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Tuesday, October 16, 2007
The Bears seem right now to be a good bet each week on both sides and totals. They lead the NFL in points scored and fewest points allowed after five
The Bears seem right now to be a good bet each week on both sides and totals. They lead the NFL in points scored and fewest points allowed after five games, the first team since the 1964 Bills to do so this late into a season. In doing so, they have become a bettors dream, going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS and 3-1-1 Under. I like them to cover all bets again this week as they head into the desert to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night as 13.5 point favorites in the Sportsbook.(If you happen to be a fan of the Cardinals in this one, jump on this line now, as many other books out there have the Cards at only +10 to +11.5. If you do like Arizona, you are getting an amazing 2 to 3.5 extra points by laying down with enterbet! I will, however, attempt here, to steer you in a different direction).With Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald out and Matt Leinhart starting just his second game as a pro, things look a little bleak for an Arizona team with no running game to speak of, averaging the fewest yards per carry of any team by far, and an offensive line that is just plain offensive. While the Cardinals rank 25th defensively and 20th on offense overall, the Bears are light years ahead on both sides of the ball and should be looking to shine even brighter on such a stage as is Monday Night Football.Last week, up 40-0, the Bears defense was visibly and vocally upset to have allowed a passing touchdown with just over a minute to play against the Buffalo Bills. That bodes well for Bears fans and for bettors looking for a defense that will not quit, making it more likely that, by holding the opposing team to very low scores, they will keep the total under the predicted margin.On offense, Rex Grossman is having one of the best years of a Bears QB in decades. His 100.8 rating is the best rating of a Windy City QB since Sid Luckman had a 107.8 rating back in 1943. His worst games have come on the road, but the only game where his rating did not approach 100 was in Minnesota. The Vikings have the 9th ranked defense in the NFL and their offense managed to put up 16 points under the guidance of their wily, experienced veteran QB Brad Johnson. No. Wait a minute. Those points actually came from Grossman himself, as he threw two of his three interceptions on the year during that game. He has thrown none since.It should not be hard to have a much better defensive and offensive effort on the big stage versus the young Leinhart and an Arizona squad who, with a 1-4 record, must quickly be getting despondent at the lack of success they have had this year. After another offseason that left them coming into this campaign seemingly full of promise - with a new star RB in Edgerrin James and a new, sold-out state-of-the-art stadium to call home - Arizona was hoping for much more, but are already starting to look ahead to next season as this one slips out of reach. Turnovers, the stat most often affecting the outcome of games, are led by the Bears as well. The Bears lead the league in defensive takeaways, averaging three per contest while the Cards are not doing too badly in that respect, either, with 1.8 per game. However, in offensive turnovers, the Bears are averaging just one giveaway per game while the Cards are handing the rock over almost 2.5 times each contest. These stats point me to believe that the Bears will win the turnover battle by two at least, probably three, and that alone should be good for at least ten points from this squad. All other things being equal, I think the Bears would win by a touchdown or more without the turnovers, and those extra points will help them beat this large spread.Arizona does hold slight advantages in the kicking game, holding opponents to less return yards and getting better yardage out of their own kickers, than Chicago, but the differences are only a few yards per kick on average and should not have too much of an effect on the outcome, unless there is a complete blunder like that punt last Monday night by Baltimore that put the Broncos in a great position to score and cover the spread, which they did. Those errors don’t often happen with NFL kickers, however, and I would The Bears have outscored opponents by an average of 24 points per game this season on their way to a 5-0 start, their best since going 6-0 to start the 1986 season. That’s ten and a half more points than they need to win this game by to beat the spread, for those who are not mathemacologists. Look for them to keep it up in Arizona this coming week. Consider the Cardinals bear food.Blake Butterfield is a freelance columnist for enterbet.com and .com. To email Blake Butterfield, send your comments to enterbet.com
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