gamble

NFL bet tips
Sports Betting Tips:
Let's take a look at a few tips that will help you profit as a sports bettor:
1: Knowledge 2: Money Management 3: Discipline
Knowledge: Know what you are doing! Don’t just wing it because someone told you they thought their team was going to win it all. Study up on the game and the sport before placing your bet. When it comes to successful sports wagering success, you must be scientific and heartless about the teams in question. Otherwise, you may as well throw your money away.
Know what trends to look for in each sport and how certain stats affect teams differently:
Take weather into account. A cold, windy day might have an adverse affect on teams coming to Detroit if they are playing baseball, but if you try to give the Lions an advantage in an NFL game the same day, for the same reason, you are going to look very silly when someone shows you their covered stadium. Research recent matchups between the teams you are betting on. The team you like may have won six games in a row but historically bomb badly against the team you were thinking should lose because of that win streak. Some teams just match up well against others, regardless of other factors. Know what live and betting stats are relevant to this game. Does it matter that your pitcher has a stellar record against left-handed batters if the team he is facing has very few of those? Especially in prop bets, know the opposition as well as or better than the team you are wagering on. You don’t want to bet that Peyton Manning throws for 300 yards against the league’s strongest pass defense when you can also look and see that the running defense is not so hot and Manning has running backs in the backfield to pound the ball downfield on the ground. Look at the intangibles like injuries, suspensions, team chemistry, revenge factors and rivalries that can’t be expressed in terms of numbers. Timing is the key to beating the numbers. Make sure to keep an eye on lines as they often change as the game gets closer. Getting your wager in before your line goes down, or waiting until it goes higher in your favor is very often the difference between a win and a loss. Always include special teams, coaching and defensive analysis in your handicapping strategy. Ever been burned by a last-second, otherwise meaningless run back for a touchdown or a coach who does not watch the game clock, letting the other team get the ball back with time to score? The ability to secure good field position, or prevent it, is a key factor to consider. Money Management: Unless you are Charles Barkley, you can’t afford to throw your whole bankroll on one game and, if you lose, just grab another roll. You need to set aside an amount that is no more than what you can afford to LOSE over the season. You need to be stingy! Sometimes it is hard to keep your bet amounts nearly the same, using only a small percentage of your bankroll - under 5% - for each wager. In fact, sticking to your program and not chasing losses is probably the hardest thing about wagering successfully over a period of time. Every once in a while, sure, go ahead and double your bet size. But make sure you do it only on very strong plays and not on what you WANT to be a strong play because you just lost a few. Sure things and locks do not exist in the real world.
Discipline: Discipline is the foundation you must have in order to properly manage your money and wager knowledgeably. If you lose your discipline, you will lose your bankroll. Period. If you have a good winning streak, say 8 wins and 2 losses, you are now up 6 units. Then you drop 3 in a row. At this point, you are still up 3 units. It is now easy to lose focus, forgetting your previous wins and the long haul and to double up on a couple bets to try to recoup the 3 losses. Now, if you lose those two doubled up bets, instead of still being up one unit overall, you are down one unit. It is only natural to want to chase the losses, but remaining true to your plan will pay off and make sense at the end of the season. To test this, try writing down the times you wanted to chase losses through a season, without actually chasing, and see what your bankroll would have been if you had chased instead of exercising discipline. Your profits will speak volumes.
NFL Football Betting Tips:
The most popular sports betting time of the year is football season. Bettors wait with high anticipation for both the NFL and college football games to begin. What do you need to do as a sports betting enthusiast to get ready for the season? Preparation is of paramount importance. Let's take a look at a few football betting tips that should help you this season:
1. Go Against the Public. Always look to go against the popular sports betting plays. Going against the public is always a wise decision and it can make your sportsbook experience much more profitable.
2. Be aggressive if you have an edge. Don't be afraid to take advantage of early season lines. Some handicappers and sports bettors stress patience and take a wait-and-see attitude. The early season can be your best time in football. Take advantage of those opportunities when they present themselves.
3. Don't rely too much upon last season's data. It is a new year and different things will happen in sports. Early in the season, power ratings are not very helpful. Wait a few weeks before making them a big part of your handicapping. In the early part of the season, especially in college football, pay more attention to the returning starters, the latest information, and look for bad lines.
