basics
basics, casino games hold for keno exchange
freeroll Rules and Online Blackjack Simulations royal flush lines online sports betting football gambling Craps Terms gamble
casino gambling chips winners
Monday, September 17, 2007
nfl football betting
NFL football betting
When it comes to betting on NFL football, there is one constant, never-changing truth. The recreational or 'square' bettors like to take the favorite and the 'over.' This group makes up the biggest portion of the betting public and they are the ones that keep the sports books profitable.
The public's love of the favorite can be taken even one step further. Certain teams take on a 'public team' status due to their success on the field. When the public develops this love affair with a particular team, they respond with heavy betting action. Teams with big-name stars, explosive offenses and a good record tend to take on a public team status. To the hordes of recreational bettors, laying the points on a public team is of no concern. Even huge point spreads will not weaken their zeal to bet on these squads.
It's in a bookie's best interest to try to balance out the action on as many games as possible each week. If successful, they are assured a profit because of the vig (commission) that is charged on sports bets. However, when public teams are involved it becomes increasingly difficult to get balanced action.
Therefore, bookies are faced with a quandary. If they set the line without the public in mind, they have to open their doors to the professionals in order to assure two-way action. The professional bettors - or 'wise guys' - make a living at the expense of the sports books. A more attractive option is for books to 'shade' the favorite. This involves tacking an extra point or two onto the line for the favored team. If the bookmaker thinks Philadelphia is a seven-point favorite over a much weaker team, for example, the line could be set at nine because the bookie knows they everyone will be betting the favorite.
This strategy, in effect, pits the bookie against the public - which is more desirable than going against the wise guys. If the bookies are adding points to the favorite, this would obviously create some chances to find value in going against these public teams. In addition to the extra points that bookmakers add to public team, they must also move their lines according to incoming handle. When going against public teams, it is often best to wait until right before game time to place a wager. This gives the smart player the best chance at getting the number he or she wants.
"The savvy bettor knows that when you see a real public team playing a not so public team, if you wait close to game time generally the public drives the number up a point or maybe a point and a half," said Leo Shafto, head oddsmaker for Royal Sports. "There certainly (can be) value (there)."
Public teams tend to gain popularity after the first month of the NFL season. Teams that go 3-0, and especially 4-0, are the ones that the public will jump on with reckless abandon. According to Bob Scucci, race and sports book director for the Stardust Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, three wins to start the season doesn't necessarily win over the public. Four wins, however, is golden in the public's eyes.
"That (four) seems to be the critical number," he said. "The teams that go 4-0 usually make the playoffs and most of the time go pretty deep into the playoffs. We notice it after the fourth victory. That's when the money starts piling on. It's deep enough into the season where (bettors) know the team is not a fluke. There aren't four bad teams in the NFL."
Case in point is a team like Jacksonville, which is 3-0 straight up and against the spread with wins over Buffalo, Denver and Tennessee. Scucci said that he doesn't expect to get a huge amount of public action on the Jaguars this week for their home game against Indianapolis (the Jags were four-point dogs at press time). If the team does win that critical fourth game, they should become a public team - especially with teams like San Diego, Kansas City and Houston on the horizon.
Scucci thinks the public teams this year will be the Eagles, Minnesota, the Colts, Seattle and Oakland. The Raiders may seem like a surprise to be on this list. This is one of the rare teams that holds public team status from year to year unless they have a disastrous campaign like they did last season. Even though they are only 2-1 on the season, Scucci has been seeing a lot of renewed interest in the team from the public bettors. It doesn't hurt that the Stardust gets a large influx of Raider fans visiting every weekend from California.
One notable absence from Scucci's list of public teams is New England. This squad went 14-2 last season ATS en-route to a Super Bowl victory. The Stardust director thinks that this team does not have the (offensive) glitz and glamour that is a prerequisite for public team status. There's no McNabb to Owens, Manning to Harrison or Culpepper to Moss. The notion that the Pats are not a favorite of the general betting public is probably the only way the team managed to do so well ATS last season.
"It's a funny kind of phenomenon," commented Scucci. "The Pats win (so many) games in a row and for some reason the public still doesn't jump on this team. Maybe it is because they don't do anything terribly exciting. But all they ever do is win."
The public can be fickle and bookmakers must be able to adjust when public teams fall out of favor with the bettors. Kansas City is a great example. This was the most popular public team from last year. It had everything the public loves - an explosive offense and a roster full of Pro Bowlers. During its 9-0 start last year, the public developed a love affair with the team that has continued into the early part of this season. This is despite the fact that the team showed signs of being one dimensional down the stretch in 2003.
