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nfl football betting

NFL football betting
When it comes to betting on NFL football, there is one constant, never-changing truth. The recreational or 'square' bettors like to take the favorite and the 'over.' This group makes up the biggest portion of the betting public and they are the ones that keep the sports books profitable.
The public's love of the favorite can be taken even one step further. Certain teams take on a 'public team' status due to their success on the field. When the public develops this love affair with a particular team, they respond with heavy betting action. Teams with big-name stars, explosive offenses and a good record tend to take on a public team status. To the hordes of recreational bettors, laying the points on a public team is of no concern. Even huge point spreads will not weaken their zeal to bet on these squads.
It's in a bookie's best interest to try to balance out the action on as many games as possible each week. If successful, they are assured a profit because of the vig (commission) that is charged on sports bets. However, when public teams are involved it becomes increasingly difficult to get balanced action.
Therefore, bookies are faced with a quandary. If they set the line without the public in mind, they have to open their doors to the professionals in order to assure two-way action. The professional bettors - or 'wise guys' - make a living at the expense of the sports books. A more attractive option is for books to 'shade' the favorite. This involves tacking an extra point or two onto the line for the favored team. If the bookmaker thinks Philadelphia is a seven-point favorite over a much weaker team, for example, the line could be set at nine because the bookie knows they everyone will be betting the favorite.
This strategy, in effect, pits the bookie against the public - which is more desirable than going against the wise guys. If the bookies are adding points to the favorite, this would obviously create some chances to find value in going against these public teams. In addition to the extra points that bookmakers add to public team, they must also move their lines according to incoming handle. When going against public teams, it is often best to wait until right before game time to place a wager. This gives the smart player the best chance at getting the number he or she wants.
"The savvy bettor knows that when you see a real public team playing a not so public team, if you wait close to game time generally the public drives the number up a point or maybe a point and a half," said Leo Shafto, head oddsmaker for Royal Sports. "There certainly (can be) value (there)."
Public teams tend to gain popularity after the first month of the NFL season. Teams that go 3-0, and especially 4-0, are the ones that the public will jump on with reckless abandon. According to Bob Scucci, race and sports book director for the Stardust Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, three wins to start the season doesn't necessarily win over the public. Four wins, however, is golden in the public's eyes.
"That (four) seems to be the critical number," he said. "The teams that go 4-0 usually make the playoffs and most of the time go pretty deep into the playoffs. We notice it after the fourth victory. That's when the money starts piling on. It's deep enough into the season where (bettors) know the team is not a fluke. There aren't four bad teams in the NFL."
Case in point is a team like Jacksonville, which is 3-0 straight up and against the spread with wins over Buffalo, Denver and Tennessee. Scucci said that he doesn't expect to get a huge amount of public action on the Jaguars this week for their home game against Indianapolis (the Jags were four-point dogs at press time). If the team does win that critical fourth game, they should become a public team - especially with teams like San Diego, Kansas City and Houston on the horizon.
Scucci thinks the public teams this year will be the Eagles, Minnesota, the Colts, Seattle and Oakland. The Raiders may seem like a surprise to be on this list. This is one of the rare teams that holds public team status from year to year unless they have a disastrous campaign like they did last season. Even though they are only 2-1 on the season, Scucci has been seeing a lot of renewed interest in the team from the public bettors. It doesn't hurt that the Stardust gets a large influx of Raider fans visiting every weekend from California.
One notable absence from Scucci's list of public teams is New England. This squad went 14-2 last season ATS en-route to a Super Bowl victory. The Stardust director thinks that this team does not have the (offensive) glitz and glamour that is a prerequisite for public team status. There's no McNabb to Owens, Manning to Harrison or Culpepper to Moss. The notion that the Pats are not a favorite of the general betting public is probably the only way the team managed to do so well ATS last season.
"It's a funny kind of phenomenon," commented Scucci. "The Pats win (so many) games in a row and for some reason the public still doesn't jump on this team. Maybe it is because they don't do anything terribly exciting. But all they ever do is win."
