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NFL Odds - NFL Betting Odds - NFL Betting LinesThis page displays NFL Odds live and up to date for you. Each week this page will update and you will be able to see the NFL betting lines and odds right here.
How the first half results change a team's outlook for the second half of a gameOne area of football betting that has seen a surge in popularity over the past few years is “halftime wagering” where a player can place a stake on the outcome of a “half” rather than a full game. The lines for the 1st half of games are a simple enough prospect, and are often close to the full line on a game divided by two. There’s usually a slight penalty to the favorite (so a –7 line might be –4.5 for the favorite in the first half), but by and large you can predict the lines with some accuracy if you know the full spread. The sportsbooks can set the 1st half numbers well in advance of the game, and suffer no more than the typical exposure in the event of a bad line.
On the other hand, the second half lines that get set in the short time between halves are where the real adventure takes place, for the linemakers, the books, and the players who elect to jump in!
For these latter wagers, linemakers send over a hastily created second half line and the casinos book a flurry of bets in the few minutes before the game resumes. Clearly when posting a number with so little time to assess everything there is substantial room for error, and this is one reason why the bets are finding an audience among sharp players.
Now unfortunately we don’t have a database built that contains halftime lines, so the following research is based on using the full line whole or divided by two to reflect an approximation of a halftime line. Again for the 1st half of games this will be reasonably close, while the second half may in some cases be far off.
Nonetheless, we should be able to glean some patterns to how teams respond to events in the early stages of the game. Our first test is how often the team with the lead in the first half (against half the full spread or straight-up; we’ll look at it both ways) gets the “cover” in the second half against the full line divided by two. In other words, if we treat the second half spread as half the full line (which is an approximation) how often does the team ahead cover in the second half?
NFL Half Comparisons 1983-2002: % of the time the first half leader “covers” a second half line of the full spread divided by two Team Type 1st Half "Spread" Leader 1st Half score Leader ALL 45% 43% Home Favorites 41% 41% Home Underdogs 50% 48% Away Favorites 44% 43% Away Underdogs 49% 46%
So in general, the team that fared well in the first half is unlikely to cover a second half line of “half the full spread” – this is particularly true for favorites. In terms of the actual second half lines, what often happens is that an underdog that’s ahead will be receiving a line that is closer to the full value spread than half of it. Likewise a big favorite that’s far in the lead will not be facing half of the full spread again at that point.
The numbers in the table can also be flipped around to learn the comparable percentage for the team that is behind. For instance an away underdog that’s behind in the first half will “cover” half the full line in the second half at a healthy 59% clip.
The value then seems to be in going against favorites with a lead who are giving at least half the original spread in points in the second half (better of course if they are giving more!). Meanwhile underdogs with the lead can be solid plays if they are getting more than half the original spread in the second half line. There are key numbers in the NFL for spreads (eg 3’s and 7’s) that make it elaborate to give a hard and fast rule as to what the difference in an extra point translates into for a winning percentage. Rest assured though that one or two extra points can usually boost your expected winning percentage significantly!
A more detailed breakout of the above follows, showing the relative lead of the team in the first half --
1st Half "SPREAD" lead, 2nd half "line" performance 1st Half Lead 1 - 2 3 - 6 7 - 9 10 - 13 14+ Pts ALL HomeFavs 154 - 191 167 - 237 115 - 175 105 - 178 138 - 201 679 - 982 HomeDogs 100 - 88 108 - 95 63 - 77 55 - 65 79 - 83 405 - 408 AwayFavs 55 - 83 110 - 116 67 - 63 42 - 70 57 - 82 331 - 414 AwayDogs 189 - 169 238 - 186 124 - 154 90 - 121 99 - 152 740 - 782 Favorites 209 - 274 277 - 353 182 - 238 147 - 248 195 - 283 1010 - 1396 Underdogs 289 - 257 346 - 281 187 - 231 145 - 186 178 - 235 1145 - 1190 Home Teams 254 - 279 275 - 332 178 - 252 160 - 243 217 - 284 1084 - 1390 Away Teams 244 - 252 348 - 302 191 - 217 132 - 191 156 - 234 1071 - 1196 ALL PICKS 498 - 531 623 - 634 369 - 469 292 - 434 373 - 518 2155 - 2586 WIN % 48 % 50 % 44 % 40 % 42 % 45 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5 Favorites 131 - 195 387 - 543 492 - 658 Underdogs 148 - 131 391 - 410 606 - 649
So the bigger the "spread" lead, the less likely it is the team will cover a second half line of the full line divided by two. This is especially true of favorites that grab a lead in the first half of more than half the full spread on the game by 10+ points, as these favorites are just 342-531 (39%) against a second half line that is half the full line. Now it may well be that when a favorite grabs a huge lead the second half spread is adjusted down in ratio from the full one, but in the event that it is not, you now know where the value is!
