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Tuesday, September 25, 2007
BET FOOTBALL FOOTBALL BETTING BASICS (THE BEST SPORTSBOOKS TO BET FOOTBALL CLICK HERE) FOR TONS OF FREE FOOTBALL PICKS, INCLUDING THE FAMOUS BETTORSWORLD KEY RELEASES, MAKE SURE TO VISIT HANDICAPPING CENTRAL!! Welcome to the first in a series of articles that will examine some of the finer points in sports betting for newcomers to the idea of trying to get the edge on the bookie. Many of the ideas will be applicable to other sports, but we'll be focusing on how to bet football. Much of this stuff will be old-hat to old-timers but I hope many people will get at least a few ideas from the articles.***This series of article was written for Bettorsworld by long time contributor "Shawn".---------------This Week: Q & A ABOUT "THE LINE"1. "What the Line means – and what it doesn't."Suppose you have a local bookie who lets you bet football by betting the line printed in your local newspaper's sports section. On the Wednesday before the NFL season kicks off you open the paper and under "NFL Lines" you see:(Favorites listed first, home team in CAPS)JETS 6.5 PatriotsOK so what does this mean? This means you can call your football bookie and bet $11 on the Jets. If the Jets win by 7 points or more you get the $11 back plus $10 more. If the Jets win by 6 or less, or the Patriots win, you lose the $11. Or, if you like the Patriots, you can bet $11 on them. If they win, or lose by six or less, you cash in, getting your $11 back plus $10 more. If the Jets win by 7 or more, your money on the Patriots is gone. Of course you can bet more than $11 to win $10. You can bet $55 to win $50, $110 to win $100, or more. Generally when you bet football, you risk $11 for every $10 you want to profit...that's the standard and it varies little.A line is also called a "point spread" or "spread".So what does it REALLY mean? The number 6.5 is the head start in points the line-maker gives the Patriots. He thinks, and your football bookie is very much hoping, that if that's the head start given the Patriots for wagering purposes, half of the bookie's clients' dough will be bet on the Jets and the other half on the Patriots.Why is this important? The smart football bookie doesn't want to bet or gamble–he wants a sure thing: a guaranteed profit from his customers. Consider the simplest case where a bookie has just two bettors, you and me, and this number of 6.5 does its job. You bet $11 on the Jets and I bet $11 on the Patriots. One of us wins. Let's say it's me...I hate the Jets. I get my $11 back, plus $10 of your money. The extra $1 you put in stays in the bookmaker's pocket as his small, guaranteed profit (it's called "vig" or "juice").What does the Line NOT mean? It does not mean, under any circumstances, that football oddsmakers think the Jets will win by about 6 or 7 points. It's your job to predict who will win and by how much when you bet football...the line-maker doesn't want to do your job for you. He works for the bookies. He and the bookies don't care who wins or loses or by how much–they just want the same amount of cash on each side so the bookies can get juice. The line-maker tries to come up with the handicap of points that will put half the public's money on the Jets, and half on the Patriots. As long as the money is split evenly, the bookie "wins" in his own way, and the result of the game is of no importance to him.2. "Whoa. The Line is different today from yesterday. What's with that?"So the next day in the paper, it's nowJets 7 Patriotsinstead. Now if you like the Jets they've got to win by 8 or more for you to cash in. If you like the Patriots, they can win or lose by 6 or less and you'll win. (If the game lands on a Jet win by exactly 7, anybody who bet while the line was 7 just has their money refunded...you get the line at the time you bet, even if it changes later.)The Line moved because the line-maker consulted with some big sports books and the money wasn't balanced when the number was 6.5–there was more coming in on the Jets than the Patriots. So the line-maker and bookies changed the number to try to encourage more bets on the Patriots to even things up and get that juice.(Line movement is complicated and these are only the basics. Detailing line movements and other things a bookie can do to "even up" the betting would take pages. One thing that the bookie could do instead of moving the line is to say "It's still 6.5 but Jets bettors have to lay $11.50 to win $10 and Patriots backers can lay only $10.50 to win $10." This is called "moving the money instead of the line". Think about this one. It's especially common when the line is exactly 3 points, a football winning margin that actually occurs a lot.)3. "Why do different places have different Lines on the same game?"Suppose you have access to several football bookies (this is a good idea and we'll talk about it in a later article) and you find they have different lines, like:Bookie A: Jets by 6.5 (from the Newspaper)Bookie B: Jets by 6Bookie C: Jets by 7Canbet: Jets by 6.5Victor Chandler: Jets by 7Bowmans: Jets by 6.5Everybody but the football bookie who blindly follows the paper is trying to balance the Jets bets with the Patriots bets. Maybe Bookie B is in Boston so he is a little lopsided on people betting for the Patriots -- so he's trying to entice Jets bettors to step up. Maybe Bookie C is in the Bronx (so he has too much money on the Jets at 6.5), and maybe Victor Chandler's clients bet favorite teams a lot instead of underdog teams, so they're looking for more money on the Patriots right now.In the above example if you like the Jets you'll take your business to Bookie B because if the Jets win by exactly 7 you're a winner, and if the Jets win by exactly 6, it's the only shop at which you don't lose. If you