sports handicappers

In 17 years of modern NBA basketball, we’ve seen only two NBA Finals series come down to a deciding Game 7. So, even though on paper, Miami and Dallas looks like an extremely competitive series between two well-matched teams, we can expect one of these two teams to exert their control at some point during this series. Prop bettors should check out the odds for the team of their choice to win in six games, not seven. A look through the game-by-game history of the past 17 NBA Finals tells us a thing or two as well. Surprisingly, the Game 1 results correlate with the results of the series more than any other. Only three times in the last 17 years has the Game 1 winner not gone on to earn the title. The Bulls lost Game 1 in 1991, then rebounded to sweep the next four games to earn their first title. The Bulls also lost Game 1 in 1998, but took control of the series with three straight victories, winning the title on Michael Jordan’s game winning shot over Byron Russell in Game 6. The Lakers lost Game 1 in 2001, but swept the next four en route to their second consecutive championship. This history tells us that the winner of Game 1 is probably worth a good, hard look on the adjusted series price, despite the marginal loss of value following that victory in the first game. The third thing that modern history shows us is that the superior team is a very strong bet in Game 6. That seems to be the point in the series where championship caliber teams flex their muscle. The team that is winning the series 3-2 at that point is poised to close it out, whether at home or on the road. In 17 years, the only Game 6 winner not to win the title was the Pistons last year. The only team to rebound from a 3-2 Finals deficit to win the title was the 1994 Rockets. The other seven teams with a 3-2 series lead all closed it out with a Game 6 victory. Since 1979 only seven franchises have won the NBA title: the Spurs, Lakers, Rockets, Bulls, Pistons, Celtics and 76ers. During that same 26-year span, baseball has crowned 18 different champions and football has named 13 different champions. At least this year with the Heat and Mavericks both making their first-ever NBA Finals appearance, we’ll see some new blood earning a championship ring. The only player on either team to ever win an NBA title before is the most legendary player on the court: Shaquille O’Neal.