college football betting spreads

Forgive us for reminiscing so often in recent weeks, but we at THE GOLD SHEET happen to be in a reflective mood these days, mainly because we’re celebrating our golden anniversary. And being around for 50 years allows us to have a unique historical perspective on events such as the NFL playoffs, as we remember the days when the pro football postseason bore little (or no) resemblance to the modern extravaganza it has become.
Believe it or not, for the first decade TGS was published, the pro football “playoffs” basically consisted of one game—the league championship battle. Remember, our first publishing season in 1957 even preceded the creation of the old AFL by three years. Although the NFL had rare conference playoff games in 1957 (Detroit, dramatically rallying from a 27-7 deficit, beating San Francisco 31-27 at old Kezar Stadium in the Western Conference playoff) and 1958 (the Giants shutting out the Browns to win the East at Yankee Stadium, 10-0, the week before their epic overtime battle vs. Johnny Unitas’ Baltimore Colts), one-and-done was the norm in the NFL and AFL playoffs through 1966. Moreover, the championship games were almost always contested before New Year’s—another pro football factoid that almost qualifies for “ancient” status, at least in comparison to the modern-day NFL and its TV “sweeps”-extended season that now stretches practically into mid-February!
Things began to change in 1967, when the NFL boldly broke up its traditional Eastern/Western Conference blocs into four divisions, the “new” Eastern Conference consisting of the Century and Capitol Divisions, the new “West” now comprised of the Coastal and Central Divisions. For the next three years, each conference played its own title game before its winners advanced to the NFL Championship, and, finally, to the nascent Super Bowl. The expanded NFL playoffs were a hit with fans (and CBS-TV) from the outset, even though the majority of those conference title games weren’t too memorable (save, perhaps, for Bud Grant & Joe Kapp’s Vikings and their pulsating 23-20 win over George Allen’s visiting Rams in ‘69). A further expanded playoff format was a key byproduct of the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, with four postseason combatants qualifying from both the newly-named AFC & NFC. The quarterfinal “Division Round” was also the first round until 1978, when an extra wildcard entry necessitated the “Wildcard Round” before the round of eight (“Division Round”) would commence.
TGS is likely the only publication to have the distinction of predicting every Division Round playoff game since 1970! And the history of this round is a colorful one, as some of the most-memorable encounters in NFL annals have taken place in the conference semifinals. The Christmas Day battle in 1971 between Kansas City and Miami still resonates, maintaining the title of “longest game” (82:40!) to this day. Ed Podolak’s (left) 350 all-purpose yards for the Chiefs in that game also still stands as an NFL playoff mark, although his heroics went for naught in the Dolphins’ 27-24 win. It was also the last football game ever played at old KC Municipal Stadium. Things heated up even more in 1972—on Saturday, December 23, to be more precise. That was the afternoon the Steelers beat the Raiders, 13-7, on Franco Harris’ last-second “Immaculate Reception,” although to this day we’re not sure Kenny Stabler’s preceding 30-yard scramble TD with 1:13 remaining (the Snake scrambling 30 yards for a TD?!?) wasn’t more amazing. It was also the day Dallas rallied from a 28-13 deficit to stun the 49ers at Candlestick Park, 30-28, scoring two TDs in the final 2 minutes. We vividly recall the front page of the old Los Angeles Herald-Examiner sports page the next day, with a picture of superimposed 49er and Raider logos taking a leap off the Golden Gate Bridge. We could go on reminiscing, but we don’t have the room.
Collectively, what have Division Round results revealed over the years? For the most part, this round has been favorite’s territory, although it’s worth noting that all four road underdogs covered two seasons ago. But without those ‘04 results included, the “chalk” has recorded an 18-9-1 spread mark in NFL quarterfinal action since 1998. Overall, since 1976, home teams are 66-51-3 vs. the line; favorites 64-52-3. Home teams and favorites are practically synonymous in this round, too (Carolina, getting 3 points at home vs. Dallas in 1996, and winning 26-17, is the only Division Round home dog since 1982!). Indeed, favorites are 86-33 straight up since ‘76; home teams 88-32.
And, perhaps more so than other playoff rounds, there is rationale to support those favorite/home-oriented pointspread patterns in the Division Round. Remember, home teams in this round usually represent the cream of the crop in each conference. And it's worth noting that almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory were from that first-round "bye" group, including 46 of the past 56 Super Bowl teams since 1978 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced), and 23 of the last 28 Super Bowl winners. They also benefit from a much-needed "bye" week to refresh and recharge, which many insiders consider a considerable edge at this stage of the campaign. And, of course, they're playing at home, which has almost certainly proven another edge (often a significant edge). Combined, those factors help contribute to the playoff “blowout” factor we touched upon last week. Indeed, almost half of the Division Round games charted since 1976 (56 of 120) have been decided by 14 points or more. And since ‘94, 30 of the 48 Division Round games have been decided by double-digit margins.
Following are the pointspread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1976. Our "charting" begins with the '76 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record. A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1976 is included as well.