Now the Chiefs are 0-3 and winless ATS. The public has dropped them like a bad habit. The books were slow to adjust on the team after a big home loss to Carolina on Monday Night Football, Kansas City's second loss. They were installed as more than a touchdown favorite last week at home versus Houston. Scucci said the Stardust got beat pretty bad on the game because there was heavy action from the public on the Texans. The books had to rethink their strategy and this week the Chiefs are a 5 ½-point dog in Baltimore. Scucci believes the line could be close to seven by game time.
It is just as important for bookmakers to determine which teams will become the darlings of the public as anything else they do to prepare the number for a game. Mistaking where the public money will land could mean potential disaster for the books and potential profits for the die-hard students of football betting. NFL Handicapping ApproachFor the most part, there are two general approaches to sports handicapping - objective and subjective. The objective approach to sports handicapping deals with the pure mathematics of a particular matchup by analyzing the available statistics and crunching the numbers to come up with a pick. The subjective approach brings in other intangibles in a given situation such as the psychology of the opposing teams, their need/desire to win, historical trends, scheduling and injuries, to name just a few. You may have noticed that most handicappers tend to concentrate on one approach more than the other. The problem is that these two approaches are complimentary, and as a result, handicappers that spend too much time focusing on one approach and not both can tend to be inconsistent, not only from week to week, but from year to year. has successfully combined the two approaches into one in order to bring you the best pro football handicapping service on the internet. Between our computer program and our experienced staff of pro football handicappers, we are able to provide top quality NFL football picks over the long term on a consistent basis - no matter how many or how much factors change.
NFL Pick PerformanceOur pro football handicapping performance far exceeds other sports handicappers when it comes to NFL football. We attribute this to the fact that not only do we use a combined approach to football handicapping, but we also dedicate ourselves exclusively to NFL football. Instead of spending time and energy trying to handicap basketball, hockey and football all in the same week, we focus purely on the NFL. As a result, we have the knowledge, experience, and time it takes to make weekly NFL picks that have a high probability of winning. We don't have to meet a deadline every day to come up with the night’s basketball, baseball, or hockey pick before we can start thinking about making an NFL pick. We’re ALWAYS thinking about the NFL, and we take our time to make sure we’re making weekly NFL football picks that give our members the best chance of winning. Our NFL handicapping performance reflects this dedicated approach.
Pro Football Handicapping StyleOur pro football handicapping style is to focus on the quality, not the quantity of the weekly NFL football picks we make. Whether we have two NFL picks or twelve NFL picks, we share them with all of our paying members and encourage equal amounts bet on each game. We don't promise a fixed number of football betting picks or "rate" our NFL picks. We know that if we guarantee a fixed number of weekly NFL football picks, there will inevitably come a time when we would be forced to post lower quality NFL predictions we don't feel confident in, simply to meet our promised quota. Obviously, a situation like this could end up costing our members money. Therefore, you will get our best NFL football picks against the NFL line, each and every week, no matter how many there are. We will not post 'second-rate' football betting picks that we would be hesitant to wager our own money on.
Speaking of 'second-rate', we don't rate our pro football picks for much the same reason. Does it make you, the bettor, feel any better to lose money on a 'one-star' NFL football pick as opposed to a 'five-star' NFL football pick? The bottom line is you lost! Now, maybe you bet less money on the 'one-star' NFL pick, but what if you had lost the 'five-star' NFL pick instead? No. That's not our style. We encourage our members to bet an equal amount on each NFL betting pick we offer (in accordance with your personal money management) and if you lose, it's our fault. We're not going to hide behind the excuse that "It was just a one-star NFL football pick anyway - you really shouldn't have expected it to have a good chance to win in the first place."
Integrity of our NFL Football Handicapping ServiceAs you well know, the internet is full of SCAMdicappers. Trying to distinguish the good guys from the bad guys can sometimes be almost impossible. At , we have our members' best interest in mind. We track the NFL odds at a variety of different sportsbooks in order to give you an indication of what a favorable NFL line would be for each of our NFL picks. We don't advertise sportsbooks on our website and those sportsbooks whose NFL odds we follow are always subject to change at our discretion based upon their reputation and customer service as reported by various sportsbook reviews.
We have forgone the Sports Monitors in order to have our NFL predictions "Publicly Monitored" due to the questionable relationships between some sports monitors and handicapping services. Instead, we have elected to post our weekly NFL football picks to our site after the games are in progress. In this manner, all of our weekly football picks and NFL predictions are available for your viewing and you can be assured that the past performance record we display on our site is a true and accurate reflection of our NFL handicapping ability. You will find many sports handicapping services either do not display their handicapping performance or do so after the games have completed, so you’re not quite sure if you can rely on their performance history.