4. Look in advance for teams to go with or against this season. Look for those teams that could be good go against teams this sports betting season. Which teams are overpriced and might be heavily publicized by the media? Going against those teams will automatically give us extra value in the line because of their large following.
5. Look for the best sportsbook lines. Anytime you can get a half point or more in your favor it is a big deal. Over the course of the season it can add anywhere from 4-6 percent to your bankroll. If everything else was even and you otherwise won 50% of the time, this will be the difference between shrinking and growing your bankroll.
6. Develop your own strategy. Find your strengths. If you are a great Big 12 handicapper, focus more on those games. If you struggle in the colleges but do well in the NFL, limit your college plays. The main thing here is to play to your strengths. We all do some things better than others. Find your strengths and use them.
When using stats to inform your NFL betting decisions, look at these things not included in the final, official stats:
A) Penalties - If one team consistently draws 2 pass-interference calls against the other team, these are usually big plays that do not show up in official stats.
B) Non-Plays included in averages – Each time a QB kneels down, the team is charged with -1 or -2 rushing yards. If they do this a few times in a game, their rushing average will be deceptively low. The same occurs with spiking the ball to stop the clock inside 2 minutes left in each half. Each counts as an incomplete pass in the record books.
C) Situational Stats – These stats show how good a team or player does in certain situations. For example, a running back only comes in on third and short situations. He rushes 6 times for 8 yards but gave the team a first down 5 times. His individual stats would not show a great average but his effect on his team’s performance is immense. The fact that a team has this weapon available for use is something to consider, especially if they are playing against a team who does not do so well against the run.
D) Turnover differential is the biggest indicator of game winners when all else seems even. More often than not, the team that turns the ball over less wins the game and covers the spread.
Pointspread Betting:
Pointspreads are NOT indicators of how much a book maker feels one team will win or lose by. Point spreads indicate the number a book maker feels is necessary to divide public money on the game evenly.
Point spreads are often inflated for very popular teams and for teams that have been playing very good as of late, but against inferior teams.
Lines move to balance the action coming in on a game. Take advantage of those moves by following these simple rules of thumb:
If you like the favorite and the money line is rising, the spread might get bigger. Wait it out and you might get a better number. If you like the underdog and the money line is rising, get your bet in early to get the biggest number for your team. If the line does change, your team will lose points. If you like the favorite and the money line is getting cheaper, take the line as it looks like the spread will be falling. If you like the underdog and the money line is getting cheaper, wait to place your bet. If the spread changes, it will be in your favor.
Money Line Betting:
You may take advantage of money lines by taking a couple simple things into consideration when placing your bet:
Money lines either express the wager amount necessary to win $100 or the amount won by wagering $100, depending on whether or not the line is expressed as a negative or a positive, respectfully. When the line is -110 for both teams, it is called a standard line, meaning that there is no favorite in the game. As the line moves, or breaks, from -110, one team’s line will become more expensive and the other will become cheaper. This is when you make your move! If you like a team to win and you see their lines starting to get more expensive, place your bet. If your team wins, you will have paid less to win more. If the money line is becoming cheaper on the team you like, wait it out as your win amount will be higher for the same amount wagered. Just keep in mind: Although money lines can give you the highest win percentage when done right, one loss on a heavily favored team that seemed like a lock can set you back a few wins. In sports gambling, as in life, there are no guarantees!
An If Bet consists of two straight bets joined together by an IF CLAUSE. That is, if the customer's first play is a win or a push, then we process his second wager. In If Bets the player gets Double Action (wager goes on only if the first one wins, ties or cancels).
Each of the bets in the If Bet must be for the same amount or less than the first one, he cannot change each subsequent one to a higher amount; however, when you have money lines you have to be careful and see if the customer is taking only dogs, only favorites or a combinations of both.
There are two types of If wagers: If win is one type. The other type is if win or tie. If a game is cancelled, postponed or graded no action,.the wager is graded as a tie.