The public can be fickle and bookmakers must be able to adjust when public teams fall out of favor with the bettors. Kansas City is a great example. This was the most popular public team from last year. It had everything the public loves - an explosive offense and a roster full of Pro Bowlers. During its 9-0 start last year, the public developed a love affair with the team that has continued into the early part of this season. This is despite the fact that the team showed signs of being one dimensional down the stretch in 2003.
Now the Chiefs are 0-3 and winless ATS. The public has dropped them like a bad habit. The books were slow to adjust on the team after a big home loss to Carolina on Monday Night Football, Kansas City's second loss. They were installed as more than a touchdown favorite last week at home versus Houston. Scucci said the Stardust got beat pretty bad on the game because there was heavy action from the public on the Texans. The books had to rethink their strategy and this week the Chiefs are a 5 ½-point dog in Baltimore. Scucci believes the line could be close to seven by game time.
It is just as important for bookmakers to determine which teams will become the darlings of the public as anything else they do to prepare the number for a game. Mistaking where the public money will land could mean potential disaster for the books and potential profits for the die-hard students of football betting. NFL Handicapping ApproachFor the most part, there are two general approaches to sports handicapping - objective and subjective. The objective approach to sports handicapping deals with the pure mathematics of a particular matchup by analyzing the available statistics and crunching the numbers to come up with a pick. The subjective approach brings in other intangibles in a given situation such as the psychology of the opposing teams, their need/desire to win, historical trends, scheduling and injuries, to name just a few. You may have noticed that most handicappers tend to concentrate on one approach more than the other. The problem is that these two approaches are complimentary, and as a result, handicappers that spend too much time focusing on one approach and not both can tend to be inconsistent, not only from week to week, but from year to year. has successfully combined the two approaches into one in order to bring you the best pro football handicapping service on the internet. Between our computer program and our experienced staff of pro football handicappers, we are able to provide top quality NFL football picks over the long term on a consistent basis - no matter how many or how much factors change.

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Pro Football Handicapping StyleOur pro football handicapping style is to focus on the quality, not the quantity of the weekly NFL football picks we make. Whether we have two NFL picks or twelve NFL picks, we share them with all of our paying members and encourage equal amounts bet on each game. We don't promise a fixed number of football betting picks or "rate" our NFL picks. We know that if we guarantee a fixed number of weekly NFL football picks, there will inevitably come a time when we would be forced to post lower quality NFL predictions we don't feel confident in, simply to meet our promised quota. Obviously, a situation like this could end up costing our members money. Therefore, you will get our best NFL football picks against the NFL line, each and every week, no matter how many there are. We will not post 'second-rate' football betting picks that we would be hesitant to wager our own money on.
Speaking of 'second-rate', we don't rate our pro football picks for much the same reason. Does it make you, the bettor, feel any better to lose money on a 'one-star' NFL football pick as opposed to a 'five-star' NFL football pick? The bottom line is you lost! Now, maybe you bet less money on the 'one-star' NFL pick, but what if you had lost the 'five-star' NFL pick instead? No. That's not our style. We encourage our members to bet an equal amount on each NFL betting pick we offer (in accordance with your personal money management) and if you lose, it's our fault. We're not going to hide behind the excuse that "It was just a one-star NFL football pick anyway - you really shouldn't have expected it to have a good chance to win in the first place."
Integrity of our NFL Football Handicapping ServiceAs you well know, the internet is full of SCAMdicappers. Trying to distinguish the good guys from the bad guys can sometimes be almost impossible. At , we have our members' best interest in mind. We track the NFL odds at a variety of different sportsbooks in order to give you an indication of what a favorable NFL line would be for each of our NFL picks. We don't advertise sportsbooks on our website and those sportsbooks whose NFL odds we follow are always subject to change at our discretion based upon their reputation and customer service as reported by various sportsbook reviews.
We have forgone the Sports Monitors in order to have our NFL predictions "Publicly Monitored" due to the questionable relationships between some sports monitors and handicapping services. Instead, we have elected to post our weekly NFL football picks to our site after the games are in progress. In this manner, all of our weekly football picks and NFL predictions are available for your viewing and you can be assured that the past performance record we display on our site is a true and accurate reflection of our NFL handicapping ability. You will find many sports handicapping services either do not display their handicapping performance or do so after the games have completed, so you’re not quite sure if you can rely on their performance history.
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