football gambling
Caravaggio, The Cardsharps, c. 1594.The term gambling has had many different meanings depending on the cultural and historical context in which it is used. Currently, in Western societies, it has an economic definition, referring to "wagering money or something of material value on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods". Typically the outcome of the wager is evident within a short period of time.
The term gaming in this context typically refers to instances in which the activity has been specifically permitted by law. The two words are not mutually exclusive; i.e.: a “gaming” company offers (legal) “gambling” activities to the public.
Legal aspectsBecause many religious authorities generally disapprove of gambling to some extent, and because gambling can have adverse social consequences, most legal jurisdictions limit gambling to some extent. Some Islamic nations prohibit gambling; most other countries regulate it.[3]
Many jurisdictions, local as well as national, either ban or heavily control (by licensing) gambling. Such regulation generally leads to gambling tourism and illegal gambling. The involvement of governments, through regulation and taxation, has led to a close connection between many governments and gaming organizations, where legal gambling provides significant government revenue, such as in Monaco or Macau.
Under US federal law, gambling is legal in the United States, and states are free to regulate or prohibit the practice. Gambling has been legal in Nevada since 1931, forming the backbone of the state's economy, and the city of Las Vegas is perhaps the best known gambling destination in the world. In 1976, gambling was legalized in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and in 1990, it was legalized in Tunica, Mississippi; both of those cities have developed extensive casino and resort areas since then. Since a favorable US Supreme Court decision in 1987, many Native American tribes have built their own casinos on tribal lands as a way to provide revenue for the tribe. Because the tribes are considered sovereign nations, they are often exempt from state laws banning gambling, and are instead regulated under federal law.
Because contracts of insurance have many features in common with wagers, insurance contracts are often distinguished under law as agreements in which either party has an interest in the "bet-upon" outcome beyond the specific financial terms. E.g.: a “bet” with an insurer on whether one's house will burn down is not gambling, but rather insurance — as the homeowner has an obvious interest in the continued existence of his/her home independent of the purely financial aspects of the "bet" (i.e., the insurance policy).
There is generally legislation requiring that the odds in gaming devices are statistically random, to prevent manufacturers from making some high-payoff results impossible. Since these high-payoffs have very low probability, a house bias can quite easily be missed unless checking the odds carefully.[4]
Gambling variablesThere are three variables common to all forms of gambling:
How much is being wagered, the initial stake (in money or material goods). The predictability of the event. In mechanical or electronic gambling such as lotteries, slot machines and bingo, the results are random and unpredictable; no amount of skill or knowledge (assuming machinery is functioning as intended) can give an advantage in predictability to anyone. However, for sports events such as horse racing and soccer matches there is some predictability to the outcome; thus a person with greater knowledge and/or skill will have an advantage over others. The odds agreed between the two (or more) parties to the wager; where there is a house or a bookmaker, the odds are (quite legally) arranged in favour of the house. The expected value, positive or negative, is a mathematical calculation using these three variables. The amount wagered determines the scale of an individual wager (bet); the odds and the amount wagered determine the payout if successful; the predictability determines the frequency of success. Finally the frequency of success times the payout minus the amount wagered equals the "expected value" The skill of a gambler lies in understanding and maneuvering the three variables so that the "actual value" is positive over a series of wagers.
Types of gambling
Casino gamesWhile almost any game can be played for money, and any game typically played for money can also be played just for fun, some games are generally offered in a casino setting.
"Beatable" casino gamesA highly skilled player with a well-designed strategy can create a positive mathematical expectation on games such as:
Blackjack—with card counting unless a continuous shuffler is used Pai Gow Poker and Tiles—player-dealt Parimutuel betting Poker (Also recognized as a game of skill) Slot machines—where progressive jackpots or bonuses reach a certain break-even point Sports betting Video poker—with proper pay table and/or progressive jackpot
"Unbeatable" casino games A pachinko parlor in Tokyo, Japan.These games have a negative expectation regardless of how few or many games someone plays. Nevertheless, this does not stop gamblers from having false beliefs (the "gambler's fallacy") that their actions or "way of playing" will influence the outcome.
Baccarat (punto banco) Caribbean Stud Poker Casino war Craps (though some believe the use of dice control can beat the game) Fan-Tan Faro Keno Let it ride Pachinko Pyramid Poker 3-card poker 4-card poker Red Dog Roulette Sic Bo Spanish 21—without counting Texas Hold'em Bonus Poker
Non-casino gambling games Mahjong tiles.Gambling games that take place outside of casinos include Bingo (as played in the US and UK), dead pool, lotteries, pull-tab games and scratchcards, and Mahjong.
Other non-casino gambling games include:
Card games, such as Liar's poker, Bridge, Basset, Lansquenet, Piquet, Put, Teen patti Coin-tossing games such as Head and Tail, Two-up* Confidence tricks such as Three-card Monte or the Shell game Carnival Games such as The Razzle or Hanky Pank Dice-based games, such as Backgammon, Liar's dice, Passe-dix, Hazard, Threes, Pig, or Mexico *Although coin tossing isn't usually played in a casino, it has been known to be an official gambling game in some Australian casinos[5]
Fixed-odds gamblingFixed-odds gambling and Parimutuel betting frequently occur at many types of sporting events. In addition many bookmakers offer fixed odds on a number of non-sports related outcomes, for example the direction and extent of movement of various financial indices, the winner of television competitions such as Big Brother, election results,[6]. Interactive prediction markets also offer trading on these outcomes, with "shares" of results trading on an open market.