Let's complete the look here by taking the same table from a "straight-up" first half perspective (eg the team that's in the lead on the scoreboard):
1st Half SCORE lead, 2nd half "line" performance 1st Half Lead 1 - 2 3 - 6 7 - 9 10 - 13 14+ Pts ALL HomeFavs 30 - 50 200 - 264 134 - 171 152 - 239 251 - 388 767 - 1112 HomeDogs 16 - 29 108 - 95 53 - 70 47 - 60 68 - 63 292 - 317 AwayFavs 19 - 32 81 - 127 77 - 90 87 - 84 91 - 139 355 - 472 AwayDogs 47 - 35 190 - 183 88 - 118 68 - 114 72 - 101 465 - 551 Favorites 49 - 82 281 - 391 211 - 261 239 - 323 342 - 527 1122 - 1584 Underdogs 63 - 64 298 - 278 141 - 188 115 - 174 140 - 164 757 - 868 Home Teams 46 - 79 308 - 359 187 - 241 199 - 299 319 - 451 1059 - 1429 Away Teams 66 - 67 271 - 310 165 - 208 155 - 198 163 - 240 820 - 1023 ALL PICKS 112 - 146 579 - 669 352 - 449 354 - 497 482 - 691 1879 - 2452 WIN % 43 % 46 % 44 % 42 % 41 % 43 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5 Favorites 179 - 261 428 - 644 515 - 679 Underdogs 66 - 68 215 - 307 476 - 493
More of the same kind of confirmation of the basic tenets to take away -- go against favorites that had the upper hand in the first half if they are laying at least half the original spread in the second half.
An alternative way of looking at things is asking “how often does a team with a first half lead simply outscore its opponent in the second half?”
1st Half SCORE lead, Second Half SCORE results 1st Half Lead 1 - 2 3 - 6 7 - 9 10 - 13 14+ Pts ALL HomeFavs 46 - 33 235 - 188 156 - 116 197 - 169 309 - 262 943 - 768 HomeDogs 11 - 31 80 - 104 40 - 71 38 - 65 52 - 67 221 - 338 AwayFavs 20 - 26 100 - 79 88 - 62 92 - 65 110 - 98 410 - 330 AwayDogs 30 - 43 123 - 220 65 - 134 49 - 126 48 - 112 315 - 635 Favorites 66 - 59 335 - 267 244 - 178 289 - 234 419 - 360 1353 - 1098 Underdogs 41 - 74 203 - 324 105 - 205 87 - 191 100 - 179 536 - 973 Home Teams 57 - 64 315 - 292 196 - 187 235 - 234 361 - 329 1164 - 1106 Away Teams 50 - 69 223 - 299 153 - 196 141 - 191 158 - 210 725 - 965 ALL PICKS 107 - 133 538 - 591 349 - 383 376 - 425 519 - 539 1889 - 2071 WIN % 45 % 48 % 48 % 47 % 49 % 48 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5 Favorites 275 - 129 545 - 424 533 - 545 Underdogs 22 - 100 144 - 349 370 - 524
So it turns out that favorites with a lead do outscore opponents in the second half as well most of the time, but not to the degree as we discovered earlier that they will cover the second half spread (presuming it’s half the full spread or more). Dogs likewise with a lead seldom outplay the opposition in the second half – but again unless you are looking at second half “money-lines” the first table gives you a better sense of which teams to back against a second half spread.
Now this is a preliminary overview of the subject. More sophisticated analysis might look at the stats from the first half for some kind of correlation with the second half outcome (i.e. if one team was rushing the ball effectively or passing the ball effectively that might make it more likely to cover a second half line). Also, the real sharp players often feel the over/under halftime betting can be a great opportunity, and we will revisit more areas for this data in follow-on articles.
