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It would be fair to say that, at the onset of the 2006 NFL season, several pundits gave the New York Jets a chance to qualify for the playoffs.
Of course, that chance was on par with an ice cube's survival in hell - but it was a chance nonetheless.
This week, the 4&Out crew comes to the startling realization that the Jets are now controllers of their own fate, the masters of their own domain. That green-and-white block of frozen water has not only survived the fiery depths of the NFL (not to mention the New York media) - but also wields a large amount of control over the AFC wild-card race as the regular season comes to a close.
Can the Jets close the deal? The crew discusses that topic, along with the tortoises making up the NFC wild-card race, who will be the most successful replacement QB in the playoffs and why Michael Vick is more enjoyable to watch than Brett Favre (despite what the Monday Night Football crew has led you to believe).
First Down:The Jets have the AFC by the proverbial throat this weekend.
Mike Halford: And it's time to move in for the kill.
Week 17 had shaped up to be one of the most compelling final stanzas in NFL history. Six AFC teams – Denver, New York, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Kansas City – had left themselves in position to challenge for the final two wild-card spots in the conference. Two games (Jaguars-Chiefs and Patriots-Titans) involved teams that had either already clinched or were looking to secure a postseason berth.
It was going to be a Sunday filled with cuticle chewing and scoreboard glancing.
And now it'll be decided by a pack of pirates who haven’t won since Halloween.
Rookie head coach Eric Mangini has a chance to lock up a playoff berth against Oakland this weekend. (AP Photo)Let us backtrack a bit. Thanks in large part to a 64-yard Leon Washington scamper on Monday night that keyed a 13-10 victory over the Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets have put themselves in the driver's seat for a postseason berth. With nine wins, the J-E-T-S eked past an ensemble of eight-win teams (the Bengals, Titans, Jaguars and Chiefs) and joined Denver (9-6) as the only teams in the conference who could control their own fate this Sunday.
For Eric Mangini’s charges, their destiny lies in a home date against the Oakland Raiders, a team that has lost eight straight and has yet to win a road game in 2006.
Week 17 Playoff Scenarios
NY Jets clinch with:
A win or tie. A Cincinnati loss or tie and a Jacksonville loss or tie. A Cincinnati loss or tie and a Tennessee win. A Denver loss and a Jacksonville loss. Cincinnati clinches with:
A win and a NY Jets loss. A win and a Denver loss and a Kansas City win. Tennessee clinches with:
A win and a Cincinnati loss or tie and a Denver loss and a Kansas City win. Jacksonville clinches with:
A win and a NY Jets loss and a Cincinnati loss or tie and a Tennessee loss or tie. Denver clinches with:
A win or tie. A Kansas City loss or tie. Kansas City clinches with:
A win and a Cincinnati loss or tie and a Denver loss and a Tennessee loss or tie. Unsurprisingly, the Jets come into the game as 13-point favorites, a position they've grown accustomed to in recent weeks. After being listed as underdogs in eight of their first 10 games, Gang Green has now been favored in three of its last six. Boasting an impressive 3-1 record against the spread as a favorite (10-5 ATS overall), you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone thinking the Raiders are a good bet either on the moneyline or ATS, given their road woes and a series of questionable efforts from their "star" players.
It’d be nice to see an otherwise horrible team mess with a playoff scenario, a la the 2003 Arizona Cardinals (if you recall, the 4-12 Cards upended the playoff-bound Vikings in the final week that year as eight-point home dogs), but don't count on much this weekend. With the Jets having something to play for and the Raiders nothing, at least one New York team will taste postseason football in January.
Adrian Brijbassi: Move the chains.
In this season of giving it away, one team was bound to step out of the abyss of ineptitude and claim a position of control. The Jets did that with their gutsy road win on Monday night. They’re a classic underdog – little in the way of talent, plenty of heart and hard work to make up for their deficits. Although no team in the NFL can be counted on to win when it’s supposed to, the Jets’ backers should feel confident about their chances Sunday, and not only because the Raiders are so bad. No way is a Namath-like prediction on the horizon (the Jets are 30/1 to win the Super Bowl, odds that are justly long), but New York is going to be a thorny foe in the playoffs. They will likely face either Indy or the New England, opponents who they badgered in regular-season meetings.
Second Down:Those bums can still get in?
MH: I can't believe the Carolina Panthers can still make the playoffs.
The NFC has become to the NFL what the Eastern Conference already is to the NBA. At the end of the regular season, both will offer up a handful of mediocre teams battling for the final playoff spots - which none of them really deserve.
It has been a long and frustrating season for the Carolina faithful. (AP Photo)Exhibit 1a (see below for 1b) - the Carolina Panthers. In a season that could only be described as a "complete and utter disappointment," the Panthers still somehow find themselves alive heading into the final week. Sure, they need some help come Sunday - Carolina must beat New Orleans, and pray that the Giants lose to the Redskins and the Packers lose to the Bears - but the fact that they even have a sniff at playoff football is nothing short of amazing.
The Panthers had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year - 10 of their 15 opponents have losing records. They don't deserve to get in, but there's a better-than-average chance they might. My hope? That all five 7-8 teams still alive for the postseason lose this weekend, sending a 7-9 team into the playoffs.
You gotta love the NFC.
AB: I can't believe the St. Louis Rams can still reach the postseason.