Parimutuel betting Tokyo Racecourse in Tokyo, Japan.Main article: Parimutuel bettingOne of the most widespread forms of gambling involves betting on horse or greyhound racing. Wagering may take place through parimutuel pools; or bookmakers may take bets personally. Parimutuel wagers pay off at prices determined by support in the wagering pools, while bookmakers pay off either at the odds offered at the time of accepting the bet; or at the median odds offered by track bookmakers at the time the race started.
Sports bettingMain article: sports bettingBetting on team sports has become an important service industry in many countries. For example, millions of Britons play the football pools every week.
Arbitrage bettingMain article: arbitrage bettingArbitrage betting is a theoretically risk-free betting system in which every outcome of an event is bet upon so that a known profit will be made by the bettor upon completion of the event, regardless of the outcome. Arbitrage betting is a combination of the ancient art of arbitrage trading and gambling, which has been made possible the large numbers of bookmakers in the marketplace, creating occasional opportunities for arbitrage.
Other types of bettingOne can also bet with another person that a statement is true or false, or that a specified event will happen (a "back bet") or will not happen (a "lay bet") within a specified time. This occurs in particular when two people have opposing but strongly-held views on truth or events. Not only do the parties hope to gain from the bet, they place the bet also to demonstrate their certainty about the issue. Some means of determining the issue at stake must exist. Sometimes the amount bet remains nominal, demonstrating the outcome as one of principle rather than of financial importance.
Betting exchanges allow consumers to both back and lay at odds of their choice. Similar in some ways to a stock exchange, a better may want to back a horse (hoping it to win) or lay a horse (hoping it to lose, effectively acting as bookmaker)
Staking systemsMain article: betting strategyMany betting systems have been created in an attempt to "beat the bookie" but most still accept that no system can make an unprofitable bet profitable over time. Widely-used systems include:
Fixed stakes – a traditional system of staking the same amount on each selection. Fixed profits – the stakes vary based on the odds to ensure the same profit from each winning selection. Due-column betting – A variation on fixed profits betting in which the bettor sets a target profit and then calculates a bet size that will make this profit, adding any losses to the target. Kelly – the optimum level to bet to maximize your future median bank level. Martingale – A system based on staking enough each time to recover losses from previous bet(s) until one wins.
Other uses of the term "gambling"Many risk-return choices are sometimes referred to colloquially as "gambling." Whether this terminology is acceptable is a matter of debate, but generally the following activities are not considered gambling:
Emotional or physical risk-taking, where the risk-return ratio is not quantifiable (e.g., skydiving, campaigning for political office, asking someone for a date, etc.) Insurance is a method of shifting risk from one party to another. Insurers use actuarial methods to calculate appropriate premiums, which could be considered similar to calculating gambling odds. However, insurers can set their premiums to obtain a long term positive expected return. Situations where the possible return is a secondary reason for the wager/purchase (e.g., buying a raffle ticket to support a charitable cause) Investments are also usually not considered gambling, although some investments can involve significant risk. Examples of investments include stocks, bonds and real estate. Starting a business can also be considered a form of investment. Investments are generally not considered gambling when they meet the following criteria:
Positive expected returns (at least in the long term) Economic utility Underlying value independent of the risk being undertaken Some speculative investment activities are particularly risky, but are still usually considered separately from gambling:
Securities derivatives, such as options or futures, where the value of the derivative is dependent on the value of the underlying asset at a specific point in time (typically the derivative's associated expiration date) Foreign currency exchange (forex) transactions Prediction markets
Psychological aspectsMain article: Problem gambling Though many participate in gambling as a form of recreation or even as a means to gain an income, gambling, like any behavior which involves variation in brain chemistry, can become a psychologically addictive and harmful behavior in some people. Reinforcement schedules may also make gamblers persist in gambling even after repeated losses.
The Russian writer Dostoevsky portrays in his novella The Gambler the psychological implications of gambling and how gambling can affect gamblers. He also associates gambling and the idea of "getting rich quick", suggesting that Russians may have a particular affinity for gambling. Dostoevsky shows the effect of betting money for the chance of gaining more in 19th-century Europe. The association between Russians and gambling has fed legends of the origins of Russian roulette.
A new breed of football handicappers-- #1: the well informed
"If you don’t know where to go to get the real skinny on the trends and numbers, you won’t be able to take full advantage when you wager on the game. You can get all this however if you visit TwoMinuteWarning. This truly is a remarkable site!" -- Casino Player Magazine (December 2000)
The majority of people who bet on sports lose money. They think because they watch football games, read newspapers, and can name the starting skill position stars for each team that they can pick winners. Many believe that football handicapping is nothing more than "knowing the game" at this fan level. Nothing could be further from the truth. Indeed some of the more knowledgeable football people, including ex-players and coaches, are very poor at trying to predict the outcomes of upcoming games.
