kentucky derby betting line

Seaside RetreatLongshot stands a great chance to be the longest price on the toteboard after being defeated by more than 32 lengths in the Blue Grass. Hard to imagine he's the 2006 version of Giacomo or even Closing Argument.

Showing UpThe unbeaten and lightly-raced colt has been playing catch up all spring, and that's a recipe for disaster on Derby Day. With only three career starts and persisting foot problems, he had better be a monster to overcome all this. His Lexington win was solid, but it's not representative of superstardom.

Comparing Seaside Retreat to the 2006 version of Giacomo or Closing Argument is a little tough to do. (Ed Reinke / Associated Press)

Keyed EntryHere's another colt with the ability to take the lead in this race if jockey Patrick Valenzuela wants it — which would only fan the flames of a speed duel. The aggressive, front-running jockey almost assures he'll be turning up the heat early …but he'll likely be gasping late.

Deputy GlittersThe Tampa Bay Derby winner just doesn't appear fast enough to keep pace with the fleet of early runners and will be hard-pressed to forge by in the stretch based on his past performances.

Sinister MinisterBob Baffert's one-trick pony needs to blaze early and pray for the Derby gods to smile upon him late. That scenario appears to be too tall of an order given the quality speed opposition in this race.

Storm TreasureThe horse dropped far back and made a pick-up-the-pieces run to be second in the Blue Grass stakes at 65-to-1 odds; will likely try similar tactics, but those in front will be much tougher to run down this time.

Flashy BullSuffered from some minor health issues when soundly defeated in the Florida Derby, but was a mark of consistency prior to that. He should be a big price and has a shot for a top-half finish, though getting a big paycheck is unlikely.

Private VowA top-notch, middle-distance runner at age two, he's still a major question mark around two turns and has made two uninspiring attempts this spring. Much respect for trainer Steve Asmussen, as he'll need his best training job ever to garner the roses.

SteppenwolferDeep closer will wait for the front-end fray to loosen up and then try to weave his way through the maze. He was no match for Lawyer Ron in Arkansas and may be the kind of teaser horse that lures many to his camp — but he needs so many things to go his way.

Bob and JohnOf the three Bob Baffert entrants (Sinister Minister and Point Determined being the others), he's certainly the most consistent and accomplished. However, Bob and John doesn't seem to have much upside — what you see is what you get, which has been pretty darned solid … but unspectacular. Can't envision a scenario where he gets trounced, but can't see him rising to slay the giants, either.

Five Who Could Light the Board
Bluegrass CatThe 2005 Remsen winner may be the single-most disappointing colt in this spring's class, sporting a marvelous pedigree and freshman credentials that made many think he was Todd Pletcher's best Derby hopeful ever. Losses in the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes have sent most supporters scurrying to the crow line at the mess hall. Sneaky suspicion here that he's not over the hill just yet, as Tampa and Keeneland are ridiculously peculiar surfaces that horses love or hate. Reminds me a little of 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch, and WinStar racing manager Elliott Walden used Tampa to tune-up Menifee before a 1998 Derby second. He could tank or wake up, but strong-finishing jockey Ramon Dominguez in the saddle won't hurt as a last-minute replacement for injured superstar John Velazquez.

BarbaroYes, he's unbeaten at 5-for-5. Yes, he's shown that distance will be no problem. Yes, he's ridden by the sport's current top dog, Edgar Prado. So why is Barbaro slotted for only a possible nibble at the minor prizes? The colt has tons of talent, but his turn of foot on turf and dirt are incomparable, with the former his considerably preferred surface. He's had an extremely light campaign as planned by Derby rookie trainer Mike Matz, which may work well in the equestrian world, but which has proven to be a poor option under the Twin Spires. Horses with only two preps to fail miserably in the Derby in recent years have been stellar by the time the Belmont rolls around (Lemon Drop Kid, Point Given, Birdstone, etc). And the Belmont is often run like a turf race — slower early pace, tactical speed and late acceleration a must. Barbaro could very well cap the Triple Crown with a score, but don't think it's coming in the series opener.

Jazil is the deep closer with the most potential. (Al Behrman / Associated Press)

JazilLong-winded colt has a big future for underrated trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He looks to be a few races away from his best effort, but if the race falls apart up front, Jazil is the deep closer with the most potential. Though pedigree is overrated in modern Kentucky Derby handicapping, it's hard to argue with his gene pool. The final time and final fractions of the Wood Memorial were miserably slow, which makes his visually impressive late rush a bit more tempered. Nonetheless, he has the ability to make a dent in this race at a very square price.

Sharp HumorSinister Minister looks like the only horse on paper that can truly run with this horse for the opening three-quarters of a mile. Given the bumper-cars nature of the Kentucky Derby, it's not wise to ever assume a two-horse speed duel. A minor bump to Sinister Minister or Sharp Humor in the opening jumps alone completely changes the complexion of the race. I like how trainer Dale Romans has thrown the gauntlet down and basically told anyone who wants to be near the early pace to think twice. Many likely will. This horse will not stop once attacked by the mid-pack and late movers. He's tough, though likely to find at least a challenger or two too much to hold off after grueling fractions. Of all the big-time front runners, he's got the most appeal at a very nice price.

A.P. WarriorDisappointing in the Santa Anita Derby, and quite frankly underachieving since a ballyhooed debut last summer. But don't be surprised if this Californian jumps up on Derby Day with a strong effort. Corey Nakatani is the most aggressive, bold big-race rider in America and is paired with a horse who figures to be in the mix turning from home form just off a hot pace. He'll get first run on the tiring speed and a jump on the deep closers. John Shirreffs won last year's Derby with Giacomo, whose form looked eerily similar to this guy. In almost every scenario I construct, A.P. Warrior projects as a top-six finisher, and an even higher placing is well within striking distance.