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College Football article archives 2005 college football Articles Archive of articles by Jeremy Martin - 2005 Baseball article archives Baseball Articles Promotional article archives Promotional Articles 2005 Big Ten article archives Big Ten 2005 College basketball article archives College Basketball 2005 NBA article archives NBA Articles 2005 Boxing article archives Boxing 2005 UFC article archives UFC 2005 NHL article archives NHL 2005 Read information about NASCAR betting 2005 Read information related to Golf Betting 2005 Check out the latest on Horse Betting 2005 Check out the latest on Olympic Sports Betting 2005 Check out Non Sports Betting 2005 Read articles:
March Madness is a unique betting event both in Las Vegas and around the country. Just about every office worker in the gets involved in some type of a betting pool, trying to pick the straight up winners of every game, oftentimes with significant sums of money at stake for the winners. These pools are fairly random. The average fan has about as much chance to win as someone who would pick at random.
In Las Vegas, the more serious bettors get involved in picking pointspread winners. The betting handle, or total amount of money bet, for the NCAA Tournament is comparable to the betting handle for the Super Bowl. This is a major event, to say the least.
During the regular season, oddsmakers rarely consider the general public at all. They are setting pointspreads to beat the “wiseguys” who bet thousands of dollars per game, not the average Joe who bets much less. We don't see public opinion factor into pointspreads very often.
Public teams like Florida, UCLA, and even Duke and Kentucky (who are having “down” seasons by their standards) see their pointspreads adjusted slightly to reflect the fact that 'square' bettors prefer 'name' teams in nationally televised games. But for the vast majority of college basketball games, the pointspread is set based on three factors.
First and foremost, betting lines are set based on power ratings, which are numerical assessments of a given team's abilities. If the oddsmakers have Iowa rated as a 90 and Northwestern rated as an 80, the process begins with the Hawkeyes as a 10-point favorite against the Wildcats.
Secondly, the home courts are factored into the equation, with the oddsmakers adjusting the power rating numbers based on the two teams' performances in their respective roles. It's not uncommon for the oddsmakers to give a team five or six points based on their home court alone. So, if Iowa was playing at Northwestern, the Hawkeyes might only be four or five point favorites, but if the game was played in Iowa City, Iowa, the Hawkeyes could be favored by 15 or more.
Lastly, the oddsmakers consider the way bettors have reacted to these two teams in recent games. Theoretically, the pointspread is set in a place that will attract equal action on both sides. This allows the sportsbooks to make a profit without any risk, because the standard betting formula requires bettors to lay $11 to win $10. The reality is that books rarely get equal or 'two-way' action on both sides of game. Therefore, they must adjust their hard power rating numbers based on recent betting patterns that show what teams are drawing support from the bettors and which teams aren't taking much money at all.
During March Madness, pointspreads are formulated using the same basic methods. But the NCAA Tournament betting lines are affected by the general public much more than they are during the regular season. Because so many recreational bettors get involved at this time of the year, the oddsmakers must factor in the preferences of these bettors much more than they do through the first four months of the college basketball campaign.
An average Joe is much more likely to wager his hard earned dollars on teams from major conferences that he has seen on television, or teams that have been getting significant media hype. So, sharp bettors often find real value betting against those types of public teams. Since George Mason made a huge run to the Final Four last year every Dick, John and Harry is looking to bet on the mid-major teams as well this year. Be careful of not getting a true market value on your underdog while looking for “this year’s George Mason”, again, the lines have been adjusted.
The most visible schools usually pay the biggest price, pointspread wise. Two years ago North Carolina was a very public, and certainly very talented, team. So, the oddsmakers forced UNC supporters to lay a heavy price to back their squad. On its run to the Final Four last year, North Carolina covered only one pointspread in four tries. The same was the case last year with UConn who covered just once in three tries before being bounced from the competition and you can expect to see a similarly heavy price on teams like Florida, UCLA and Kansas this year.
Meanwhile, lesser known schools like Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Montana, and even Bradley provided great value for their supporters before getting bounced from the tournament last year. Professional bettors generally do a much better job at evaluating the smaller schools’ ability to compete than recreational bettors.
The linesmakers rarely adjusted numbers based on the season that the mid-major schools have enjoyed, even when those teams have had phenomenal campaigns. It took two or three strong tournament runs for a giant-killer like Gonzaga to make its way into the betting public's consciousness. Teams that have not made much noise on a national stage in recent years are much easier to support from a pointspread perspective than teams that enjoyed tournament success the previous year. A team like Winthrop this year may hold less value than they did last year, however, based on their near upset of then No. 2 seed Tennessee coupled with their performance against non-conference foes like Wisconsin and North Carolina this year.
Don't expect much of a break from the linesmakers if you are looking to support a team with a history of flaming out early in the tournament. Syracuse, Kansas and Arizona all have nightmarish memories of early exits as top seeds. But bettors have seen those teams on television all year; they're familiar with the programs and the head coaches. So, the linesmakers don't adjust downward very much for recent tournament failures.
Linesmakers must adjust for travel and home court edges, just as they do during the regular season. Two years ago, Oklahoma State played 'neutral site' games at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City; Duke played 'neutral site' games at the Charlotte Coliseum in North Carolina and Illinois advanced to the Final Four with two victories at Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Illinois. This year Louisville and Xavier will both be playing within one hour of their home base and UCLA will be just north of their base in while playing in Sacramento. The linesmaker adjusts its numbers based on location, but oftentimes, they don't adjust enough. This gives sharp bettors outstanding value to wager on teams playing in friendly confines and against teams forced to travel across the country.
March Madness doesn't last long. Forty nine of the 64 tournament games are played on the opening weekend in a frenzy of betting excitement. So, oddsmakers often are forced to overreact based on perceived strengths and weaknesses among the teams. A big favorite that barely escapes a Cinderella in the first round is likely to be undervalued in their second game.
It's a similar story when teams look very good in their first tournament game. Undoubtedly we will see a team win easily in their first game only to be overvalued and lose against a bigger number in their second game. Year in and year out, sharp bettors take advantage of the overreactions and over-adjustments based on a single first-round tournament game.
Hopefully this article will help you understand where the lines originate from and subsequently will help you identify these situations as games get under way on Thursday and Friday and continue over the course of the next three weeks.
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