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Football Betting Tips
Making football bets online is so easy. There are countless folks just like you who have discovered how easy it is to bet on football games from home. All the tools you need are your trusty computer, a good internet connection and a valid credit card.
To try to start making some serious money on football bets, just join a reputable sportsbook, read the news or consult your favorite handicappers, pick the football games you like, and wager away. Simple, isn't it?
Here are the different kinds of football bets:
Straight BetsIn this kind of bet, the team you bet on must win by the point spread given at the time of the bet. The odds are $1.10 to win $1.00 (-110) unless otherwise indicated. Due to changing events, the point spread may fluctuate at any time.
For example, let's say you bet $110.00 on Miami -7 to beat Buffalo +7. If Miami wins by more than 7 points, then you win $100.00. Therefore, the total payout including the initial bet, would now be $210.00. If Miami only wins by 7 points then the game is considered "no action" and all money is returned to you. If Miami wins by less than 7 points, then the bet is lost.

Totals (also known as Over/Under bets)If you make this bet, you must lay $1.10 to win $1.00 on whether the actual combined scores of two teams will either be over or under a certain predetermined number, called the total for the game.
For example, let's say you lay $220.00 on the OVER in the Miami vs. Buffalo game. The total for the game is set at 45. If both teams' combined score is more than 45, then you win $200.00. If the combined score is equal to 45, the game is considered "No Action" and the money will be returned to you. If the combined score is less than 45, then you lose the bet.
Of course, if you lay $220.00 on the UNDER in that game and the combined score is less that 45, then you win.

Money Line BetsIf you make this football bets, then the team you wagered on just has to win the game. The amount you lay or take for each game may vary. The money line that is read to at the time of your bet is the money line you keep regardless of any line movement.
For example, let's say you bet on Miami -160 at Buffalo +260. If you laid $160.00 and Miami wins, you win $100.00. If you laid $100.00 on Buffalo, then you win $260.00.

Halftime BetsA halftime bet is simply a bet only on the score of the first, or second half of a contest. The line offered will be a point spread, a money line, or a combination of the two, but the bet applies only to the score of the halftime period specified.
All bets must go the full half for action (first-half and second-half). All half-time bets are calculated the same as a straight bet unless otherwise indicated. There are no teaser plays or buying of points on half-times. On half time bets the overtime period is included as part of the 2nd half.

Parlays (also known as Multiples)A parlay is a bet of 2 or more teams (selections) or propositions in no particular order. All teams wagered on in a parlay must win. If there is a tie, the parlay reverts down to the next lowest number for payoff.
For example, if you select 4 teams, and one ties, the parlay becomes a three team parlay. For a 2-team parlay -- a tie and win becomes a straight bet (-110) payout.

TeasersA teaser is a selection of two or more teams in one bet in which the point spread is adjusted in the bettor's favor. The number of teams selected and the number of points selected determines the payout odds. A "Tie" or "No Action" and a "Win" on a two team teaser shall constitute a "No Action" bet. A "Tie" or a "No Action" and a "Loss" on a two team teaser shall constitute a "Losing" bet. Ties on a three or more team teaser shall revert to the next lowest betting bracket. For example a tie on a three-team teaser becomes a two-team teaser.

Futures and PropositionsFuture bets are based on the outcome of events that happen each year. All bets are final.There will be no payouts until the conclusion of the specified season.
Proposition plays are bets based on the outcome of events. Odds change daily and all bets are considered action for the odds quoted at the time of the bet.
In the event that the selection (person, team, or other) the wagerer bets upon does not participate in the game/event due to injury, etc., no refunds are usually made.
College Football Betting Tips
College Football Early Season Betting Strategies
Money Line Underdogs and Halftime bets


