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football picksFootballSports Betting Football PicksFree NFL football picks, NFL football predictions, fantasy football info, and handicapping tips for the 2007 season.GameBreaker Football Picks has been providing quality NFL picks online since 1998.
The 2007 NFL preseason finished with a profitable 9-5-1 result. The NFL preseason picks have had 5 consecutive winning seasons and 51-28-3 65% combined.
The 2007 regular season is underway. Scroll down for the current NFL picks and fantasy football updates. Past Results: Over the years I've produced many outstanding runs along with consistent, long term success. Here's a brief overview heading into the 2007 season:
In 2002 I won the prestigious NFL Ultimate Handicapping Challenge hitting +65% of my NFL football picks. I beat out over 140 other services to take the top spot.
The NFL 5* Top Plays have produced a 57-33-3 (63%) result since September 2002.
2006 NFL UHC: I placed 6th in units and 8th in winning percentage.
2006 Recap: Individually the NFL preseason, NFL regular season/playoffs, & college football all produced winning results. The NFL picks finished on a 13-3-0 (81%) run & college football finished on a 34-14 70% run.
I've added a free NFL Fantasy Football section where I'll share some of the fantasy info that I feel is significant and helpful for visitors. Handicapping the preseason and constantly taking in player info allowed me to win 2 of the 3 head-to-head leagues that I was in during 2006.2007 Fantasy Football.
NFL Week 1
Update: Monday September 9th
Sunday's NFL picks finished with a 3-2-0 result & the Regular Season Wins picks got off to a decent start. I'm passing on Monday and check back later this week for updates.

Sunday September 9th
Carolina at St. Louis
Pick: Under 43
I feel that public perception has inflated the line. The Rams have a good offence but they have become more of a running team in keeping with the philosophy of their head coach. An emphasis on the run helps to burn time off the clock and limit the total offensive plays. For the Panthers, their offence struggled during the preseason. While I don't want to harp on that too much, they did struggle even with the starters and it's alot to ask for everything to be ok overnight. The defenses have been able to perform against each other in the recent past. Last season these teams met in week 10 and the Panthers pitched a 16-0 shutout win and placed a heavy emphasis on the run. Play Under 43 for a 3* play.

Sunday September 9th
Kansas City at Houston
Pick: Houston -3
Houston is a team that had quietly gotten better as 2006 went on and they made some nice upgrades in the off-season. Schaub has been impressive and finally gets to step into a starters role. Kansas City is a team I expect to decline in 2007 and there are more than a couple red flags with their offense. That became very obvious during the preseason. This is a very good situation for the Texans and they have played very well at home, including wins vs Jacksonville and Indy last season. I'll lay a FG with the home side. Take Houston -3 for a 3* play.
Last regular game of the season. Our advice is to avoid betting the overs. Very little focus is placed on these games and it turns into a pseudo-pre-season game for many teams. Unders are preferred.
Teams that need wins will have big juices. Jets, Denver in the AFC. A win and they are in the playoffs. Pretty much locks but can they beat the double digit spreads, not sure.
Here are our picks.
Pittsburgh Steelers +6 over Cincinnati Bengals (1.5 Units) - The Bengals only hope of getting into the playoffs is if there are losses by the Broncos and Jets. The Steelers have no chance. But this is a division rivalry battle that will be taken to the trenches regardless of what happens in the rest of the AFC. For that reason, we expect the Steelers to cover this big spread.
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 over St. Louis Rams (1.5 Units) - The Rams are in the thick of the 7-8 battle in the NFC for last seed of the playoffs. But Minnesota is at home and getting points.
Greenbay Packers +3 over Chicago Bears (2.0 Units) - The Packers may or may not have a playoffs chance by the time this game is played but it could be Favre's last game. He tends to shine in big games anyways. The Bears have nothing to play for. They have a first round bye but they will not be playing hard, let alone on Monday. We know they are going up against their rivals so that is why we do not peg the Packers as a 3.0 unit play.
The National Football League (NFL) is the largest and most prestigious professional American football league. It was formed by eleven teams in 1920 as the American Professional Football Association and adopted the name National Football League in 1922. The league currently consists of thirty-two teams from American cities and regions, divided evenly into two conferences (AFC and NFC), with four, four-team divisions.
The regular season is a seventeen-week schedule during which each team has one bye week and plays sixteen games. This schedule includes a round robin of six games against against a team's divisional rivals, as well as several inter-division and inter-conference games. The season currently starts on the Thursday night in the first full week of September and runs weekly to late December.
At the end of each regular season, six teams from each conference play in the NFL playoffs, a twelve-team single-elimination tournament that culminates with the NFL championship, the Super Bowl. This game is held at a pre-selected site which is usually a city that hosts an NFL team. Two weeks later, selected all-star players from both the AFC and NFC meet in the Pro Bowl, currently held in Honolulu, Hawaii.
The NFL is one of the most popular sports leagues in the United States, and has the highest per-game attendance of any domestic professional sports league in the world, drawing over 67,000 spectators per game for its most recently completed season in 2006.NFL Analysis: Seahawks looking just as super By DAVE TULEY Betting on the Super Bowl usually follows a predictable pattern. Oddsmakers post the opening line, professional sports bettor snatch up any rogue numbers and the line usually solidifies before the tourists descend on Las Vegas and ninety percent of the handle comes in over the big weekend.