If Bets can be used for all of the four major sports (Football, Basketball, Baseball & Hockey), except circled games; and there is no buying points allowed. The advantage of placing an If Bet is that the customer can make sure to get action on all of the games that he is interested in. Sometimes he will have a pending wager that hasn't been reconciled and there can be a game going of the board, so if he places an If Bet he will not have any kind of problem whatsoever.
Example
If bets are combinations of 2 Straight Bets/Sidebets. You can use multiple sports in your combinations.

If Bets Combinations Odds for a $100 Bet If win or Tie $110 to win $100 If Win only $110 to win $100 If Lose or Tie $110 to win $100 If Lose only $110 to win $100
Example

Teams Line Price Total Price San Diego Chargers +7½ -110 35 -110 Oakland Raiders -7 -110 44 -110 USC Trojans -9 -110 41 -110 Arizona Wildcats +2 -110 51 -110

Bet example: 2-Team If Bet.
If San Diego Chargers +7½ Win only Risking $110. to win $100.
Next bet: USC Trojans over 41 Risking $110 to win $100.
If the first bet is a winner then your second bet will have action.
HANDICAPPING THE NFL PRESEASON
Most professional handicappers know NFL preseason games can be quite rewarding. But bettors also know they must be selective. NFL exhibitions are, after all, just glorified practice games for the billion-dollar league. The key is betting on the teams that “want” a game more than the other side, or betting on the side that will use the far better personnel that day.
THE FORMULA
No, not a handicapping formula. But a coaches’ “preseason progression formula” has emerged in the 1990s-00s. It’s something like this. Use the starters for the first couple of series or the first quarter in Game One, then the backups for a quarter-plus, then the reserves. In Game Two, starters go 1-2 quarters, then the backups one-plus quarters, then the reserves. Game Three is really the dress rehearsal for the regular season, with starters usually going into the third quarter, often trying some of the new stuff they’ve added in training camp; backups might go the rest of the way. Most of the time in the Final Game, the starters play only briefly (unless they need the work), or not at all, with backups and reserves going most of the way, with special focus on players who are “on the bubble” to make the roster.
THE COACHES’ AGREEMENT
There is a general “Gentlemen’s Agreement” among coaches in the NFL preseason, kind of like this: “I will play my starters only against your starters, my backups vs. your backups, reserves vs. your reserves, and I’ll limit blitzes and kick blocks to obvious situations in the first two games.” Fortunately for handicappers, not all the coaches agree to this agreement all the time. Many coaches get “steamed” after a bad performance, or two straight losses. Some coaches (such as Bill Cowher or Tom Coughlin) like to blitz any time they feel like it. A few will sometimes re-insert starters late in a game in order to lock up a win!
SOME EDGES
Biggest Edge of All. The use of better personnel in that game, either due to injuries, competition, or quality depth, especially at QB. Most first-time NFL QBs will struggle late in games when working with reserve personnel, often producing more points for the opposition than for their own team.
Teams with a Game under Their Belt. Such teams did well last year when facing teams playing their first exhibition, going 7-2 vs. the spread. However, “belted teams” are only 13-14 vs. the spread the L6Ys; 24-23 the L8Ys.
Teams off to an 0-2 Start. Coaches get very antsy when their teams are 0-2, partly because the last game of the preseason is often a “throwaway,” with coaches focused primarily on the upcoming reg.-season opener. 0-2 teams (when not facing another 0-2 team) were 4-1 vs. the spread last year, 8-6 the L2Ys, 23-15 the L6Ys, and 60% the L17Ys.
Jets vs. Giants. They won’t say so, but this is not “just another exhibition” when these two meet, at least to the Jets, who have covered the last 10 meetings! (Wow!)
TOTALS
Do the “Unders” Rule in Early Exhibitions? Sometimes, such as in 2001, when there were only 5 “overs” vs. 13 “unders” in the combined prelim week and full Week One of the preseason schedule (and only 7 “overs” vs. 26 “unders” the first 2+ weeks, by the way). However, the “overs” still lead the “unders” 69-61 in the first 1+ weeks over the L7Ys.

