nfl best bet

nfl best bets

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# posted by castell : 3:05 PM  0 comments

• NFL Best Bet Picks- Updated every Wednesday by 3pm Pacific Time -If you are not seeing the current week, your browser is loading a cached page. Each week the person in charge of a subscriber feature can submit a 'best bet' selection. These have proved to be very potent since the introduction of this concept three years ago, and we will present a best bet freebie on this page each week to showcase the range of our various subscriber handicapping tools.
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Week 1: Cumulative Spread MarginAlso known as "Contrarian Bridgejumping", the CSM is a method geared primarily to the middle part of the season, but has some interesting applications to week one games. As the name suggests, "Cumulative Spread Margin" involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of "CSM" for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game.
  Similar to the Turnover Difference Theory (another contrarian indicator), the CSM angle suggests playing the team with the BAD Cumulative Spread Margin in match-ups with a significant difference, which is defined as 6+ CSM points per game.
  Example: if team A is averaging a -2 pt CSM and team B is +5 CSM per game so far, then team A would be the play based on being 7 CSM pts worse per game.
  While the method is focused on the week 5 to week 12 heart of the season, it seems logical that the angle might work fairly well for the first week of a season, given that the lousy teams from last year will probably be under-rated, while the good teams from last season may generally be over-rated. Here are the CSM results in week one games:
  Week 1 "Cumulative Spread Margin" results 1984-2007(using prior season's stats) Overlay 6 - 7.9 8+ Pts HomeFavs 7 - 4 1 - 0 HomeDogs 7 - 3 9 - 3 AwayFavs 0 - 1 0 - 0 AwayDogs 8 - 6 7 - 4 Favorites 7 - 5 1 - 0 Underdogs 15 - 9 16 - 7 Home Teams 14 - 7 10 - 3 Away Teams 8 - 7 7 - 4 ALL PICKS 22 - 14 17 - 7 WIN % 61 % 71 %
  Spread Ranges for the 6+ Difference plays Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5 Favorites 0 - 0 1 - 0 7 - 5 Underdogs 4 - 3 12 - 7 15 - 6
  So it's a little impressive seeing the 6+ plays (the only ones that count) have compiled a 39-21 record from 1984-2007.
  Let's take a look then at the 2007 season opener best bet:
  AwayCSM Away Team Line(Home) Home Team HomeCSM Pick CSM Diff -4.8 Oakland -7.5 New England 4.2 Oakland -9.0
  Favor: Oakland +7.5
  What do you think? Make your opinion known on the Message Boards Best Bet Performance RecordsThe "Best Bet" column was introduced for the 2007 coverage, allowing feature editors to highlight one play as the best option of the week (editors can elect not to provide a best bet if none seem worthy of the honor). Feature 2007-2007 3-Yr W% Inside the 20 29-14 67% Injury Report 30-15 67% DC/TO 26-14 65% Trends 32-18 64% Drive Charts 28-16 64% CSM 15-9 63% Full Story 22-14 61% Turnovers 25-16 61% Last 5 UPM 20-17 54% Play-By-Play 21-21 50% UPM 23-24 49% Angles 9-16 36%
  -- The Free Best Bet Picks combined for a record of 10-7 (59%) during the 2007 season
  2007 Season Archive Week One: TrendsWeek Two: Week That WasWeek Three: AnglesWeek Four: Drive Chart DogsWeek Five: Inside the 20Week Six: Square MoneyWeek Seven: DC/TOWeek Eight: Turnover DifferenceWeek Nine: CSMWeek Ten: Stats ForceWeek Eleven: UPMWeek Twelve: O/U RegressorWeek Thirteen: RegressorWeek Fourteen: Injury ReportWeek Fifteen: Play-By-Play RatingsWeek Sixteen: Player/Team ConnectionWeek Seventeen: Last 5 UPM
  
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  Find out more: What the press says about TwoMinuteWarningComparing NFL Handicapping Services'Ready to Win' in 2007: our suite of tools to attack the lines this season
  
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# posted by castell : 10:59 AM  0 comments