like the Patriots, in this example Bookie C or Victor Chandler are the places to play because the Patriots get more points as a head-start there. More on line-shopping in a few weeks.Next article: Traditional and Exotic Football Bets Explained–Bets to Play & Bets to AvoidBET FOOTBALL! Bettorsworld is your one stop sports information service featuring: bet football, Sportsbook information, college football free picks, NFL football picks, Free college football picks, college basketball picks, college football predictions, Free basketball picks, MLB Picks, sports betting advice, free football picks, Matchups, Statistics, Lines, Odds, Scores, Sportsbook bonuses, Sportsbook ratings, Sportsbook reviews, online bookies and more! The information contained at this site is for news, entertainment and amusement purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of any federal, state and/or local laws is prohibited.Comments, questions? email www.enterbet.comCheck out the rest of the articles in this series and learn how to bet football the right way!!!! Bet Football 1Bet Football 2Bet Football 3Bet Football 4Bet Football 5Bet Football 6Bet Football 7Bet Football 8 bet football THE BEST SPORTSBOOKS TO BET FOOTBALL CLICK HERE When you buy a book on betting, it often starts out by talking about the Philosophy of Betting, or probabilities of dice rolls, or something abstract like that. This series tried to start with something more practical–what is a line, really? What are the bets available? We moved on to money management and middling and touched on other issues the smart football bettor needs to consider. Now, as parting words, I'd like to offer some thoughts on betting football, and betting it to win. (Almost all of this is transferable to other sports.) 1) Some people claim that betting on sports is just like playing the lottery or roulette. For the smart bettor, this is not true. Lotteries and roulette offer payouts based on luck, and the payouts are only a fraction of the true odds. Given enough Daily Numbers draws or coups of the roulette wheel, you will lose all your money. Guaranteed. And it's true that in laying 110 to win 100 on the Seminoles -9.5 points you're only getting back about 91% of your "rightful" profit should the Seminoles cover. But whether or not they do does not depend on dumb luck (well, most weeks anyway). There's no such thing as a "good" Daily Numbers player, but a smart bettor can overcome a bookie's premium. 2) Overcoming the bookie's edge is the responsibility of every individual bettor. It takes discipline, practice, and the ability to learn from mistakes. Some people never learn. The people who never learn are Contributors. These generous souls put the rooves over the bookies' heads and cash into the sharp players' pockets. If you don't bet smart the odds are overwhelming that when all is said and done you'll be a Contributor. Everyone has losing weeks, months, even seasons–it can't be avoided that every now and then you'll have a six week spell where two out of every three bets go in the toilet. The key is to keep your head in the game continuously to try to ensure that your hot streaks are frequent and your losing streaks are rare. If you don't bet smart, in my opinion, that's when you're playing roulette and seeing your money ground away. There's no magic formula, but that doesn't mean you can't win. 3) So with that in mind, TRY HARD. Whether you bet $10 a week or $10,000 a game, unless you just want to throw your money to cruel fate (and sharp bookies) do your best to get it right. Take the time to make informed decisions. Don't phone a bet in just because you found out the game will be on TV in a few minutes. Don't chase your losses when the inevitable losing streaks show up. Don't think you're invincible because your record last Saturday was better than Nebraska's was last year. After a few months you may discover you really have a knack for this. You may instead discover you're hitting exactly 49% against the spread and that won't cut it. But whatever you find out, know that whatever effort you gave you gave all you could, so you'll know if you should keep at it. 4) There should be no stigma in being a smart sports bettor. In the introduction to the Betting Guide that Bowmans mails new clients, an old saying is quoted: "If you bet on a horse, that's gambling. If you make three spades, that's entertainment. If you bet cotton will go up three points, that's business." Is there that much difference in the three endeavors? I doubt it. (And by the way, you can play Rubber Bridge for money at least six days a week in any major city in North America.) So don't let anyone tell you you're a degenerate or a loser. Like a banker, a grocer, a tailor or businessman, you're trying to use your skills to make money, using margins to grab a few dollars every week. Some weeks are better than others. So while governments have forced most sports betting off-shore or underground, don't be ashamed if you're a smart bettor. Betting can be a healthy pastime, and if you're good at it you can make money besides. What's the difference if you're betting on Microsoft, the company Paul Allen helped found, or on the Seahawks, the team he currently owns? LASTLY, I promised an article on Teasers. That hasn't been written yet but I hope to include it in a future series of articles on handicapping technique if the lads at Bettorsworld will have me back in future. What we've discussed in the last two months only scratches the surface. THANKS to B-World for giving me the space and I'd like to express particular appreciation to everyone who gave me feedback on the articles Finally, thank you for reading. Now do the right thing and make Christmas at your bookies' houses a lean one this year. 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