True football handicapping involves doing research into what wins, what actually matters in forecasting how matchups are likely to play out. Informed football handicappers know the gambling realities of their sport, and when asked a question relating to point spread likelihoods (eg "do you think that the injuries to Chicago's secondary will hurt them this week?") will point to actual research:
using the NFL injury report to pick winners
Turnover Difference and subsequent spread performance
quantifying motivation for NFL teams
-- #2: the innovators
"TwoMinuteWarning features the most innovative -- and, from a gambling perspective, powerful -- NFL stats you're likely to find from any source." -- Las Vegas Sun (Sept. 5th, 2001)
Informed bettors with football handicapping skills often set out to handicap the NFL using tools such as angles, spread records, injury reports, motivation and other situational analysis. Many turn to traditional avenues of prediction and base their wagers on looking at points, yards, first downs and other conventional NFL stats.
However, another approach is to try and create better numbers -- new statistics and ratings that better reflect the true level of teams’ performances and which would prove to be more accurate and more predictive in terms of projecting scores going forward. In short they might use methods like these as the backbone of their NFL football handicapping:
betting underdogs with a Drive Chart stats overlay
Past Performance Sheets
better ratings for Football Handicapping
-- #3: the interpreters
"To uncover the secrets of NFL success, TwoMinuteWarning has correlated teams' statistics in key categories with their overall records..." -- New York Times (Nov. 28th, 2004)
Even innovators find though that once they develop football handicapping approaches that succeed, they quickly breed imitators. While it's great to have a goal of beating the point spread by looking at information others don’t have, sometimes it comes down to more skillfully interpreting common data. Meticulous research and a full understanding of the importance of a factor in determining an outcome play a role, but so does taking handicapping to the next level:
the "Ultimate Prediction Machine"
'Full Story' game simulations
correlated parlays in NFL football
-- #4: the bottom-liners
"Here is a secret, maybe the most valuable secret in this whole book: The people behind TwoMinuteWarning produce excellent NFL lines... TwoMinuteWarning does a great job of predicting by how much one team should beat another" -- Sharp Sports Betting (August, 2001)
It's sometimes said that college professors live in an "ivory tower" -- in other words they are removed from reality. The same can be said of some football handicapping bettors, who have their heads so buried in their research projects that they lose touch of the original objective, namely to win money.
Bottom line football handicapping masters will utilize anything that will help them improve their overall wagering results. They are intimately aware of the available and best lines, and how the betting markets as a whole are moving on a given event. Often they have a knack for processing information from a wide array of sources to produce high percentage comprehensive handicapping plays:
Best Bets
Handicapping Tools
line tracking/bet tracking software
-- what does your football handicapping future hold?
"A winning percentage that many professional bettors would envy." -- Las Vegas Sun (read the full article)
We know firsthand that football betting is a winnable game. The odds are not set by mathematical formulas with a built-in inherent edge for the house, but rather the lines are 'educated' opinions designed in part to split the betting action. No one on this planet can set perfect lines, particularly for NFL football.
We encourage you to learn how to handicap. People who make their own sports betting picks, whether for NFL football or another sport, will derive more enjoyment and satisfaction out of the activity, and frequently be more successful than if they simply follow a random tout's overly hyped picks.
Join the new breed of football handicapping masters!
To find out more about TwoMinuteWarning and what we offer, please see:
- What the press says about TwoMinuteWarning- Comparing NFL Handicapping Services- NFL Picks that are 'Ready to Win' in 2005: our suite of tools to attack the lines this season
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Sportsbook Gambling History
Sportsbook gambling in the past three decades: Common on the factory floor and boardroom alike, the development in the repute of both legal and illegal sports gambling can be attributed to many component included:
The ever- growing mass media marketing of sports. The suffusion of sporting events in the media has ameliorated the public's familiarity with various kinds of sports. Cable television and satellite technology has made it possible to bring the games live and direct to the Sportsbooks. Sports like football, baseball, and basketball have major contracts with television providers, off course, they are three of the most popular sports for wagering.
The federal gambling excise tax drop off. In the 1970s this tax loss from 10 percent to 2 percent to eventually 0.25 percent on January 1, 1983. This worked to alter many of those betting on sports illicitly to do so in a legal way. It made sports bookmaking a beneficial business chance.
The faded disgrace related with wagering. Notably, gambling, especially on sporting events, was decided a non victim atrocity or an atrocity in which the suspect has not acted in a way considered damaging to another.
The notification boom. The volume of information accessible to the sports gambler has increased to the point that the bettor does not have to be at an arduous detriment when compared to the knowledge possessed by the bookie.
The creation of more sportsbook in Las Vegas. Major Nevada resort hotels and casinos ascertained that in-house race and sports books were good for economic and generated consequential "foot traffic" via the casino.
Wagering on sporting activities embraces large sums of money, but just how ample may be hopeless to ascertain, because about all sportsbook betting is done lawlessly. Sports book betting is legal in only two states: Nevada, through casino sportsbooks, and Oregon, through a state lottery game certified, "Sports Action."
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