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March 10, 2006 -- With “Cinderella” stories and buzzer beaters capturing the imagination of basketball fans everywhere, the NCAA tournament has become one of the biggest sporting events of the year. It’s safe to say that the popularity of “March Madness” isn’t solely due to those cheering for their alma maters as many more have a betting interest in the tournament with office pools being the most popular.
Much of the excitement of the tourney is the danger that any given team could be upset. While no #1 seed has ever lost to a #16 seed in tournament history, everyone else is vulnerable. In fact, a team seeded #13 or lower has pulled off a first-round shocker 36 times in the last 20 years. Last year, Bucknell and Vermont ruined brackets everywhere with first round upsets over trendy Final Four picks Kansas and Syracuse, respectively.
With all of these upsets, it’s very difficult to predict the Final Four, let alone win a bracket. After spending a lot of time analyzing teams, there’s another option: a straight bet on the game. While a wager can make any game more exciting, it’s always to do research first.
Before the tournament starts, there’s time to study every team and match-up. With so much public money flowing on March Madness, there are bound to be spreads on games that are off -- public money always gives rise to opportunities. By doing a little homework, the NCAA tournament can provide a great opportunity to win money by avoiding the mistakes of bettors that wager with their hearts instead of their heads.
When analyzing teams for tournament play, here are a few things to consider:
1. How has a team done in its last 10 games? This is often a better way to predict a team’s current performance than using all the games this season -- rotations are hopefully set and young players have matured. Consider the #17 LSU Tigers -- they started slowly at 8-5, but have since gone 14-2. By contrast, the #16 Florida Gators have lost 4 out of their last 8 games. While ranked similarly, the two teams are headed in opposite directions.
2. Does the team have depth? A team that relies heavily on just 5-6 players for most of the game will be at a disadvantage against a deeper team, especially in the later rounds of the tournament. If a team plays two tough games in three days, having a deep bench can make all the difference.
This year Connecticut has been the role-model for depth with five players averaging 10+ points per game and eight players seeing a lot of time. On the other hand, Duke is a “two-trick pony” as only two Blue Devils average over 10 points per game. If J.J. Reddick or Sheldon Williams become injured or face foul trouble, Duke could stumble.
3. How has the team played against similar caliber opponents? Games where a team is outclassed or is a large favorite are not too useful, because a coach may rest starters or a team could score garbage points when being blown out. This will affect that game’s statistics as much as the actual players’ performance.
If you are comparing two teams, don’t use statistics for the whole season, only tally the stats for the relevant games. For example, Long Beach has the #1 offense in the country averaging 83.7 points per game. However, in games against opponents in the top half of Sagarin ratings, they average only 72 points per game. Using season-long statistics can result in losses.
4. Power rankings are often inaccurate -- they place as much weight on games played early in the season or on mismatches as on more recent games against equal opponents. The public often relies heavily on power ratings, so many game spreads will move towards the spread predicted by Sagarin ratings. If such a move will hurts the price, make bets early before the line moves.
With Selection Sunday taking place this weekend, use these ideas while examining the NCAA Tournament games. What teams do bettors like to be crowned 2006 national champions?
Odds To Win 2006 NCAA Tournament
Pinnacle Sports has had high volume on most of NCAA futures, but this is especially the case for the 2006 Tournament winner. Bettors prefer Connecticut to win the tournament, driving the price down to +255 after opening at +315. The next most popular team (from betting volume) is North Carolina, whose opener of +7429 was bet down to +912. Nobody wants to back Duke after its poor finish to the season, causing its opener of +350 to drift up to +412.
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