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BREAKING EVEN SHOULD MAKE YOU A WINNER!
The few experienced and successful sportsmen we knew firmly believe that if you break even in 100 predictions you should wind up a winner. That's not because 50-50 is considered spectacular. Rather, considering the streaks that are inevitably involved in each season, a sensible wagerer will press a winning streak (without getting out of control) and back off from a losing trend. We realize this strategy is much easier said than done, and if you're not a serious follower of a sport, you might as well forget it. The uneducated wagerer is at a tremendous disadvantage here. The reason? Successful streak following is a matter of feel and intuition. A thorough knowledge of yourself as a wagerer and of the teams is essential. When you are going good, step up the pace. It does take a certain amount of courage to press your normal wager or number of plays, but a winning streak must be exploited. If your luck begins to run bad, retreat and use caution. If you don't have a good flow going, there's no reason to push it. When can you spot a streak coming on? It probably shouldn't be a set number of consecutive wins or losses that triggers you into action. Even if you're a sound handicapper, if your top selections are accompanied by lingering doubt, don't force it. On the other hand, if you've been doing fairly well and can almost visualize the final score in the next day's newspaper, the positive vibes have grabbed you and you should press forward. By using streaks to your advantage, you should be able to capitalize and make the most of your hot hand (and not get destroyed by a cold streak).
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KEEP YOUR RECORDS STRAIGHT! Sports wagering is no different than business,you must keep accurate records to be successful. Most all of the notable sports bettors keep detailed, accurate records. These should include:
. The $ amount of each wager; . Who was bet on (home favorite, home dog, etc.); . Type of wager (straight, parlay, etc.); . A chart of teams you went withþand against.
If you wish to go one step further, visual aids (graphs and charts) can prove even more enlightening. You records should be quite revealing. They should uncover your most fertile wagering areas, as well as your most troublesome spots. After those trends are apparent, you'll be more inclined to focus your wagering activity in the profitable areas. Also, it's a good idea to keep track of how your "last minute," "heat of battle," or "just watching" wagers have performed. Again, the key is to isolate your most profitable wagering areas. Granted, all of this record keeping can be time consuming. If nothing else, however, you'll become a more intelligent wagerer. If you're already successful, it should make you even better!
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QUANTITY VS. QUALITY When are 60% winners better than 70% winners? Not often. When managing money, however, we want the most money to manage, and that will often mean wagering on numerous games. There are two divergent schools of thought on the number of games to wager. Some believe in highly-selective wagering, playing as few as 3-5 games per week. Others believe in playing every game on the board, reasoning that if you know your stuff, why hold back? In truth, the best range lies somewhere in between, though probably closer to the lower example. If one played every game, the exposure to luck (both good and bad) will probably have too much effect on the selections. Besides, the vigorish ("juice") will eat one alive. On the other hand, if someone rigidly holds to 3-5 games per week, and a card appears with 10-12 attractive plays, how is the list to be trimmed? Inevitably, after honing down a list, one will often discover that many winners were left off. This isn't to say that you should play games you don't like. Rather, play the games you like based on the parameters you've set for yourself. This is vitally important when considering quantity vs. quality. Your goal should be to attain the most positive units at season's end. Of course, picking 80% on all of the games would be sensational, but it's not realistic. A goal of 60-70% winners is difficult, but it's attainable (especially if using the Pro Football Handicapping Software Engine!), and it can be more profitable as well as more practical.So, how can less be more? If you were selective and played five games per week for 16 weeks (80 games), and managed the near-impossible trick of 70% winners, it would calculate like this; 56 winners, minus the 24 losers, equals +32 units. With the "juice" calculated, that's roughly +30 units. On the other hand, if you played 15 games per week for 16 weeks (240 games), and connected on 60% of those wagers, you'd be +48 units (144 minus 96), and after the "juice" would be approximately +38 unitsþfar ahead of the previous scenario.^TOP
EXOTIC WAGERING Webster's defines exotic as "strikingly or excitingly different or unusual." And that's the reason most gamblers get involved with exotic wagersþexcitementþand the chance to make a "big score." Exotic wagering includes betting cards, parlays, teasers, round robins, ad infinitum in the sports area. One might as well include bingo, keno, slot machines, and lotteries in this group, since the odds of winning are roughly the same. Simply put, most knowledgeable handicappers avoid those types of wagers. Even sports book administrators admit they aren't good wagers, but they'll gladly accept that money from the customer for the same reason. The most commonly wagered exotic plays are teasers or parlays. A parlay is when one bets a multiple of teams (2 or more) at once and that all must win or the wager is lost. A teaser allows one to subtract between 5 and 7 points from the favorite or add the same number of points to the underdog. The odds payoff is lower as you subtract or add points. You must play at least two teams, usually three. It's difficult enough to pick the pointspread winner of any game at a proficient level over the long run. So, knowing that the odds are not stacked in your favor at the outset with the exotic wagers, why on earth dig yourself into that ditch?^TOP
MORE EXOTIC WAGERING The chart below details the facts about parlays: the harder it is to pick winners, the less proportionate the payoff. Simply put, parlays don't offer payoffs at true odds.
Winners True Odds Parlay Odds Takeout
2 for 2 3:1 2:1 33% 3 for 3 7:1 5:1 28% 4 for 4 15:1 10:1 33% 6 for 6 63:1 19:1 69% 8 for 8 255:1 149:1 42%
Parlay cards require that one plays the odds listed on the card. There's no advantage of being able to shop for numbers, as one might playing one game at a time. True, shrewd handicapping can reduce your odds to better than pure mathematical chance, but the parlay payoff cards are still too hard to consistently beat. Do teasers look more appealing? Keep in mind that in the NFL, the pointspread normally affects between only 10-15% of the games played. So, if one can pick the winner of a game straight- up, the points won't usually matter one way or the other. The spread comes into play more often in college football, but the payoff odds are still a disadvantage. Many books also mislead the bettors in their methods of stating the odds. For example, in a two-team parlay the odds might be stated at "3 for 1" on the card, leading some to believe that they're receiving 3:1. In truth, "3 for 1" translates into 2:1, because one only gets back 3 unitsþtwo of theirs, plus the unit wagered. That's a significant difference from 3:1, in which one gets back 4 total unitsþthree from the book, plus the one unit wagered.^TOP

