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2009-01-23T12:58:00.000-08:00

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gambling book

2008-06-13T07:23:00.000-07:00

In gambling a Dutch book or lock is a set of odds and bets which guarantees a profit, regardless of the outcome of the gamble. It is associated with probabilities implied by the odds not being coherent.
In economics a Dutch book usually refers to a sequence of trades that would leave one party strictly worse off and another strictly better off. Typical assumptions in consumer choice theory rule out the possibility that anyone can be Dutch-booked.Whichever horse wins in this example, the bookmaker will pay out 200 (including returning the winning stake) - hence making a profit of 10 on each bet.
If Horse 4 were withdrawn and the bookmaker were foolish enough not to adjust the other odds, the implied probabilities would add up to 0.95. In such a case, a gambler could lock in (guarantee himself) a profit of 10 by betting 100, 50 and 40 on the remaining three horses, respectively.
Other forms of Dutch books can exist when incoherent odds are offered on exotic bets such as forecasting the order in which horses will finish. With competitive fixed-odds gambling being offered electronically, gamblers can sometimes create a Dutch book by selecting the best odds from different bookmakers, in effect by undertaking an arbitrage operation. The bookmakers should react by adjusting the offered odds in the light of demand, so as to remove the potential profit.
In Bayesian probability, Frank P. Ramsey and Bruno de Finetti required personal degrees of belief to be coherent so that a Dutch book could not be made against them, whichever way bets were made. Necessary and sufficient conditions for this are that their degrees of belief satisfy the axioms of probability.
In economics the classic example of a situation in which a consumer X can be Dutch-booked is if he or she has intransitive preferences. Suppose that for this consumer, A is preferred to B, B is preferred to C, and C is preferred to A. Then suppose that someone else in the population, Y, has one of these goods. Without loss of generality, suppose Y has good A. Then Y can first sell A to X for B + ε; then sell B to X for C + ε; then sell C to X for A + ε, where ε is some small amount of the numeraire. After this sequence of trades, X has given 3·ε to Y for nothing in return. Y will have exploited an arbitrage opportunity by taking advantage of X's intransitive preferences.
Economists usually argue that people with preferences like X's will have all their wealth taken from them in the market. If this is the case, we won't observe preferences with intransitivities or other features that allow people to be Dutch-booked. However, if people are somewhat sophisticated about their intransitivities and/or if competition by arbitrageurs drives epsilon to zero, non-"standard" preferences may still be observable.
A Calcutta Auction is an open auction held in conjunction with a golf tournament,[1] horse race or similar contest with multiple entrants. It is popular in backgammon and NCAA Basketball pools during March Madness.
Bidding for each contestant begins in random order, with only one contestant being bid upon at any time. Accordingly, participants (originally in Calcutta, India, from where this technique was first recorded by the Colonial British) bid among themselves to "buy" each of the contestants, with each contestant being assigned to the highest bidder. The contestant will then pay out to the owner a predetermined proportion of the pool depending on how it performs in the tournament. While variations in payoff schedules exist, in an NCAA Basketball tournament (64 teams, single elimination) the payoffs could resemble the following schedule: 1 win - 0.25%, 2 wins - 2%, 3 wins - 4%, 4 wins - 8%, 5 wins - 16%, tournament winner with 6 wins - 32%.
An interesting element of Calcutta auctions is in determining an appropriate wager for each contestant, as the payoff will directly hinge on the size of the pot and thereby the size of the bids being placed. Thus the value of each team fluctuates during the course of the betting. For example, even if a bidder knew the Tar Heels would be the tournament winner and thus pay out 32% of the pool, she would still be unsure of the exact value of the team (unless it was the last team being bid on) since the payout depends on the sum total of all winning bids, i.e. the final size of the pool.
This is similar to parimutuel betting, in that the winnings are awarded from the total pool of bets, but differs in that only one player can bet on any one contestant. However, a player may purchase as many contestants as they desire.
One variation that has grown as the Calcutta Auction is used more in conjunction with March Madness involves bidding on teams in the reverse order of their seeds instead of random order. As bidding evolves, this aides bidders in estimating the final pot size since the heavily favored teams that command the highest bids are auctioned at the end, thereby limiting the risk on the larger bets.
This page gives some rough guidelines intended to be used by Wikipedia editors to decide whether a book should or should not have an article on Wikipedia. While satisfying these notability guidelines generally indicates a book warrants an article, failing to satisfy them is not a criterion for speedy deletion.
These guidelines may be considered a specialized version of Wikipedia:Notability, applied to books, reflecting the core Wikipedia policies, including the following:
Wikipedia articles must not be vehicles for advertisement Verifiability No original research Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information Wikipedia is not a crystal ball Claims of notability must adhere to Wikipedia's policy on verifiability; it is not enough to simply assert that a book meets a criterion without substantiating that claim with reliable sources.
"Notability" as used herein is not a reflection of a book's worth. A book may be brilliantly written, fascinating and topical, while still not being notable enough to ensure sufficient verifiable source material exists to create an article in an encyclopedia.

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