Uncertainty = Bad lines No major betting sport has as much year to year player and coaching staff turnover than college football. There are always several new head coaches, even more new coordinators, and most importantly hundreds and hundreds of new players. The average Division 1 school will return only slightly more than half of their 22 starters from the previous year. No one, not even coaches themselves, know exactly how their new players will perform in live game situations. No position is too important to escape the turnover. There will be just as many new quarterbacks seeing time this year as new centers, running backs, and safeties. JC transfers and freshman will be asked to fill major roles in their first year. Unknown backups that made huge strides in the off-season will be poised for stardom, while many others will disappoint. Meanwhile, new coaches will be implementing new schemes & strategies. New coordinators in particular can have a major effect on early season totals depending on their philosophies. It is this time of the season, namely the first three weeks, that the oddsmakers will have the most difficult time putting out accurate numbers. While it may be difficult to figure out which games are off, just being aware that these will be the weakest lines of the season can give you an advantage. Halftime Wagering Halftime Wagering is easily my favorite and most effective early season betting strategy. First, it is important to know how half-time lines are determined. They come from a combination of the original full game line and the first half score. Only in major television games does it matter what is actually happening in the game when it comes to the opening second half line. No sportsbook, or odds service for that matter, can keep an eye on what is going in every college game on a given Saturday. This allows handicappers an opportunity to have a significant advantage on the book in certain situations. Since many early season games are going to have a bad opening line to begin with, and the halftime line itself is partly determined from the opening line, it is a given that the second half lines will often be soft. It is a good idea to identify key unknowns before the game, such as the ability of a new quarterback or which team will control the line of scrimmage. Often times these question marks can be answered in the first half and enable you to make a much more informed decision on a second half wager than you were able to before the game. Often times you will need luck, such as a close halftime score despite one team clearly outplaying the other. It may take some time to get used to, but second half wagering can be very rewarding, particularly early on in the season.
More tips: Be sure to use a sportsbook that offers second half lines on all NCAA games and always use more than one book to shop for the best line. Because you are betting on a half and not a full game, ½ points and key numbers are even more significant than usual. Always get your plays in as early as possible because the lines move fast and early money is usually on the right side.
Money Line Underdogs Every year with no exception there are going to be surprise teams and disappointing teams in college football. There are going to be upsets! If you like an underdog of 10 points or less, consider playing a portion of your wager on the money line. Split your wager in half for smaller spreads (5 or less) while putting 10-20% of your wager on the money line for the bigger spreads. Money line wagers have inherent value because teams are always trying to actually win the game, not cover a spread. This strategy is something to consider in all college underdog wagers, but even more so early on in the season. HANDICAPPING THE NFL PRESEASON
Most professional handicappers know NFL preseason games can be quite rewarding. But bettors also know they must be selective. NFL exhibitions are, after all, just glorified practice games for the billion-dollar league. The key is betting on the teams that “want” a game more than the other side, or betting on the side that will use the far better personnel that day.
THE FORMULA
No, not a handicapping formula. But a coaches’ “preseason progression formula” has emerged in the 1990s-00s. It’s something like this. Use the starters for the first couple of series or the first quarter in Game One, then the backups for a quarter-plus, then the reserves. In Game Two, starters go 1-2 quarters, then the backups one-plus quarters, then the reserves. Game Three is really the dress rehearsal for the regular season, with starters usually going into the third quarter, often trying some of the new stuff they’ve added in training camp; backups might go the rest of the way. Most of the time in the Final Game, the starters play only briefly (unless they need the work), or not at all, with backups and reserves going most of the way, with special focus on players who are “on the bubble” to make the roster.
THE COACHES’ AGREEMENT
There is a general “Gentlemen’s Agreement” among coaches in the NFL preseason, kind of like this: “I will play my starters only against your starters, my backups vs. your backups, reserves vs. your reserves, and I’ll limit blitzes and kick blocks to obvious situations in the first two games.” Fortunately for handicappers, not all the coaches agree to this agreement all the time. Many coaches get “steamed” after a bad performance, or two straight losses. Some coaches (such as Bill Cowher or Tom Coughlin) like to blitz any time they feel like it. A few will sometimes re-insert starters late in a game in order to lock up a win!
SOME EDGES
Biggest Edge of All. The use of better personnel in that game, either due to injuries, competition, or quality depth, especially at QB. Most first-time NFL QBs will struggle late in games when working with reserve personnel, often producing more points for the opposition than for their own team.
Teams with a Game under Their Belt. Such teams did well last year when facing teams playing their first exhibition, going 7-2 vs. the spread. However, “belted teams” are only 13-14 vs. the spread the L6Ys; 24-23 the L8Ys.
Teams off to an 0-2 Start. Coaches get very antsy when their teams are 0-2, partly because the last game of the preseason is often a “throwaway,” with coaches focused primarily on the upcoming reg.-season opener. 0-2 teams (when not facing another 0-2 team) were 4-1 vs. the spread last year, 8-6 the L2Ys, 23-15 the L6Ys, and 60% the L17Ys.
Jets vs. Giants. They won’t say so, but this is not “just another exhibition” when these two meet, at least to the Jets, who have covered the last 10 meetings! (Wow!)
TOTALS
Do the “Unders” Rule in Early Exhibitions? Sometimes, such as in 2001, when there were only 5 “overs” vs. 13 “unders” in the combined prelim week and full Week One of the preseason schedule (and only 7 “overs” vs. 26 “unders” the first 2+ weeks, by the way). However, the “overs” still lead the “unders” 69-61 in the first 1+ weeks over the L7Ys.