WORDS FOR THE WISE There are three key components of sports wagering: Selection of pointspread winners at a profitable ratio. Shopping for value when attacking the line. Proper money management.
As in most endeavors, success in sports wagering requires dilligence, savvy, and discipline. At the beginning, be sure that your record-keeping techniques be utilized. Detailed, accurate records of your past activity can provide you with clues as to where your most profitable areas lie, and equally as important, where the most failure is encountered. Concentrating on more "fertile" areas should improve your chances for success. It's also important to be flexible in the number of game syou play. Don't lock yourself into a set number of games per week. How often have you made up your mind to play only three games when eight or nine spots have looked attractive, only to end up losing the few you played? On the other hand, if you're set on playing ahigh number of games, you'll inevitable end up forcing plays you don't like and suffering the consequences. Don't be as concerned about picking a high % of winners, either; rather, llok for quality in your selections and strive to get ahead as many units as possible.^TOP

THE KELLY CRITERION PART I The Kelly Criterion is a complex math treatise first presented by a Bell Telephone engineer. Several years ago, it was adapted to sports wagering by a respected Las Vegas writer, computer analyst and handicapper, Huey Mahl. At that time, he was one of the chief advocates of using optimal betting methodsspecifically the Kelly Criterion in sports wagering. This method presents a formula to determine what proportion of your bankroll to wager (risk) on each game in order to realize the maximum possible profit with the smallest probability of loss. This formula holds regardless of the order or sequence of wins and losses (with certain limitations). The Kelly Criterion is a method to help you compound a greater amount of interest on your bankroll than the "simple" interest gained by using a flat bet method. In using this method to determine a proper wagering amount, you must first have the confidence that you can beat the pointspread at a reasonable winning percentage. If this reasonable winning percentage is 60% winners (tough, but achievable), the Kelly Criterion is calculated thusly: 60% (winners) minus 1.1 x 40, or 60 minus 44=16. The number gives us the "Kelly Advantage," or optimum betting amount for maximizing return. You apply this betting % to your bankroll to determine the amount of your wager; if your bankroll is $3,000, your wager would be .16 x $3000, which equals $480 (this includes the vigorish, so your actual expected return on a winning wager would be .91 x $480, or $436.80).^TOP

THE KELLY CRITERION PART II Let's refresh your mind and again provide the formula for the "Kelly Advantage," a formula used to derive the optimal interest from your bankroll. 60% (projected winners) minus 1.1 x 40, or 60 minus 44=16. Apply that betting pct. (16%) to your bankroll to determine the amount of your wager. If your bankroll is $3000, your wager would be .16 x $3000, or $480. Keep in mind that to make the "Kelly Advantage" work, it requires that you project a reasonable % of winners. Please, be realistic projecting anything above 60% winners and calculating it into your "Kelly Advantage" is inviting disaster. With the Kelly Method, you're able to take advantage of winning streaks by betting more. When you're on a losing streak (as everybody will be on occasion), following the Kelly System automatically reduces the $ amount of your wager. True, there are negative aspects of the Kelly Criterion. Since all of your wagers are based on a set % of your bankroll, you are, in effect, always losing your biggest wager and winning your smallest. Many handicappers are not enthralled with the time involved in calculating the "Kelly Advantage." If you're on a hot streak and play an inordinate number of games on one days, you're risking a large % of your bankroll at one time. A higher winning % is required to break even. There are, however, benefits to be derived from this system. By hitting your estimated or higher winning %, your bankroll will grow geometrically as opposed to arithmetically in straight flat betting. This "compound interest" will manifest itself in a relatively short period of time. Also, it automatically sizes your bet when trying to catch up and reduces the wagers when ahead.^TOP

