handicapping

If you are a casual player and feel overwhelmed by what seems to be an excess of information to work with, begin your handicapping of each race by eliminating half of the horses in each race by highest odds.
Use a graded handicap listing morning line odds. This can be in the Daily Racing Form, the track program, etc. Example: a race has twelve horses. Half of 12 is 6. Find the six horses listed at the highest odds and throw them out. (If a race has an odd number of entries, round up: 11 horses entered, use the 6 lowest odds horses).
Statistics show that the majority of winners come from the half of the field going off at lower odds. This may be stronger today than just a few years ago as some tracks must card short fields compared to average field size in the past.
Sure, you'll miss some longshots, but in the absence of in-depth handicapping, this simple start can be a great help for the casual player. It's a lot easier to handicap 6 horses than 12!
Let's assume that we know the horses in a turf race have grass breeding and/or a demonstrated ability to run well on the surface. What next? Many handicappers try to handicap turf races in much the same way they approach races on dirt. While it's possible to do handicap that way sometimes, class should be the first traditional tool you use when you analyze a claiming or allowance grass race for older horses.
A good look at the types of races a horse has been running in usually tells a lot more than meets the eye at first. Do the pp's show a checkered record of dirt and turf races or does the horse always run in turf races? Few horses are able to run consistently well on both surfaces.
Does the horse win or finish up close in claiming races but always finish out of it in allowance races? (Now there's a point of analysis that is valid on grass or dirt!)
The fourth race at Hollywood Park on Friday, June 7, 1996 is a good illustration. Reduced to a five-horse field by a late scratch, the mile and a sixteenth race was an allowance for horses 4 & up which had not won $25,000 other than closed, claiming, or starter at a mile or over in 1995-96. [Remember: this means that an eligible horse could not have won a race of the types specified with a purse value of $41,666 or more in '95-'96.]
GOLDEN POST: 6 years old. First start of this year. PP's show nothing but turf races. Turf record: 13 3 7 1. Two turf wins showing in the PP's, spent a year trying to get from non-winners 2X to non-winners 3x, which was done last out by a half a length. Lots of seconds. Has never run in an allowance race with as high a purse value as today's race. Looks like a horse who has "seconditis" regadrless of class level. Unlikely for the win today.
TORCH ROUGE: 5 years old. Third start of the year with the last two about a month apart, finishing way back in a Grade II and a Handicap with a $71K purse. Ran last year almost exclusively in Graded Stakes races. Best races were in high-purse allowance races, like today's. This guy is taking a major class drop from his last two starts, coming back to the type of race he has shown he can handle well. He flashed early speed in the second back and gained ground at every call in the last one. SERIOUS PLAYER.
BARTOK: 5 years old. First start on U.S. soil. New trainer. Best race was an allowance race with a purse of $14,200. Probably outclassed.
POLISH ADMIRAL: 5 years old. First start of the year. Winless since 1994, and only 5 starts last year, all in much better races than today's. Good record in 94, bad record in 95. Horses don't make money staying in their stalls for six months at a shot. Overall, appears to be in decline. The lack of any solid positive factors makes me discount his chances for today greatly.
SAMAH: 6 years old. Fourth start of the year and fourth U.S. start. Last win was in a handicap in England with a purse of $21,500. His record last year of 12 3 0 0 and his turf record of 27 4 1 3 clearly says he is a "win-it-or-forget-it" type of horse. No matter: he's outclassed for today's conditions.
It's not often that a horse who finished 6th out of 8 in his last race and 6th out of 7 in the race before that wins and pays $3.80. But Torch Rouge did just that. Connections and trainer/jockey stats notwithstanding, this example may seem almost too easy because of the short field. However, you'll find the same variety of horses from time to time in turf races with full fields as well. In those races, remembering to use Class on the Grass will produce winners at odds that are much more reasonable!