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When Sheikh Mohammed made the winning bid of $9.7 million earlier this week at the Keeneland September Sales for a son of Storm Cat, he probably had to put aside some unpleasant memories of the last time he spent that kind of money on a yearling. That was 22 years ago when he plunked down $10.2 million for a horse named Snaafi Dancer. One of the biggest duds in racing history, Snaafi Dancer never raced and could not stand at stud since he was infertile. The Sheikh paid $10.2 million for something that was as worthless as an old pair of sweat socks.
Yet, the Snaafi Dancer fiasco, and a long list of similarly high-priced yearling busts, have not discouraged him or the team of John Magnier and Michael Tabor from Coolmore from continuing to fire away at the sales, routinely paying what seems like insanely high prices for horses who are at least a year away from actually running. The sales have becomes the sport's biggest gambling game, where men who are wealthy beyond the wildest imaginations of us normal folks are betting millions that they can find the world's next great race horse and sire.
So far, at least with the horses who have fetched outrageously high prices, they are losing miserably. Of horses who are old enough to have raced, the top 10 highest priced yearlings of all time have cost a combined $76.25 million. On the racetrack, they have earned $503,764. Just as importantly, none have come anywhere close to recouping their purchase prices in the breeding shed.
The Maktoum family, of which Sheikh Mohammed is the most visible member, has been behind a number of these duds. The Maktoums also bought Jareer ($7.1 million), Amjaad ($6.5 million), Alajawad ($5.3 million) and King's Consul ($5.3 million). Those four have combined to win $118,164 on the track.
Still, Sheikh Mohammed just had to have the Storm Cat yearling who is out of the Grade I winning mare Tranquility Lake.
"This was a horse that Sheikh Mohammed felt was the best Storm Cat he had seen, full stop," his bloodstock advisor, John Ferguson, told the Daily Racing Form. "He is an outstanding athlete, from a very good family, from the same cross as Giant's Causeway - Storm Cat on Rahy - and is out of a sensational mare. It's very unusual for there to be a situation where there is little to criticize, and this was one. From the first moment that Sheikh Mohammed saw him, he felt it was very, very important that this colt race for his brothers and Godolphin."
Some of this apparent insanity surely has to do with egos. Sheikh Mohammed is among the richest men in the world and he usually gets what he wants. With Coolmore, his biggest rival in racing, also trying to buy the colt, it's likely that he simply refused to lose the bidding war. Besides, the Maktoums' financial resources are bottomless. What's a few million here or there when you are that filthy rich?
It's virtually impossible that the $9.7 million Storm Cat yearling will earn back his purchase price on the racetrack. But that doesn't mean Sheikh Mohammed definitely made another bad bet.
Should the yearling develop into a top class stakes horse, he will be worth far more than $9.7 million as a stallion. The key, says breeding expert Bill Oppenheim, is that he must win, at the very least, a Group II race.
"When you look at the formulas, he will need to stand for at least $30,000 for them to recoup this price," he said. "With his pedigree, he has to be a Group II winner to do that. That's your target."
It won't be easy. Only 6 percent of all colts by Storm Cat have won Group I or Group II races. Therefore, it's a 15-1 shot that this one will be good enough to become the type of sire he must be to justify the price.
Of course, he could also turn out to be much more than a Group II winner. He has the pedigree to be any kind of horse, good enough to win Group I races all across Europe. If so, Sheikh Mohammed will have himself a very valuable stallion. When paying $9.7 million for a yearling, that is the hope.
"Take Ghostzapper," Oppenheim said. "He is going to stand for $200,000. Based on that figure, that makes his total value about $60 to $70 million. Probably the most valuable horse in the world is Giant's Causeway. He's not for sale, but if he were, he would probably sell for $80 to $90 million. He should generate $30 million next year alone in stud fees."
Still, based strictly on odds and percentages, Oppenheim reasons that paying $9.7 million for a horse is not a good bet.
"If they win and the horse is worth $60 million, they're getting paid at 5-1 on a $10 million investment," he said. "The odds of them winning are 15-1."
Any horseplayer knows that's a dumb bet. But sometimes dumb bets turn out to be winners. And sometimes they become big winners. Perhaps this colt will win the Epsom Derby, win at Royal Ascot, win the Arc de Triomphe. Perhaps he will carry the colors of Godolphin to even more fame and fortune. Perhaps he will be the next Giant's Causeway or A.P. Indy as a sire. Sheikh Mohammed is betting $9.7 million that he will.