college basketball betting lines

For most of our lives, there was a very simple strategy for handicapping college football bowls that worked out very well:
*You took underdogs in the early bowls, because the favorites wouldn't be very motivated in lesser games.
*You took the favorites from New Year's Day on, because everyone would show up to play in the big bowls, and talent would win out. The team that won straight up usually covered. In big games where both teams cared, the favorites would win and cover.
That didn't just work for a few years. That worked for decades! You probably grew up as a fan noticing that, and continued to apply the strategy when betting on the games as an adult. Heck, you used that approach if you were just trying to win the family bowl pool against your grandparents, aunts, and uncles!
In recent seasons, we've seen something close to a full reversal. I believe the following reasons have conspired to turn history on its head:
*College football has added way too many bowl games, so there are a lot of undeserving teams in the early bowls. If you're not really good enough to deserve a bowl bid, there's a chance you'll get routed even if your opponent isn't at peak motivation.
*There's a better understanding amongst players now that the New Year's Bowls are meaningless too! In the past, there were strong relationships between conferences and the marquee bowls, and the big game was seen as the highlight of a season. Now, it's just another game that isn't the national championship.
*The increase on competitive balance across the major conferences has made many bowl games a virtual coin flip. The pointspreads in those games reflect perceived differences that aren't really there. Anybody can play with anybody over 60 minutes once you're in the upper 25% of the sport.
Given the bowl history you grew up with, you might be surprised to hear what happened last year:
*Favorites were 9-3 ATS in the first 12 bowl games played, reversing the tendency for dogs to cover early games.
*Underdogs were 15-5 ATS after that! The puppies had a great run through the marquee bowls, and underdog Florida won the national championship game outright against Ohio State.
On the whole, underdogs went 18-14 ATS over 32 bowl games. That will make you money if you just blanket the dogs. But, you're obviously better off trying to trim out the non-deserving teams. They got waxed in the first week of games.
I dug a little deeper last year, and noticed the following interesting tendencies:
*In games matching teams from BCS conferences against teams from OUTSIDE the BCS leagues, the "outsiders" went 5-2 ATS for a 71% cover rate. This is consistent with the past, where lower profile teams rose up and played great against disinterested opponents from big time conferences. Among the winners last season were BYU over Oregon, Hawaii over Arizona State, and you all remember Boise State over Oklahoma.
*In games matching two teams from BCS conferences, the UNDERDOGS were 12-6 ATS for 67% success. That corresponds with the competitive balance point I was making earlier. If teams from big time conferences play each other, the game is a virtual coin flip over 60 minutes and you might as well take the points.
With all of this in mind, the following strategies make sense:
*Rank all the non-BCS schools from top to bottom using your power ratings or respected computer ratings, and just CROSS OUT the bottom half of the list! Don't invest in these teams. Many are probably undeserving of a postseason bid in the first place in terms of the standards we all grew up with in the past. It's okay to bet favorites against these teams if you have indicators suggesting the favorites are going to be focused.
*Take the top half of you non-BCS list when those teams are matched up against BCS conference opponents. You're likely to get a talented motivated team facing a flat opponent that's disappointed they're not in a better bowl.
*If two teams from BCS conferences are matched up against each other, look to take the underdog. Obviously, this doesn't mean the dog is an automatic play. Some circumstances will overrule the situation.
I'm not saying those strategies will run the table. I do think they're very likely to win a lot more than they lose in the coming weeks. Beating the bowls is all about putting the percentages in your favor. Right now, that means turning history on its head and doing what works!