NFL Betting: Who’s Horny and Loves the Color Purple?READ MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting If that’s you, eager bettor, well Covers has listed all the assurances you need that your foolish bet is a profitable one. Behold the five reason why the Minnesota Vikings and their toothless offense will cover their frozen asses at Lambeau tonight:
5. Dovonte Edwards eager to face Favre
As an undrafted rookie cornerback, Dovonte Edwards would figure to be at a huge disadvantage against a veteran gunslinger like Brett Favre. However, Edwards wants nothing more than the future Hall of Famer to chuck the pigskin in his direction Monday night.
“I want a chance to make a name for myself on ‘Monday Night Football,’” Edwards told the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. “As a corner, you got to want the quarterback to throw your way, otherwise it`s like you`re not even out there.”
Think that’s naﶥ rookie enthusiasm? Think again. Edwards was able to make the Vikings roster after playing the cornerback position for just two years in college. He began his Division I career as a wideout, and his ability to learn the position so quickly has earned him the respect of his position mates.
“That really is impressive,” said cornerback Antoine Winfield. “That`s a big change, going from receiver to corner in two years.”
Yep. Dovonte Edwards is pumped-up. Who doesn’t feel better? Proceed to the rest of the logic-defying reaches after the jump.
4. No more Lambeau mystique
The Packers used to be considered a lock at Lambeau Field, but the mystique surrounding the frozen tundra seems to have melted away.
The Pack have suffered some of their most embarrassing losses at Lambeau this season including a 17-3 loss to Detroit to open the campaign, a 26-24 loss to the brutal Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and a 20-10 drubbing by Pittsburgh two weeks ago. Green Bay is 1-3 at home this season with two paydays in those games.
The Vikings are 1-3 as an away team this season, but are hot off an impressive 24-21 victory at Giants stadium last week as 9-point underdogs.
3. Brad Johnson
With all due respect to Daunte Culpepper, the Vikings offense has been much more stable with backup Brad Johnson under center.
Whereas Culpepper ended his season with six touchdowns to 12 interceptions, Johnson has tossed three majors in his first two starts without a single pick. The Vikings no longer pose a deep threat with the 14-year vet at quarterback, but what he lacks in arm makes up in football smarts.
The Vikings credit last week’s game-winning drive to Johnson’s play calling, and believe his leadership will be a huge asset during the rest of campaign.
“Brad stayed calm,” receiver Nate Burleson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “He got in the huddle and ad-libbed a little bit. He went to each receiver and told us what route he wanted us to run. He was able to control it, to orchestrate what we did. We made the plays because he put us in position to.”
2. Faulty holder foiling Green Bay
If Monday’s night Vikings-Packers contest comes down a field goal (four of the last five meeting have), the Packers are at a huge disadvantage.
Holder B.J. Sander’s bumbling has cost kicker Ryan Longwell four field-goal tries and an extra-point attempt this season and the Pack’s moneyline backers two paydays. Sander dropped the snap on what would have been a chip-shot field goal against Detroit in Week 1, bobbled the snaps on a missed extra-point and field-goal attempt in the Week 3 tilt with Tampa Bay and mishandled the pigskin on two missed field goals the Week 7 defeat to Minnesota.
The Packers lost to the Buccaneers by just a single point and dropped a three-point decision to Minnesota.
“I think there has to be a chemistry there [and] a trust factor that develops [between the holder and kicker],” special teams coach John Bonamego told the Green Bay Press Gazette. “Knowing the ball is going to get down and get down a certain way and for Ryan and B.J., that’s still an ongoing process.”
Unfortunately for Bonamego, he has little choice but to stay with Sander. Backup holder Aaron Rodgers has proven even more unreliable than Sanders in practice.
1. Monday a must win for Minnesota
There’s still more than a month left in the regular season, but it’s already playoff time as far as the Vikings are concerned.
At 4-5, Monday night`s contest is a critical juncture for Minnesota’s playoff hopes. A loss would pretty much put the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears out of reach while a win would keep the postseason drive alive for another week.
“This is big. It gives us a chance to get to .500,” Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield said. “If we lose this one, we`re definitely going to be in trouble. We`re fighting to catch Chicago. We can`t afford to lose, especially in our division.”