BREAKING EVEN SHOULD MAKE YOU A WINNER!
The few experienced and successful sportsmen we knew firmly believe that if you break even in 100 predictions you should wind up a winner. That's not because 50-50 is considered spectacular. Rather, considering the streaks that are inevitably involved in each season, a sensible wagerer will press a winning streak (without getting out of control) and back off from a losing trend. We realize this strategy is much easier said than done, and if you're not a serious follower of a sport, you might as well forget it. The uneducated wagerer is at a tremendous disadvantage here. The reason? Successful streak following is a matter of feel and intuition. A thorough knowledge of yourself as a wagerer and of the teams is essential. When you are going good, step up the pace. It does take a certain amount of courage to press your normal wager or number of plays, but a winning streak must be exploited. If your luck begins to run bad, retreat and use caution. If you don't have a good flow going, there's no reason to push it. When can you spot a streak coming on? It probably shouldn't be a set number of consecutive wins or losses that triggers you into action. Even if you're a sound handicapper, if your top selections are accompanied by lingering doubt, don't force it. On the other hand, if you've been doing fairly well and can almost visualize the final score in the next day's newspaper, the positive vibes have grabbed you and you should press forward. By using streaks to your advantage, you should be able to capitalize and make the most of your hot hand (and not get destroyed by a cold streak).

KEEP YOUR RECORDS STRAIGHT! Sports wagering is no different than business...you must keep accurate records to be successful. Most all of the notable sports bettors keep detailed, accurate records. These should include:
. The $ amount of each wager; . Who was bet on (home favorite, home dog, etc.); . Type of wager (straight, parlay, etc.); . A chart of teams you went withþand against.
If you wish to go one step further, visual aids (graphs and charts) can prove even more enlightening. You records should be quite revealing. They should uncover your most fertile wagering areas, as well as your most troublesome spots. After those trends are apparent, you'll be more inclined to focus your wagering activity in the profitable areas. Also, it's a good idea to keep track of how your "last minute," "heat of battle," or "just watching" wagers have performed. Again, the key is to isolate your most profitable wagering areas. Granted, all of this record keeping can be time consuming. If nothing else, however, you'll become a more intelligent wagerer. If you're already successful, it should make you even better!