% OF BANKROLL Respected sportsman and handicapper Lem Banker has said, "Never bet more than you can comfortably afford to lose." This is essential to remember when determining the size of your bankroll and the amounts of your bets. Whatever method or system of money management you have chosen for yourself (flat betting, Kelly Criterion, etc.), it's a must that you set aside a specific amount that you can comfortably afford to lose and stick by it. You should never wager any amount that would change your lifestyleþwin or lose. After determining the amount you'll have to wager, your next step should be dividing it up into segments or parts that you believe will provide the best chance of staying in action when you hit that inevitable losing streak. You may want to put more emphasis on a part of the seasonþperhaps the first month or the last monthþin which you have traditionally had the most success. Don't risk too big a % of your bankroll at one timeþyou might go broke and be out of action altogether. The risk is too great, considering the mental and physical strains you would encounter when vainly trying to catch up. Once you have determined the dollar amount that you'll use as a bankroll, a good rule of thumb is never to risk more than 25% of that amount on any one day or session. If you find that there is an abnormal number of games to be bet so that your regular wagers would result in going over your allotted % of bankroll, it may be a good idea to reduce the size of your bet on each game so as to not exceed the total amount allocated.^TOP

FLAT BETTING The term "flat betting" describes a very simple money management systemþyour amount wagered on each game is the same, depending on the % of bankroll you're wagering at a particular time. There are distinct advantages to this system. Flat betting eliminates the need to assess a rating system on each wager. In truth, many who rate games by assigning them numerical values or probabilities are doing so arbitrarily and without real logical reason. Some merely assign differing values to the games based on past history or feelings they have. The degree of emphasis they put on a particular event can hardly be measured other than by their arbitrary assignment of a chance of winning. In reality, what are the real chances of that single event winning? Is a "lock" game 100% sure of winning? If it were, we'd never need to make another play in our entire lives. Of course, no game can be a "lock," and the basis of flat betting insures the player that he won't be conned into going broke on any of these picks. Another problem that flat betting eliminates is that of the psychological aftereffects that often come when preferring one game over another. For example, if you bet three games and win two, you're at 67% and plus one game if flat betting. On the other hand, if you bet the same three games but double the wager on of the contests, you could still pick 67% but end us a loser if the double-up game ends as a loser. Such a situation can be devastating to your psyche, as a good job of handicapping is negated by poor money management. Flat betting makes it easier to stick to specific rules you may have set up for yourself, such as avoiding road favorites or bucking certain systems you believe are strong. Also, you won't find a play that looks good enough to play more than a single unitþall of your wagers will be the same. In the long run, you'll probably end up betting the same amount of games, but letting your winning % grind out a nice profit.^TOP