The St. Louis Rams will make the playoffs…
If they win at Minnesota on Sunday, and the Giants lose (or tie) Saturday night at Washington, and the Panthers lose (or tie) at New Orleans, and the Falcons lose (or tie) against the Eagles in Philadelphia.
The St. Louis Rams can also make the playoffs…
If they tie in Minnesota, and the Giants, Panthers, Falcons and Packers all lose.
Why do I get the feeling the Rams are going to make this all academic by neither winning nor tying the Vikings? Maybe it’s because the Rams are 7-15 in their last 22 road games.
Of all the sub-.500 contenders in the NFC who don’t belong in the postseason, the Rams have to be the least deserving.
They lost twice to NFC West champion Seattle on late field goals by Josh Brown; they lost to Arizona – by 14 points; they got blanked by Carolina; they dropped five straight games in midseason. Without a doubt, the Rams would be the ultimate back-in, if they do, indeed, get in.
Third Down:Of the replacement QBs about to enter the postseason – Tony Romo, Jay Cutler and Jeff Garcia – it is Garcia who stands the best chance at achieving success.
MH: He's calling the shots for the hottest team in the NFC.
Flashback: Sunday, Nov. 19
This was the day when many a sports scribe penned an obituary for the 2006 Philadelphia Eagles. With Donovan McNabb suffering a season-ending ACL tear and the team at 5-5, nobody gave this rudderless ship any chance of navigating playoff waters. The Eagles were, for all intensive purposes, dead men at sea.
Of course, these scribes forgot about the key facet of this nautical dichotomy – ducks take exceptionally well to water. So who better than a QB who’s been accused of, er, marching like a mallard to lead the Eagles to the postseason?
Jeff Garcia, the City of Brotherly Love is yours.
Jeff Garcia has turned around what looked to be a dead Eagles season. (AP Photo)The last five weeks have produced the most improbable story of the year – Garcia equaling the number of wins (four) that he accumulated for the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions from 2004-05. The Eagles going 4-1 (3-1-1 ATS) despite being listed as underdogs in four contests, while winning three consecutive divisional road games in Washington, New York and Dallas. And this Sunday, a chance to lock up the NFC East and a home playoff game in round one.
As far as postseason prognoses go, Garcia's pedigree gives him the edge over elevated signal callers like Romo and Cutler. He’s got three playoff games under his belt, including a victory over the Giants in 2002. And he’s surrounded by a veteran club that has been to the dance in five of the last six years.
For bettors, the Eagles might be one of the cleverest futures bets on the board (5/1) for the NFC Championship. If the Pittsburgh Steelers taught us anything a year ago, it’s that the playoffs are about momentum, not seedings. If Philly can do the business this weekend against Atlanta, they’ll head into the playoffs as winners of five straight, eerily similar to the 2005 Steelers, who ripped off four straight regular-season wins before marching to the Super Bowl as a wild-card team.
AB: Turnover.
The Eagles have rallied in part because of Garcia’s play and in part because of what you mentioned at the beginning – they’re expected to lose. Writers aren’t the only ones who’ve taken Philly too lightly. Opponents, though, will wake up now that the Eagles are poised to win the NFC East. They may be a tough out, but they will be out early in the playoffs.
Romo and the Cowboys are 15/1 to win it all – not a bad play. At times, he’s been the best quarterback in the league. At times, Dallas has appeared like the most complete team in the NFC. The Cowboys’ success on offense going forward will depend on T.O. With his playoff history, expect him to come alive in the next couple of weeks.
As for Cutler, the kid’s shown some presence the past couple of weeks. Denver’s got a very talented team. Although they’ve had an up-and-down season, the Broncos could again be a difficult challenge for the Patriots or Colts in the postseason.
Fourth Down:Brett Favre or Michael Vick: who would you rather see in the playoffs?
AB: Sentimentality is lame, give me entertainment value every time.
Michael Vick and Brett Favre are both fun to watch, for different reasons. Favre is a true icon; Vick is a wannabe. Yet, if you want excitement, Vick’s your guy. When he’s on, he’ll give a defense fits all day, performing remarkable feats in the open field and leaving jaws on rugs.
Michael Vick's amazing athleticism makes him a must-see every time he touches the field. (AP Photo)With Favre, fans will get a legend who fights admirably on every down, for every yard. If Favre had a better team around him, everyone would want to see him make a run for a second Super Bowl ring. These Packers, though, haven’t beaten anyone of note. They’re contending for a playoff spot because of the sorry state of the NFC. If Favre does get into the playoffs, the nation will likely watch him limp away from the spotlight, blown out by a superior team.
So, that’s one reason to opt for Vick. Another is we want to see upsets in January. Vick and the Falcons are more capable of knocking out a playoff team than Green Bay. If you have to choose which of these two QBs to watch, take the freakishness of Vick over the made-for-TV drama of Favre’s last stand.
MH: Move the chains.
Agreed - I'm not sure I can take yet another week of listening to football suits pay homage to a guy who should have retired three years ago. There are precious few players who induce fear in opponents during one-shot deals like a playoff game - Albert Pujols scares any major league pitcher, LeBron James freaks out any would-be defender, and Michael Vick keeps NFL coordinators up at night. Of course, Vick's wide receivers keep him up at night too, as visions of dropsies dance in his head.

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