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Wednesday, February 25, 2009

football betting tips

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

football betting tips

Footy tipping is a betting pool based on a game of skill competition where competitors try to predict the winning teams in a round of games played each round during (usually) the home and away season of a sport.
Footy tipping is the name most used in Australia, however it is not a unique Australian custom. Footy Tipping is known in other countries under names such as "Office Pools", "Football pools" or "Betting pool", however most countries have slightly different rules.
In order to eliminate draws, the competitors (or tippers as they are called) commonly also try to tip the winning margin in the first game of each round.
Footy tipping is most often played in offices where office workers are entered into a competition amongst themselves. Usually, each player puts in money to play and the person with the highest score at the end of the season (or round) wins a portion of the money. Although the structure of footy tipping technically constitutes gaming, most Australian states allow work place tipping competitions to operate.
Due to the internet, many large scale free to enter tipping competitions are run by licensed Australian wagering service providers such as Sportsbet.com.au, and media companies such as OzTips.com or footytips.com.au and sporting bodies such as the Australian Football League and National Rugby League. These competitions are free to enter and play due to gaming regulations in Australia, however differ vastly in prizes offerred to competitors, from with some competitions offering only bragging rights through to up to other competitions offering up to $1m in donated prizes.
Traditionally done with pen and paper, footy tipping has now evolved to software programs, particularly with the increased availability of the internet, which now plays the leading role in running office footy tipping competitions.
Tipping by the Odds" started as a response to the drawback of most regular footy tipping competitions in that they do not adequately reward the tipping of upsets, but rather encourage conservative tipping.
Odds Tipping (as it is sometimes known) pays out bookmaker odds for each win. For example, in an 2006 round 19 AFL game between Adelaide and Fremantle, where Adelaide was the clear favourite, the pay off was $1.28 for those tipping an Adelaide win and $3.55 for those tipping a Fremantle win. As Fremantle won the game, those tipping Adelaide received $0 for that game. Typically, the odds are announced for a given round early in the week leading up to the weekend's fixtures, with the odds remaining fixed once first announced. Tippers place their tips after the odds are announced.
Retrieved from Most people believe that bookmakers adjust their prices so that they get the same amount of money on both sides of a game. Theoretically, the bookmaker's only financial interest in the bets it accepts is the vigorish it takes from losing wagers, and it simply wants to ensure that the amount of wagers on each side is equal. However, some bookmakers are willing to take more risk and attempt to maximize their bottom line. While having an exactly equal amount of money wagered on each contestant would guarantee themselves a profit and eliminate their risk, that won't necessarily maximize their bottom line. They can make more money when they accept bets at odds which are "inflated" from those which are likely to occur. So for example, if the majority of their customers are going to bet on a team regardless of the price, they will set the price as high as possible. This is called "shading" the line. Generally, the public prefers to back the favorite, and unsophisticated bettors often show up during large events such as the Final Four and the Super Bowl. Some bookmakers actually offer different prices to different customers, using past bets as an indicator of who the customer will bet on as a way of additionally increasing their potential profit. This practice is known in the industry as offering "dual lines".
Traditionally, home advantage in American football betting leads to three points being added to the spread; for instance, if two identical teams, Alpha and Beta, played at Beta's home field, then the spread would be Beta -3 (or, conversely, Alpha +3).
With a match offering a point spread, however, bookmakers must be careful of moving the line too much. Assume, for example, that a large number of Oklahoma betters caused the line to be moved from 27 points all the way to 29 points. If Oklahoma won the game by 28 points, the bookmaker would have to pay both those who wagered that Oklahoma would win by 27 and those who took Kansas on the 29 point spread. Bookmakers refer to such an event as "being middled." This famously occurred in Super Bowl XIII between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys, which American bookmakers still remember as Black Sunday. For that game, bookmakers opened Pittsburgh as a 3.5 point favorite, and the line closed just before kickoff at Pittsburgh -4.5. Pittsburgh won the game 35-31, enabling both those who took the Steelers -3.5 and those who wagered on the Cowboys +4.5 to collect.
