handicapping the kentucky derby

Pedigree is a key factor when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, for horses in Derby fields not only contain the blood of their ancestors but some semblance of their name as well. With one glance at a list of Derby entrants an experienced Derby handicapper can pick out names, or parts of names, and move several steps ahead of the average Derby bettor. Of the horses listed above, seven are Derby winners: Northern Dancer, Majestic Prince, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Alysheba and Strike the Gold. But look at a few other of the names listed, and then peruse the list of Derby winners again. Cox's Ridge is a sire of Derby winner Riva Ridge; Halo of Derby winner Sunny's Halo. The name "bold" is repeated several times; one Bold not listed is Bold Forbes, who also won the Kentucky Derby. The point shoud be obvious and clear. Winners breed winners, and Call To The Derby Post truly believes that the longer one watches the Derby, the more familiar you become with important names and champions who are destined to leave their mark in the winner's circle one way or another.

The dosage system is one of the most scientific ways of handicapping a race, particularly the Derby. What follows is an introduction to how the Dosage system works and how it applies to handicapping and specifically to the Derby. By definition, dosage is a theoretical means of mathematically assessing a horse's genetic inclination toward speed or stamina based on the number and type of chefs-de-race (influential sires) in the first four generationss of a horse's pedigree. The concept was devloped using a complicated mathematical formula that established the preferred percentages, or dosage, for cetain chefs-de-race, reflecting the number of times those sires should appear in the first 12 generations of a horse's pedigree. The dosage system was progressed when the chefs-de-race were classifed into five (now seven) categories. Its current variation, popularized by the Daily Racing Form's Leon Rasmussen in the early 1980s off of research done by Dr. Steve Roman, a petro-chemical engineer who first published his dosage articles in the DRF in 1981. There is an actual list of chefs-de-race, a list of sires composed by the dosage system's founders and expanded and maintained over the years to include American sires by turf writer Abram S. Hewitt, Rasmussen and Roman. Essentially, if a horse has one (or more) of these chefs-de-race in its bloodlines, its sire is one of the top sires in racing, which then increases its own likelihood of becoming a winner. Several organizations offer the list of chefs-de-race; more information can be found (where else?) at the Daily Racing Form.

Chefs-de-race are divided into five aptitude classes--brilliant, intermediate, classic, solid and professional--ranging from pure speed to plodding stamina. These five categories form a horse's dosage profile (DP). A chef-de-race in specific generations of a horse's pedigree are assigned points; based on a horse's dosage profile and these points, a mathematical formula is used to compute a horse's dosage index (DI) and center of distribution (CD). (Head to the DRF to figure out how to calculate the DI and CD.) Theoretically, the higher the dosage numbers the more inclined a horse is to speed over stamina. The speed wing of a dosage profile contains ancestries who are labeled as brilliant and intermediate, which leads to a high DI and CD; stamina comes from solid and professional lines and will lower the dosage. At the center, classic represents the category that is closest to a perfect blend of speed and stamina.
Confused? Well, to be a bit honest, so is Call To The Derby Post. But here's where it gets real simple, real fast. Statistical studies have shown a sharp drop-off in the number of stakes winners at a mile and a quarter (Derby length) or longer whose dosage indexes are above 4.00 and centers of distribution are above 1.25. In the words of Fountaine, "This leades to the most popular application of dosage: the 'dual-qualifier' dosage system for handicapping the Kentucky Derby." To be a dual-qualifier, a horse must have a DI of 4.00 or under, and have been the highweight, or ranked within 10 pounds of the highweight, on the Experimental Free Handicap listing the previous year's top 2-year olds, or have been a champion in another country. It was Rasmussen who developed the dual-qualifier system for the Kentucky Derby in 1984, after research showed that no Derby winner since 1929 had a DI over 4.00 or a CD over 1.25. The only horses since then to win the Derby with a dosage index over 4.00 were Strike the Gold in 1991 (whose sire, Alydar, was later classified a chef-de-race, lowering Strike the Gold's DI from 9.00 to 2.60) and Real Quiet. No handicapping system is perfect; the dosage system, however, is the closest thing to it. To be clear: dosage index cannot tell you who will win the Kentucky Derby, but it will tell you who won't win, even if that horse is one of the favorites.
Now for the second part of the dual-qualifier system. Remember that Triple Crown races are comprised of only 3-year old horses; therefore, 2-year old form has historically played a large part in picking Derby winners. (No Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 was unraced at 2.) This is where the Experimental rankings come in, which are based on the horse's stakes performances as 2-year olds. Since 1972, only six Derby winners were not ranked at the top or within 10 pounds of the top of the Experimental list. Not as impressive as dosage, but close. However, when you find a horse whose DI is both under 4.00 and meets the Experimental Handicap system, you have what is called a dual-qualifier. Since 1984, six dual-qualifiers have won the Derby. Seeing as how not every Derby contains a dual-qualifier, these stats are pretty impressive. You'll find this piece of advice and much more at the Official Call To The Derby Post Tip Sheet, but it's worth mentioning here as well. The very first step taken in handicapping the Kentucky Derby is exlcuding any horse with a dosage over 4.00. The next step is to immediately give serious attention to any and all dual-qualifiers. Looking at the paybacks of some of the dual-qualifers shows why: Ferdinand ($37.40), Sea Hero ($27.80) and Thunder Gulch ($51.00). The list of dual-qualifiers for the Derby is published in the DRF after the Experimental Handicap is released in February, and again in the DRF on the Friday before Derby Day. It can also be found at the aforementioned Official Call To The Derby Post Tip Sheet.