QUANTITY VS. QUALITY When are 60% winners better than 70% winners? Not often. When managing money, however, we want the most money to manage, and that will often mean wagering on numerous games. There are two divergent schools of thought on the number of games to wager. Some believe in highly-selective wagering, playing as few as 3-5 games per week. Others believe in playing every game on the board, reasoning that if you know your stuff, why hold back? In truth, the best range lies somewhere in between, though probably closer to the lower example. If one played every game, the exposure to luck (both good and bad) will probably have too much effect on the selections. Besides, the vigorish ("juice") will eat one alive. On the other hand, if someone rigidly holds to 3-5 games per week, and a card appears with 10-12 attractive plays, how is the list to be trimmed? Inevitably, after honing down a list, one will often discover that many winners were left off. This isn't to say that you should play games you don't like. Rather, play the games you like based on the parameters you've set for yourself. This is vitally important when considering quantity vs. quality. Your goal should be to attain the most positive units at season's end. Of course, picking 80% on all of the games would be sensational, but it's not realistic. A goal of 60-70% winners is difficult, but it's attainable (especially if using the Pro Football Handicapping Software Engine!), and it can be more profitable as well as more practical.So, how can less be more? If you were selective and played five games per week for 16 weeks (80 games), and managed the near-impossible trick of 70% winners, it would calculate like this; 56 winners, minus the 24 losers, equals +32 units. With the "juice" calculated, that's roughly +30 units. On the other hand, if you played 15 games per week for 16 weeks (240 games), and connected on 60% of those wagers, you'd be +48 units (144 minus 96), and after the "juice" would be approximately +38 unitsþfar ahead of the previous scenario.
EXOTIC WAGERING Webster's defines exotic as "strikingly or excitingly different or unusual." And that's the reason most gamblers get involved with exotic wagersþexcitementþand the chance to make a "big score." Exotic wagering includes betting cards, parlays, teasers, round robins, ad infinitum in the sports area. One might as well include bingo, keno, slot machines, and lotteries in this group, since the odds of winning are roughly the same. Simply put, most knowledgeable handicappers avoid those types of wagers. Even sports book administrators admit they aren't good wagers, but they'll gladly accept that money from the customer for the same reason. The most commonly wagered exotic plays are teasers or parlays. A parlay is when one bets a multiple of teams (2 or more) at once and that all must win or the wager is lost. A teaser allows one to subtract between 5 and 7 points from the favorite or add the same number of points to the underdog. The odds payoff is lower as you subtract or add points. You must play at least two teams, usually three. It's difficult enough to pick the pointspread winner of any game at a proficient level over the long run. So, knowing that the odds are not stacked in your favor at the outset with the exotic wagers, why on earth dig yourself into that ditch?
MORE EXOTIC WAGERING The chart below details the facts about parlays: the harder it is to pick winners, the less proportionate the payoff. Simply put, parlays don't offer payoffs at true odds.
Winners True Odds Parlay Odds Takeout
2 for 2 3:1 2:1 33% 3 for 3 7:1 5:1 28% 4 for 4 15:1 10:1 33% 6 for 6 63:1 19:1 69% 8 for 8 255:1 149:1 42%
Parlay cards require that one plays the odds listed on the card. There's no advantage of being able to shop for numbers, as one might playing one game at a time. True, shrewd handicapping can reduce your odds to better than pure mathematical chance, but the parlay payoff cards are still too hard to consistently beat. Do teasers look more appealing? Keep in mind that in the NFL, the pointspread normally affects between only 10-15% of the games played. So, if one can pick the winner of a game straight- up, the points won't usually matter one way or the other. The spread comes into play more often in college football, but the payoff odds are still a disadvantage. Many books also mislead the bettors in their methods of stating the odds. For example, in a two-team parlay the odds might be stated at "3 for 1" on the card, leading some to believe that they're receiving 3:1. In truth, "3 for 1" translates into 2:1, because one only gets back 3 unitsþtwo of theirs, plus the unit wagered. That's a significant difference from 3:1, in which one gets back 4 total unitsþthree from the book, plus the one unit wagered.