The Value of our NFL Football PicksWe ask what we believe to be a fair price for our pro football handicapping services. We work year-round to do our best to provide top quality NFL football picks weekly during the NFL season. At less than $10.00/week for a Season Membership, you will find many football handicapping services that charge more than and some that charge less. However, in the long run, you will find no other NFL handicapping.
http://www.enterbet.com
Football Betting, NFL odds and NFL lines, NFL betting, betting on NFL Football, NFL football betting stats, betting odds, NFL football, NFL Football Betting. NFL Football.NFL betting, NFL football betting online. NFL football game betting, line, National Football League, NFL football sports betting lines, Football Parlay Odds, NFL schedules, football money lines, football Teaser odds, American Football Betting Odds and LinesNFL. Superbowl betting, NFL football betting online.NFL Betting guide, matchups, injuries, transactions, betting trends, daily odds, online sports betting, football betting, NFL betting, basketball betting, Online NFL bet, Sports betting.
Labels: betting, football odds, NFL bet, nfl bets, nfl football betting
Friday, December 8, 2006
basics
The Basics of Baseball Betting
While football and basketball are the most popular sports to bet on, baseball could be the easiest for beginners once you understand how to read the money line. Money line gambling is the primary wagering option for baseball bettors, which involves betting on the straight-up game outcome with no consideration for a point spread. Oddsmakers use the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite or expected winner and less money on the underdog to balance the action on both sides.
looking or waiting to be found
For example, our favorite newbie bettor Emily is a huge fan of the Boston Red Sox, who are favored in a majority of their games as the defending World Series champions. The money line on the Red Sox against the last-place Tampa Bay Devil Rays might be -170, with sportsbooks making bettors wager significantly more money on the Sox than the Devils Rays because it is more unlikely that the Rays would win the game. In this particular case, the -170 means a bettor who likes the Sox would need to lay $170 down to win $100. Conversely, Tampa Bay would be +150 based on the common 20-cent line used in baseball (the difference between -170 and +150), meaning a $100 bet could earn $150.
Keep in mind that sportsbooks only make a commission (also known as juice or vigorish) when the favorite loses. So if Boston loses, the book pays off $150 to underdog bettors while collecting $170 from favorite bettors, for a $20 profit. If Boston wins as expected, favorite bettors collect $100 while dog bettors lose $100 – resulting in zero profit for the bookmaker. The bigger the favorite, the less likely the underdog will win (and the less likely the book will collect their commission). To compensate for making a profit less often, sportsbooks increase the spread between the favorite’s lay price and the underdog’s payoff, making their commission bigger when the longshot underdog does win.
Some quality sportsbooks even offer a 10-cent line on baseball (also called the "dime" line), which would net a $160 profit. The "dime" line is especially appealing due to the fact that it offers half the juice as a normal football or basketball bet, so the bettor is charged half as much for making a wager.
A critical factor to consider when betting on baseball is the importance of starting pitching. With football and basketball, team vs. team handicapping is key - but with baseball you have double the chance to find an edge since both team and pitching match-ups can offer a winning edge. Starting pitchers obviously play an important role in the outcome of the game, and oddsmakers make the money line with them in mind.
One example would be the Red Sox being listed as a bigger favorite with ace Curt Schilling on the mound than when they send Tim Wakefield out there. Since Schilling is obviously the better pitcher, oddsmakers take that into consideration and would make him a bigger favorite than Wakefield since Schilling gives the Sox a better chance to win.
Money Line in Over/Under Totals
Total bets in baseball are based upon the combined number of runs scored by both teams. For example, if the Over/Under total of a game is posted at 9, and the combined runs of both teams adds up to less than 9, the Under wins; if the combined runs add up to over 9, the Over wins; if exactly 9, the total bet pushes.
Since there is much less scoring in baseball than football or basketball (making each run more significant) bookmakers often need to adjust the money line of the total in an effort to more subtly even the action. Imagine a game in which the total of 9 is too high, but the total of 8.5 is too low. The standard money line on totals is -110 each way, but in this case the money line would likely be adjusted to 9 UNDER -120, meaning you can bet under (the slightly too high number of 9), but the trade off is you must risk $120 to win $100; if you're willing to bet over (the slightly too high number of 9), you can do so with the appealing money line of +100.
The standard money line on totals is -120/+100 and is often stated in shorthand as 9 OVER (or 10 UNDER, etc.), but the money line can be adjusted even further. Example: 10 UNDER -140 (the over would pay +120).
If you’re new to racing, this basic Guide to Betting should help answer some of the ... Here we explore some of the basics to help you understand betting Free tips on sports betting basics. Experts guide you through football, basketball, and baseball gambling rules and recommend top information on sports Roulette basics, betting, systems, methods, gambling strategies. Roulette Systems, Wizard of Odds: Challenge, Test in Casinos
|