwindle, with underdogs covering late in the game. 3. The Rodney Dangerfield EffectUnderdogs don't get any respect! They don't get it from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More importantly, they don't get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if players and coaches minds are on other things, like next week's tougher opponent).
costa rica tourism Research and an understanding of historical trends can reveal great situations in which underdogs are poised for an upset. 4. The Public Can't Help ItselfThe average bettor loves the popular teams (favorites), oftentimes pushing lines unreasonably high. We saw it during the 90's with Dallas and San Francisco . In fact, almost every week, with the right research, you can spot teams that should be favorites but are getting points against a popular team that has been installed as a favorite due to the public "bandwagon effect." For example, last year Kansas City visited Cincinnati in week 10. The Chiefs had won nine straight and seemed invincible. In hindsight, Cincinnati was the easy underdog pick. Kansas City 's defense was ranked 25 th in the league at the time. Cincinnati was on a roll having won 3 of their last four games and Rudi Johnson was coming into his own. Cincinnati had the emotional edge and nothing to lose by taking a shot at an undefeated team they knew they could beat. However, the public couldn't get over Kansas City 's success and spot this situation. 5. Got Courage?Most bettors don't have the courage to go with certain underdogs. They see a (perceived) good team versus a (perceived) bad team and assume it won't be a contest. They have formed an opinion about how horrible some teams are based on a recent blowout or past personal gambling loss. Again, with the right combination of statistical and situational research, some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week. There are also certain situations in which bad teams have historically and reliably outperformed their average. Match that with a historically-proven situation in which favorites under-perform and you have yourself a reliable upset scenario. 6. The Point-spread Matters Less than You ThinkHistorically, the point-spread matters in the NFL only about 16% of the time. In other words, 84% of the time, the team that covers the spread also wins. With this knowledge, if you have underdogs that you really like (based on the right research, not a hunch), you can take them to win straight-up (money line), collecting anywhere from 1.2 to 4 times your original bet. Usually a three-point dog will pay around 140 for 100 for a straight-up win versus 100 for 110 wagered on a regular spread-based pick. Seven point underdogs pay around 250 for 100 for a straight-up win. What It All MeansObviously just playing all underdogs is not the answer (that would yield you approximately 50% wins and a negative account balance). However, with the right research, you can spot some very high-value underdog winners each week.Get Free NFL picks this season...
Click here to see my philosophy for the NFL preseason.Click here to see my philosophy for the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl. Can money be made on NFL preseason picks? Absolutely. Can handicappers approach the preseason the same way they do in the regular season? Of course not. Should you bet the NFL preseason? That's up to you.Why is the preseason different? For one, power ratings don't mean a thing. Past season performance doesn't correlate much to preseason performance either. And, there are few if any past games to look at that provide any true predictive value.Get Free NFL Picks for the 2007 seasonThat being said, there are some indicators of ATS (against the spread) results in the preseason. In fact, the same issues that make these games more difficult to handicap make them more difficult for lines-makers to peg. Remember, it doesn’t take much of an edge - if we can beat 52.4% with our picks, we bank!In 2002, we went 4-1-1 ATS in the preseason. In 2003, we went 9-6 ATS, in 2004, we went 11-9-1 ATS and in 2005 we were an incredible 20-8 in the "games that don't matter." Despite going just 13-14 in 2006 (our first losing year), overall, we've hit 60% for +26.3 units.We make our preseason picks by analyzing the following:Coaches/PhilosophyDo they take the preseason seriously or use it for its intended purpose (to test out players and new schemes)? For example, take a look at Bill Parcells. His focus on making every play count, whether in a real game or practice, and his disciplined approach has resulted in his team covering the spread in roughly two thirds of the preseason games he has coached. The retired Marv Levy of Buffalo was just the opposite and was a great "go-against" preseason coach.Costa Rica Real Estate We track every coach's record and look for signals as to how they approach these games. Keep an eye on Jack Del Rio. In three seasons with Jacksonville, he has gone 8-4 with two 3-1 campaigns and no losing years, indicating he takes the preseason seriously. On the flip side, Andy Reid, despite a 3-2 campaign last year, has only won 36% of his preseason games in Philly.Be careful, however, about blindly betting "good" coach vs. "poor" coach. Over the past five years, "good" coaches (50%+ preseason ATS record) were 51% ATS while "poor" coaches (<50%>
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