DOUBLING UP PROCEED WITH CAUTION! There are some in the wagering community who advocate the practice of "doubling up" on bets to catch up when behind, reasoning that one isn't likely to lose two games in a row. Some even believe in continuing to double up until you've recouped your losses. Some believe this approach similar to a coach that takes to the passing game when behind allows one to "catch up" the quickest. There are, however, numerous problems with this style of betting. First of all, when you're losing and begin to push yourself for more plays to "double up" and catch up, your psychological state isn't conducive to intelligent handicapping. Forcing bets just to catch up can be an easy way to play yourself out of a season. Second, when doubling up it takes only three consecutive losses to fall seven units behind. To then catch up, you'd have to risk 7 units 8 to go up one unit and that's not worth the risk. Not doubling up would have created a more manageable deficit. Cold streaks can spell disaster when doubling up. It's much healthier for you and your bankroll to wager the same amount on each game ("flat betting") and let your winning % grind out a profit. Unfortunately, greed dooms most gamblers and their bankrolls somewhere along the line.. There are also those who advocate doubling up when ahead in order to take advantage of hot streaks. Again, this could be a quick way to turn a celebration into a wake you're putting more emphasis on a game or set of games than you normally might, for no other reason than avarice. Sure, it's a good idea to step up your wagers when ahead, since you're evidently handicapping the games well or riding a hot streak. But doubling up could lead to ruin just as fast when winning as losing, since you only need to lose half as many games to wipe out your earnings. And this again will lead to problems with your psyche and ability to handicap games with a clear mind.^TOP
GIVE YOURSELF THE BEST OF IT! It is fundamental in this business never to get the worst of the line. The shrewd gambler always shops for the best available price. Value! The difference between a half-point here and a point there may be an important one. Games are handicapped so accurately that the player who grabs every possible pointspread advantage can end up winning 10 to 20 games more a season than the player who accepts the worst of the numbers. Winning the close ones will more than likely determine the bottom line of your profit-and-loss statement. Winning players must shop carefully to avoid getting the worst of any price or line on a game. If you're serious about this, you owe it to yourself to get the best of the line. While the pointspread may make the difference in no more than 15% of the NFL games, shopping for value in the numbers makes common sense. Each football weekend, several college and NFL pointspread decisions may be decided by 1-point or less from the consensus Las Vegas line. That's why a shrewd pointspread shopper has a distinct advantage, especially with so many close games being played. Let's also not forget that the smart wagerer manages his (or her) money in a sensible manner, so as to capitalize on a hot hand. Self-discipline is the secret. Without it you can pick 65% winners and end up in the hole. With it you can bat /500 and never get hurt!^TOP

YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE A WINNER EVERY WEEK! We have always thought this quote, made years ago by the owner of a Las Vegas hotel, pretty much summed up the plight of most wagerers: "The typical gambler will permit himself to lose far more than he will permit himself to win. This is the biggest edge the house owns." If you analyze the traits of most players, you'll probably find that most don't make a real attempt at winning big until they get behind! As many wagerers find out, this is usually a quick route to a busted bankroll, since you're forcing many more picks (and for larger amounts) than you normally might. Self-discipline (or lack thereof) and unrealistic expectations can also contribute to this problem. What many don't realize is that there is no rule stating that you must be a winner every week. A few losing weeks shouldn't destroy a wagerer. One should have enough sense to realize that there are ebbs and flows in this exercise and that everybody who wagers will lose nearly as many as he winsþand that's only if he's a good wagerer! Don't place yourself in a position where lady luck can knock you out of business. To do this, keep cool and don't wager more than a designated bankroll on any given day. By staying in action continuously you up your chances for encountering success, but when the tide is against you stay calm so you'll be able to play another day when the fats turn in your favor. Never try to recoup all of your losses in one day!^TOP

A GOOD "BYE"?
The conventional thinking on "bye teams" goes something like this. The in-season week off allows time for players to heal their bumps & bruises, and for coaches to get a little sleep, rejuvenate their creative "juices," and develop a few surprises for upcoming opponents. With healthier players with rested legs, armed with some new schemes, teams coming off their bye week figure to have some nice edges when facing a team that had to play the previous week.
Not so fast, mein freund.
Over the past three seasons (1999-'02), "bye teams" facing "non-bye teams" are only 30-46-1 vs. the spread (39.5%). And the worst offenders are the home favorites (8-24 vs. the number!). Home dogs were 6-6; road favorites and picks 7-6; and road dogs 9-10-1.
So far in the 2002 season, "bye teams" vs. "non-byes" are 5-3 vs. the spread (home favorites 3-12; home dogs 1-1).
My thinking on the previous non-success of the bye home favorites goes something like this. Most coaches give their players several days off during their bye week, with the players taking full advantage, taking mini-vacations, going hunting or fishing, visiting family/friends who they haven't seen since the start of training camp, and/or often showing up on the sidelines of their college teams to lend support and encouragement.
In taking this time off from the regular grind of the long season, the players not only rest their bodies, but they also rest their minds. It's no surprise they lose a bit of their hard-earned "edge," and also no surprise they have trouble regaining their previous rhythm once the "bullets start flying" again on their next game day. Meanwhile, their non-bye opponent is usually in its regular practice routine, with many teams eager to rebound from a loss the previous week.
The numbers of the past three years show that a word to the wise should be sufficient. Generally speaking, pointspread-wise it's better for an NFL team to have its regular rhythm than the extra rest.