The pressure has been intense for Minnesota to win these past four weeks and the team’s responded by winning three of those contests including two in a row since Culpepper was lost to injury. Expect the same from the Vikings when they face Green Bay on the Monday night stage. NFL Betting: Packer Pickers RejoiceREAD MORE: Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL Betting Once again, Covers does its weekly Monday point-counterpoint breakdown of tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup. Here are the handciapping gurus insights on why Brett Favre and the Gado-happy Packers will smoke the Vikings:
5. Offense settling down
Packer fans needn’t hold their breath anymore when Brett Favre slings the ball downfield.
Over the last two games, Green Bay’s offense has gone back to the basics as Favre is picking his spots instead of being picked off. After throwing 13 interceptions in the first seven games of the season, Favre has thrown just one interception in each of his last two starts. Green Bay went 1-1.
“For the most part, [I`ve played] well enough to win, but in some of these games, I don`t think I needed to take as many chances as I did,” Favre said Wednesday.
Read the rest of the genius-ness, after the jump.
4. Third-down
It’s an overlooked stat but when a team converts on third down, the impact stretches beyond the moving of the chains.
The extra yard or two gained on the next possession could be the difference between a field goal and a punt or may keep a tired defense on the field for an extra few minutes. So where’s this going? Green Bay ranks second in the NFL in third down tries, converting 45.3 percent.
The Vikings meanwhile, rank dead last in stopping third down attempts (45 percent).
3. No Daunte’s inferno
Over the last couple years, Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper has flourished at Lambeau Field, silencing any claims that the dome QB couldn’t perform on frozen tundra.
Culpepper, who will have season-ending knee surgery next week, has thrown 11 touchdowns in his last three trips to Green Bay without any interceptions. The result helped Minnesota walk out of Green Bay with a win and a pocket full of cash three straight times.
In his last start in Green Bay, Culpepper threw four touchdowns on 19-of-29 passing to help his Vikings bounce back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to win the NFC Wild Card game 31-17.
2. Good Gado
Four touchdowns later and Samkon Gado’s first start as an NFL running back was a success.
Gado, who is listed as fifth on the depth chart, rushed for three touchdowns while catching for another against Atlanta last week.
He did fumble twice en route to 103 yards on the ground, but his emergence should give the Packers confidence in the backfield. That should also begin to open up some gaps downfield for the league’s fifth-ranked air attack.
1. Brad Johnson
Before you hop on the 37-year old Brad Johnson train, think back to his performance in Minnesota’s win over New York last week.
Johnson connected on just 56 of his passes and threw for only 144 yards as Minnesota finished with its worst yardage output of the year. Despite this, the Vikings still pulled off a 24-21 upset over the heavily favored Giants with special teams pitching in all three majors.
Chargers visit Patriots under hostile conditions
By: Chance Harper - 09/14/2007It's not often a Week 2 contest holds as much drama as Sunday's Chargers, Patriots meeting in Foxboro. With hostilities stemming from the Pats' playoff win in San Diego last January, the pot was further stirred this week when the league hit New England and coach Bill Belichick with hefty fines for their sideline espionage. The opening week of the NFL season lived up to the hype. There were thrilling last-second victories, some huge performances by public favorites, and even a handful of upsets. Most importantly for handicappers, we have some actual regular-season results to work with for Week 2. Let’s put them to good use.
Green Bay (+1½) at N.Y. GiantsSunday, Sep 16, 1:00 p.m. (ET) FOXWill he or won’t he? Giants coach Tom Coughlin is being as coy as possible about QB Eli Manning’s status against the Packers. Manning took some throws on the sidelines on Wednesday and Thursday, while backup Jared Lorenzen got some work in with the first unit.
Manning will apparently be a game-time decision; the Packers’ front seven is drooling either way. In Manning, they’d face a quarterback with a second-degree separation of his throwing shoulder. In Lorenzen, they’d face an undrafted and untested product from Kentucky whose main claim to fame is weighing 285 pounds.
What is known is that RB Brandon Jacobs will miss this game with a knee injury. Green Bay might be vulnerable downfield, and Lorenzen certainly has a cannon for an arm, but New York cannot expect to keep airing it out successfully without some support on the ground. Advantage: Packers.
Indianapolis (-7) at TennesseeSunday, Sep 16, 1:00 p.m. (ET) CBSThe Titans were one of the big success stories last week after running roughshod over the Jaguars: 282 yards rushing, to be precise. However, their 13-10 victory was aided by some peculiar coaching decisions on Jacksonville’s part, both on offense and defense.
