nfl betting odds week 2

2009-12-07T08:20:00.000-08:00

According to a recent Harris Poll, 29 percent of Americans say that American professional football is their favorite sport. Not surprisingly, it is also one of the most popular sports to bet on. Every February, the Super Bowl is the most popular sports betting event of the year.
Real sports bettors looking to make consistent money are more likely to bet throughout the NFL season rather than just placing one large bet on Super Bowl Sunday, though. Those bettors want to use what they see in one week to their advantage in betting on next week’s games.
Like basketball, nfl betting offers many different types of bets for you to wager on: spreads, moneylines, parlays, teasers, and pleasers.
A spread bet is when one team is favored by a certain amount of points. For example, the New England Patriots might be a 10 point favorite over the New York Jets if the game is at New England. You could either bet on New England to cover the bet and win by 11 points or more, or you could bet that New York will cover the bet and lose by 9 points or less.
Even if a team wins most of its games, that is no guarantee that the team will fare well against the spread. The Minnesota Vikings finished 10-6 last season, but people who bet that the Vikings would cover the spread every week – whether as favorites or as underdogs – finished 6-10, meaning they probably won most of their games by close margins. A closer look at their schedule last year reveals that, not surprisingly, the Vikings won six games by a touchdown or less.
On the flip side of that coin, teams may end up with a terrible record but perform well against the spread, meaning they lost several close games. The Kansas City Chiefs are a great example of this. The Chiefs finished a lousy 2-14 last season, but finished 8-8 against the spread. A close look at their schedule shows that the Chiefs lost six games by a touchdown or less.
Some teams perform great against the spread at home and poorly on the road. The New Orleans Saints were 7-1 against the spread at home – blowing opponents out at their home stadium – but just 4-3-1 against the spread on the road. That’s a bona fide home field advantage for bettors.
Moneyline bets are easier in NFL betting, but bettors must be willing to bet much on worse odds to secure a win sometimes. If you think that New England will win, but not by 10 points, you may just want to bet on the moneyline. The flip side to this is simply betting on New York to cover, and staying away from the moneyline altogether. If you think that New England will win but only by a field goal, it would make more sense to bet $11 to win $10 on New York to cover rather than $50 to win $10 on New England to win straight up.
Another NFL betting option is parlay betting. In professional football, you can parlay bet several games together, either on the point spread or the moneyline, or you can parlay two lines in the same game. For instance, if the New England-New York over-under is 44 points, you could bet New England to cover and parlay it with the over. A typical two-team parlay pays 13 to 5, or $5 won for every $13 risked. A three-team parlay pays 6 to 1 and so on and so forth. If you are feeling really daring, a 10-team parlay can pay up to 600 to 1 on your money.
Parlaying moneylines can be a great way to put some value into your NFL betting. If you think you know who will win the outcome of several games, betting them together will pay out significantly more than if you bet them individually. Of course, as is the risk with any parlay, if you win four games but lose one game in a five-team parlay, you still lose your bet, so proceed with caution.
In general, parlays are not very good values, so if you are looking to maximize your advantage, you may want to place single bets. While the true odds of a three-team parlay winning is 12.5%, or 1 in 8.5, the payoff is only 6 to 1, meaning you are giving up some value. It may not seem like a big difference for one bet, but over time that can accumulate.
There is a situation where parlay betting can become profitable, however. Correlated parlays such as the New England example I mentioned earlier, can be a good value. Some sports books do not allow you to place correlated parlays, and for good reason—it’s like eliminating the zeroes on a roulette wheel, it takes away a lot of the house advantage.
If your sportsbook allows correlated parlays, consider taking advantage of them. Statistically speaking, if a favorite covers, the score is more likely to go over the over-under. If New England wins by 14, it is probable that the score will go over the over-under of 44 points from the earlier example. Still, betting on New England plus the over pays the same as betting the spread for two separate games does. You can see why this is an attractive betting option! Similarly, if an underdog covers, the game is likely to go under. So if the Jets lose by only seven points, the total is more likely to be under 44 points.
Other fun ways to place bets include teasers, future bets and propositional bets. Teasers are a minimum of a two-team parlay where you can change the spread a minimum of six points. In football, where six points can be the difference between a win and a loss, teasers can be very attractive, and very profitable if you play them right. Future bets are wagers that you can place that occur in the future, such as who will win the 2010 Super Bowl. Propositional bets can range from if a running back will rush for more than 80 yards in a game to whether the coin flip will result in heads or tails.
One system of teasers that has been extremely profitable over the last few years is the Wong Teaser. With a Wong Teaser, you target underdogs that are between 1.5 and 2.5 points, and favorites that are between 7.5 and 8.5 points. If you take the Cincinnati Bengals at +2.5 and the San Francisco 49ers at -8, you tease them both six points to +8.5 for the Bengals and -2 for the 49ers.
The reasoning behind this is that many games in the NFL are decided by either three or seven points. If you tease based on that strategy, you are manipulating the line across both the three and seven number and getting a lot of value. From 2001 to 2005, two-team Wong Teasers won 71% of the time. If you are risking $10 to win $10 on a two-team teaser and winning 71% of the time, that is a very profitable strategy. Note that this strategy does not apply to college football!
In general, NFL betting can be very exciting and very profitable if you approach it correctly. When in doubt, go against the public – as the vast majority of bettors lose money. It may be scary to bet on an underdog to cover, or a game to go under the over-under, but in the long run it’s a winning strategy. So get out there, do some NFL betting and settle in for an exciting 17 weeks of Sunday NFL football!

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2008-05-02T10:50:00.000-07:00

how to bet on football

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2007-11-09T09:54:00.000-08:00

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