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Remember the days when you could just tell your friends to lay the points with the better team and they covered. Nowadays, the work it takes to handicap a football or basketball game is ten times what it was a few years ago, college or pro. Year after year the only thing that is consistent is that the bankroll is shrinking. That being said, let’s talk a little football.
It boils down to one thing, parity. Numerous skeptics of professional sports handicappers, most of whom have no idea what it takes to wager on sports professionally, say that the word “parity” is an excuse for handicappers when they lose games. Well, the proof of that is the fact that for last 10 years in the NFL the margin of victory is 5.7 points when all games were averaged out. Compare that with the margins of the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s, and you will find it was much higher. Free agency and the salary cap have given medium and small market franchises a way to narrow the gap in talent and be competitive.
Remember when the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers came into the league as expansion teams? Remember how inept and laughable they were? Regardless of the spread, the favorites usually killed them, covering by a landslide. Fast forward about 15 or so years to when Carolina and Jacksonville came into the league. In only their 2nd year, they BOTH were in the Playoffs and the Panthers were a quarter away from the Super Bow, as were the Jaguars for that matter. This proves that with enough depth on your team and with a salary cap that made to work for the players, even expansion teams have a chance.
Now let’s move to College Football. For starters, the athletes are in better shape. This is due in part to the enhances supplements, better nutrition and weight training, mini summer camps, off season conditioning, and the all around better equipment and faculties. When the NCAA lowered the scholarship players available to each team to 82, it opened up the path for schools from the WAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt to have a shot at some big name High School talent. This has allowed smaller schools in bigger conferences to get better athletes, thus allowing them to compete with the bigger name schools. This, in turn, has made a huge impact on how one handicaps the college games.
In 2003 alone, Five MAC schools beat big time programs on one single weekend, and one of them was a Top 5 team! Granted, these schools could not compete week in and week out with the big boys from the Big 12 or the Pac 10. However, from a handicapping standpoint, before laying the points, you better be confident that your team has their A game and are ready to play. You never know how a team is going to play, and if you have no “inside” knowledge and decide to lay the double digit favorite, odds are that will be a losing wager. Remember, margin of victory no longer counts in the NCAA, so teams are less likely to run up the scores.
Do you want real examples? How about Tampa Bay and Carolina last year? In the NCAA, ask Miami about West Virginia, or Kansas State about Marshall, or Missouri about Kansas, or Pittsburgh about Toledo or Alabama about Northern Illinois. In the long run, following these thoughts and utilizing them in your handicapping will increase your bankroll Look twice at the game if it is the Bengals or Lions at home in the NFL (getting more than 5 or 6 points) and any NCAA conference team at home getting double digits.
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