WORDS FOR THE WISE There are three key components of sports wagering: Selection of pointspread winners at a profitable ratio. Shopping for value when attacking the line. Proper money management.
As in most endeavors, success in sports wagering requires dilligence, savvy, and discipline. At the beginning, be sure that your record-keeping techniques be utilized. Detailed, accurate records of your past activity can provide you with clues as to where your most profitable areas lie, and equally as important, where the most failure is encountered. Concentrating on more "fertile" areas should improve your chances for success. It's also important to be flexible in the number of game syou play. Don't lock yourself into a set number of games per week. How often have you made up your mind to play only three games when eight or nine spots have looked attractive, only to end up losing the few you played? On the other hand, if you're set on playing ahigh number of games, you'll inevitable end up forcing plays you don't like and suffering the consequences. Don't be as concerned about picking a high % of winners, either; rather, llok for quality in your selections and strive to get ahead as many units as possible.

THE KELLY CRITERION PART I The Kelly Criterion is a complex math treatise first presented by a Bell Telephone engineer. Several years ago, it was adapted to sports wagering by a respected Las Vegas writer, computer analyst and handicapper, Huey Mahl. At that time, he was one of the chief advocates of using optimal betting methodsspecifically the Kelly Criterion in sports wagering. This method presents a formula to determine what proportion of your bankroll to wager (risk) on each game in order to realize the maximum possible profit with the smallest probability of loss. This formula holds regardless of the order or sequence of wins and losses (with certain limitations). The Kelly Criterion is a method to help you compound a greater amount of interest on your bankroll than the "simple" interest gained by using a flat bet method. In using this method to determine a proper wagering amount, you must first have the confidence that you can beat the pointspread at a reasonable winning percentage. If this reasonable winning percentage is 60% winners (tough, but achievable), the Kelly Criterion is calculated thusly: 60% (winners) minus 1.1 x 40, or 60 minus 44=16. The number gives us the "Kelly Advantage," or optimum betting amount for maximizing return. You apply this betting % to your bankroll to determine the amount of your wager; if your bankroll is $3,000, your wager would be .16 x $3000, which equals $480 (this includes the vigorish, so your actual expected return on a winning wager would be .91 x $480, or $436.80).

THE KELLY CRITERION PART II Let's refresh your mind and again provide the formula for the "Kelly Advantage," a formula used to derive the optimal interest from your bankroll. 60% (projected winners) minus 1.1 x 40, or 60 minus 44=16. Apply that betting pct. (16%) to your bankroll to determine the amount of your wager. If your bankroll is $3000, your wager would be .16 x $3000, or $480. Keep in mind that to make the "Kelly Advantage" work, it requires that you project a reasonable % of winners. Please, be realistic projecting anything above 60% winners and calculating it into your "Kelly Advantage" is inviting disaster. With the Kelly Method, you're able to take advantage of winning streaks by betting more. When you're on a losing streak (as everybody will be on occasion), following the Kelly System automatically reduces the $ amount of your wager. True, there are negative aspects of the Kelly Criterion. Since all of your wagers are based on a set % of your bankroll, you are, in effect, always losing your biggest wager and winning your smallest. Many handicappers are not enthralled with the time involved in calculating the "Kelly Advantage." If you're on a hot streak and play an inordinate number of games on one days, you're risking a large % of your bankroll at one time. A higher winning % is required to break even. There are, however, benefits to be derived from this system. By hitting your estimated or higher winning %, your bankroll will grow geometrically as opposed to arithmetically in straight flat betting. This "compound interest" will manifest itself in a relatively short period of time. Also, it automatically sizes your bet when trying to catch up and reduces the wagers when ahead.