Sometimes, a point spread is set at an amount that equals a common margin of victory for a particular sporting event. For instance, American football games are often decided by 3 points (the amount awarded for a field goal) or 7 points (the amount awarded for a touchdown with a successful extra-point attempt). In the case of a football game where the favorite is -7, moving the line up or down would likely result in a middle if the favorite wins by exactly 7 points. In this situation, the bookmaker may choose to adjust the return in response to unbalanced action, rather than move the point spread. If the 7 point favorite is getting the most wagers, a bookmaker may reduce the winning return on that team from -7 (-110) to -7 (-120), and increase the winning return on the opposing team from +7 (-110) to +7 (+100). Once this occurs, bettors looking to wager on the favorite will only get a return of $100 for every $120 wagered, while underdog players will get a return of even money for every dollar they wager. The house edge, or vigorish, does not materially change in this instance.
A bookmaker's line can be influenced by one or several large wagers made on a match. Bookmakers pay particular attention to the bets of a professional sports gambler, commonly known within the industry as a "sharp" or "wiseguy." Most bookmakers will not accept bets from bettors they believe fit in this category or otherwise severely restrict how much they are able to stake. Professionals evade such efforts by hiring agents known as "beards" to place bets on their behalf. Groups of professionals who work together are known as a "syndicate." These syndicates will often place large wagers with several books simultaneously, causing the prices to move quickly. Observers refer to these fast line movements as "steam."
Conversely, bettors who are primarily recreational are referred to as "squares". Online, there are certain betting shops that cater more towards sharps and those toward squares. Shops that cater towards professionals generally have higher (or no) upper betting limits and offer lower vigorish, while making some of the money back on fees for withdrawals or minimum bets. Meanwhile, "square" shops generally have lower betting limits and offer more signup bonuses. In return, they charge the standard 11-to-10 vigorish, and offer worse moneylines than the "sharp" shops. In many of the minor sports, sharps make up the majority of bettors, while for large public sporting events such as the NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Championship and the Super Bowl, recreational bettors make up almost 90% of the betting action at sportsbooks, and are the top betting events both in Nevada and online.[1]
Because of how lines move quickly during sporting events, arbitrage betting is possible. Theoretically, this will guarantee a small profit of 1-5% when a person bets on one line at one shop and on the opposite line at another shop. However, a large sum of capital is required for the amount of reward, and great care must be exercised to avoid accidentally betting on the same side at both shops.
Arbitrage situations are commonly found during halftime and intermission periods, where there is a limited amount of time for each bookmaker to determine the line and accept bets. Arbitrage betting is also possible in the weeks and days prior to sporting events as betting lines, especially for American football, are generally set early in a given time period and then adjusted in reaction to betting patterns and other relevant information as the time of the game approaches. Savvy gamblers will sometimes be able to place an early bet using the initial line and a late bet using the later line and then hope that the actual result of the contest falls somewhere between the two bets, thus ensuring either a large win or zero losses.
With the advent of online gambling came odds comparison sites that highlighted arbitrage opportunities by displaying the realtime prices of a number of bookmakers alongside each other. These sites continue to provide the most crucial information to professionals and casual gamblers alike who are looking to bet at the best odds. Also, the above-described practice of dual lines is very common with online bookmakers, and as such may increase arbitrage opportunities.
In general, all forms of arbitrage betting is commonly known as "middling" or "finding the middle" of a particular contest and were fairly common in the early days of organized sports gambling. However, the relatively recent advent of both better communications between the individual sports books, the internet, and more sophisticated linesmaking techniques, has led to fewer opportunities for gamblers to make these types of bets. However with the plethora of new sports bet offerings (many of which are not effectively analyzed by the host bookmaker), arbitrage opportunities continue to exist.
The Federal Wire Act of 1961 was an attempt by the US government to prevent illegal bookmaking.

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