This year has shown a little change in the script. The Super Bowl line went up two weeks ago with the Steelers favored by 3 1/2 or 4 points. The 3 1/2’s were bought up pretty quick and sports books reported that they are taking two to three times as much action on the Steelers when the line was 4. Many books – especially those that cater to the locals crowd such as Coast, Stations and Leroy’s – moved to 4 1/2, but the consensus opinion is that it’s still more likely to rise.
Earlier this past week, the Rampant and Cannery in the suburbs and the Plaza and Golden Nugget downtown moved the line to 5, but by Friday they were all back down to 4 1/2. That would tend to suggest that 5 is the back number, though with public sentiment and the media hype surrounding the Steelers, there’s no telling if the tourists will bet it past 5 over the weekend. It’s still very much up in the air.
The total, which opened at 48 at some books, has pretty much settled at 47 everywhere and isn’t as likely to fluctuate.
Super Bowl XL at DetroitSeahawks (+4 1/2) vs. Steelers
Frankly, I’ll just start out by stating that I think the Seahawks are the better team. The Steelers have some intangibles such as the game being closer to Pittsburgh and the whole Jerome-Bettis-returning-home angle, but if pressed to make a true line on this game I would make it around pick-em and perhaps the Seahawks as a small favorite.
Now, I understand all the reasons why oddsmakers had to make the Steelers favored by more than a field goal: they come from the stronger AFC, they went on the road to Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver and defeated the 1-2-3 seeds in that stronger conference and are on a bonafide roll.
But what people seem to be forgetting is that the Seahawks haven’t done anything wrong. You hear experts and non-experts alike saying that the Seahawks played in a weak division (true) and that they got to play their two playoff games at home vs. the No. 5 and 6 seeds from the weaker conference. I fail to see how any of that should be used to discredit the Seahawks’ chances. In most years when a team dominates its conferences, it earns home-field advantage and rolls into the Super Bowl. Isn’t that how it’s supposed to work? They lined up vs. whom they had to play, and they’ve earned their spot in this game.
They went 13-3 in the regular season, losing at Jacksonville and Washington – two playoff teams – and then at Green Bay when resting their starters in the regular-season finale.
In a way, I’m glad the Colts lost to the Chargers the week before their game with the Seahawks and then rested their players, because no one is giving the Seahawks credit for winning that game, but I think they would have beaten the Colts at full-strength, just like the Steelers did.
Yet, all we seem to be hearing about is Steelers this and Steelers that. So be it, I’ll take the points as all this disrespect should only serve to inspire the Seahawks. After they beat the Redskins in the divisional playoffs, a lot of defenders said they were motivated because everyone was saying the Redskins had a better defense and that the Seahawks had the worst defense of the remaining teams. They were then told they couldn’t slow down the Panthers’ offense and they went out and did just that.
This defense has more speed than people give them credit for, and should be up to the test vs. Bettis, Ben Roethlisberger & Co.
All the talk has been about the Pittsburgh defense, but again there’s no reason to think the Seahawks – who had the highest-scoring offense in the NFL – won’t be able to move the ball on Sunday.
I also like the game to go under the total of 47 points, as I expect both teams to try and establish the run and both defenses have the ability to bend but not break. That should lead to time-consuming drives that could end up with more field goals than touchdowns. However, it should be pointed out that in the conference championship games, I was correct with the sides on the Seahawks and Steelers but was wrong as I went with the under in both those games, too, so take that with a grain of salt.
PLAY: Seahawks for 2 units and under 47 points for 1 unit.
Conference title games: 2-2 for a net loss of 0.3 units (laying 1.1 units to win 1). Postseason record: 9-11 for a net loss of 5.6 units.
Making some propositions
My above comments should give some hints as to what prop bets I’m considering. Here’s a quick rundown of props I’ve bet or are waiting to bet, with odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton as of Thursday night.
Total field goals: With my thought that there will be more field goals than touchdowns, I took over 3 1/2 field goals at +135.
Total touchdowns: Ditto for taking under 5 1/2 TD’s at –120.
Bettis props: I’ll be looking to fade the action by going under after the public bets up the Bettis props. As of Friday, the over/under on these were 15 1/ 2 rushing attempts, 39 1/ 2 rushing yards (Stations had it at 44 1/ 2) and the “no” on whether he would score a touchdown was at +135. All should be available at much better numbers Sunday.
Halftime leader/game winner: This has become my favorite annual bet since first making it three years ago. I take the “halftime tie” to each team and cheer for it to be tied at the half and I have a guaranteed winner. Last year, the Patriots and Eagles were tied at the half and I had the Patriots at 10-1 and the Eagles at 14-1, cashing when the Pats won. This year, the Hilton opened the halftime tie/Steelers win game at 12-1 and the halftime tie/Seahawks win at 15-1. Some bettors have obviously also seen the value in this as the odds Thursday night were down to 10-1 and 12-1, respectively, but still worth a shot. Here’s hoping for a 10-10 tie at half for the sake of all my wagers.
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