% OF BANKROLL Respected sportsman and handicapper Lem Banker has said, "Never bet more than you can comfortably afford to lose." This is essential to remember when determining the size of your bankroll and the amounts of your bets. Whatever method or system of money management you have chosen for yourself (flat betting, Kelly Criterion, etc.), it's a must that you set aside a specific amount that you can comfortably afford to lose and stick by it. You should never wager any amount that would change your lifestyleþwin or lose. After determining the amount you'll have to wager, your next step should be dividing it up into segments or parts that you believe will provide the best chance of staying in action when you hit that inevitable losing streak. You may want to put more emphasis on a part of the seasonþperhaps the first month or the last monthþin which you have traditionally had the most success. Don't risk too big a % of your bankroll at one timeþyou might go broke and be out of action altogether. The risk is too great, considering the mental and physical strains you would encounter when vainly trying to catch up. Once you have determined the dollar amount that you'll use as a bankroll, a good rule of thumb is never to risk more than 25% of that amount on any one day or session. If you find that there is an abnormal number of games to be bet so that your regular wagers would result in going over your allotted % of bankroll, it may be a good idea to reduce the size of your bet on each game so as to not exceed the total amount allocated.

FLAT BETTING The term "flat betting" describes a very simple money management systemþyour amount wagered on each game is the same, depending on the % of bankroll you're wagering at a particular time. There are distinct advantages to this system. Flat betting eliminates the need to assess a rating system on each wager. In truth, many who rate games by assigning them numerical values or probabilities are doing so arbitrarily and without real logical reason. Some merely assign differing values to the games based on past history or feelings they have. The degree of emphasis they put on a particular event can hardly be measured other than by their arbitrary assignment of a chance of winning. In reality, what are the real chances of that single event winning? Is a "lock" game 100% sure of winning? If it were, we'd never need to make another play in our entire lives. Of course, no game can be a "lock," and the basis of flat betting insures the player that he won't be conned into going broke on any of these picks. Another problem that flat betting eliminates is that of the psychological aftereffects that often come when preferring one game over another. For example, if you bet three games and win two, you're at 67% and plus one game if flat betting. On the other hand, if you bet the same three games but double the wager on of the contests, you could still pick 67% but end us a loser if the double-up game ends as a loser. Such a situation can be devastating to your psyche, as a good job of handicapping is negated by poor money management. Flat betting makes it easier to stick to specific rules you may have set up for yourself, such as avoiding road favorites or bucking certain systems you believe are strong. Also, you won't find a play that looks good enough to play more than a single unitþall of your wagers will be the same. In the long run, you'll probably end up betting the same amount of games, but letting your winning % grind out a nice profit.

DOUBLING UP PROCEED WITH CAUTION! There are some in the wagering community who advocate the practice of "doubling up" on bets to catch up when behind, reasoning that one isn't likely to lose two games in a row. Some even believe in continuing to double up until you've recouped your losses. Some believe this approach similar to a coach that takes to the passing game when behind allows one to "catch up" the quickest. There are, however, numerous problems with this style of betting. First of all, when you're losing and begin to push yourself for more plays to "double up" and catch up, your psychological state isn't conducive to intelligent handicapping. Forcing bets just to catch up can be an easy way to play yourself out of a season. Second, when doubling up it takes only three consecutive losses to fall seven units behind. To then catch up, you'd have to risk 7 units 8 to go up one unit and that's not worth the risk. Not doubling up would have created a more manageable deficit. Cold streaks can spell disaster when doubling up. It's much healthier for you and your bankroll to wager the same amount on each game ("flat betting") and let your winning % grind out a profit. Unfortunately, greed dooms most gamblers and their bankrolls somewhere along the line.. There are also those who advocate doubling up when ahead in order to take advantage of hot streaks. Again, this could be a quick way to turn a celebration into a wake you're putting more emphasis on a game or set of games than you normally might, for no other reason than avarice. Sure, it's a good idea to step up your wagers when ahead, since you're evidently handicapping the games well or riding a hot streak. But doubling up could lead to ruin just as fast when winning as losing, since you only need to lose half as many games to wipe out your earnings. And this again will lead to problems with your psyche and ability to handicap games with a clear mind.
GIVE YOURSELF THE BEST OF IT! It is fundamental in this business never to get the worst of the line. The shrewd gambler always shops for the best available price. Value! The difference between a half-point here and a point there may be an important one. Games are handicapped so accurately that the player who grabs every possible pointspread advantage can end up winning 10 to 20 games more a season than the player who accepts the worst of the numbers. Winning the close ones will more than likely determine the bottom line of your profit-and-loss statement. Winning players must shop carefully to avoid getting the worst of any price or line on a game. If you're serious about this, you owe it to yourself to get the best of the line. While the pointspread may make the difference in no more than 15% of the NFL games, shopping for value in the numbers makes common sense. Each football weekend, several college and NFL pointspread decisions may be decided by 1-point or less from the consensus Las Vegas line. That's why a shrewd pointspread shopper has a distinct advantage, especially with so many close games being played. Let's also not forget that the smart wagerer manages his (or her) money in a sensible manner, so as to capitalize on a hot hand. Self-discipline is the secret. Without it you can pick 65% winners and end up in the hole. With it you can bat /500 and never get hurt!

YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE A WINNER EVERY WEEK! We have always thought this quote, made years ago by the owner of a Las Vegas hotel, pretty much summed up the plight of most wagerers: "The typical gambler will permit himself to lose far more than he will permit himself to win. This is the biggest edge the house owns." If you analyze the traits of most players, you'll probably find that most don't make a real attempt at winning big until they get behind! As many wagerers find out, this is usually a quick route to a busted bankroll, since you're forcing many more picks (and for larger amounts) than you normally might. Self-discipline (or lack thereof) and unrealistic expectations can also contribute to this problem. What many don't realize is that there is no rule stating that you must be a winner every week. A few losing weeks shouldn't destroy a wagerer. One should have enough sense to realize that there are ebbs and flows in this exercise and that everybody who wagers will lose nearly as many as he winsþand that's only if he's a good wagerer! Don't place yourself in a position where lady luck can knock you out of business. To do this, keep cool and don't wager more than a designated bankroll on any given day. By staying in action continuously you up your chances for encountering success, but when the tide is against you stay calm so you'll be able to play another day when the fats turn in your favor. Never try to recoup all of your losses in one day!

A GOOD "BYE"?
The conventional thinking on "bye teams" goes something like this. The in-season week off allows time for players to heal their bumps & bruises, and for coaches to get a little sleep, rejuvenate their creative "juices," and develop a few surprises for upcoming opponents. With healthier players with rested legs, armed with some new schemes, teams coming off their bye week figure to have some nice edges when facing a team that had to play the previous week.
Not so fast, mein freund.
Over the past three seasons (1999-'02), "bye teams" facing "non-bye teams" are only 30-46-1 vs. the spread (39.5%). And the worst offenders are the home favorites (8-24 vs. the number!). Home dogs were 6-6; road favorites and picks 7-6; and road dogs 9-10-1.
So far in the 2002 season, "bye teams" vs. "non-byes" are 5-3 vs. the spread (home favorites 3-12; home dogs 1-1).
My thinking on the previous non-success of the bye home favorites goes something like this. Most coaches give their players several days off during their bye week, with the players taking full advantage, taking mini-vacations, going hunting or fishing, visiting family/friends who they haven't seen since the start of training camp, and/or often showing up on the sidelines of their college teams to lend support and encouragement.
In taking this time off from the regular grind of the long season, the players not only rest their bodies, but they also rest their minds. It's no surprise they lose a bit of their hard-earned "edge," and also no surprise they have trouble regaining their previous rhythm once the "bullets start flying" again on their next game day. Meanwhile, their non-bye opponent is usually in its regular practice routine, with many teams eager to rebound from a loss the previous week.
The numbers of the past three years show that a word to the wise should be sufficient. Generally speaking, pointspread-wise it's better for an NFL team to have its regular rhythm than the extra rest.

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