Tennessee tricked the Jags by spreading the defense with four-wideout formations, then pounding the rock instead of passing. The Colts won’t fall for that. Safety Bob Sanders will charge the line of scrimmage early and often, forcing Titans QB Vince Young to do what he does worst: get the ball deep.
As for the Colts, they answered the bell on offense against the Saints in Week 1. Joseph Addai proved himself as an every-down back, first-round draft pick Tony Ugoh wasn’t overwhelmed starting at left tackle, and the Colts effectively used TE Dallas Clark as a slot receiver when rookie Anthony Gonzalez had trouble on his routes. This is also a revenge game for QB Peyton Manning; he threw two interceptions in last year’s 20-17 loss at LP Field.
Dallas (-3½) at MiamiSunday, Sep 16, 4:05 p.m. (ET) FOXThe betting public is gleefully jumping all over the Cowboys after they beat the Giants 45-35 in the opener. QB Tony Romo answered his critics with four TD passes, as the Dallas passing game managed just fine without injured WR Terry Glenn. They also flattened New York on the ground with 131 yards combined from Julius Jones and Marion Barber III.
What they didn’t do was defend. Although Miami struggled to score points against Washington in Week 1, QB Trent Green wasn’t to blame in his first game with the Fish. He’ll have more opportunities to go long against Dallas, with receivers Marty Booker and Chris Chambers running at breakneck speed.
Expect the leather to fly in this one. Miami’s run defense is excellent, but the secondary is vulnerable, especially to a premier receiver like Terrell Owens. And the Dolphins’ own running attack sure could use a dose of Ricky Williams right about now. Note: Miami has covered just eight of its last 30 games at home.
San Diego at New England (-3)Sunday, Sep 16, 8:15 p.m. (ET) NBCThis Sunday night matchup will grab all the attention this weekend, and for good reason. These are the top two Super Bowl favorites going head-to-head. However, only the Patriots distinguished themselves in Week 1, putting the boots to the outmanned New York Jets. Tom Brady’s line: 22-for-28, three TDs, zero picks, 146.6 passer rating.
Brady likely won’t put up those videogame numbers against the Chargers, but San Diego’s secondary is no great shakes, not even when compared to the Jets. For the Chargers to win this matchup, they need a lot more production out of LaDainian Tomlinson.
The Bears’ front seven had little problem stuffing the line of scrimmage and holding LT to 25 yards rushing; if Chicago had any semblance of an offense, it would have come out on top in Week 1 rather than limping to a 14-3 loss. The Pats’ rush defense is solid, even without end Richard Seymour, so expect them to succeed where the Bears couldn’t.
SHARE: The NFL's Crash Test Dummies
By: Marc Lawrence - 09/13/2007Week 2 of the NFL season is extremely critical for the teams that dropped one in the loss column to open their slate as less than 10% of the teams that go 0-2 reach the playoffs. "Running into you like this without warningis like catching a sniff of tequila in the morning.You flew by like a summer vacation...I think I'll disappear now, slip out sideways."
The road to success is paved with ____________. Go ahead, you fill in the blank.
Some say its Failure. Other insist its Intentions. Still, others maintain its Separation, or even Imitation, perhaps. Regardless, the road to success is not an easy one -- but the truth is some handle its hurdles better than others.
A good barometer in gauging success in the NFL is how teams respond the rest of the season after a rocky start. Some teams who hit the wall early on never seem to recover, while others tighten up their seatbelt and go at it harder than ever. That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, a total of 205 teams started the season 0-2. Of that group only 20 -- Yes, I said 20 -- went on to make the playoffs. That’s less than 10%, folks.
The bottom line: Game Two is pivotal to teams that lost their season opener if they hold aspirations of playing in the postseason.
These Game 2 situations instantly become 'crash tests,' if you will. And because of it, the pressure to win becomes a burden too heavy to bear for most teams, especially those playing in front of the hometown faithful. And as a handicapper we can take full advantage of the situation if we were to:
Play against any NFL Game 2 non-division home team off a loss versus an opponent off a loss.
That’s because these frustrated Game 2 hosts are just 14-34 ATS since 1980. Furthermore, whenever this airbag-less bunch is a favorite of four or more points they dip to 6-21 ATS (0-12 ATS since 1998).
Perhaps it’s the enormity of having to win, or maybe it’s the lack of preparation given to a non-division foe that sends a lump into the throat of these home teams. One thing is for certain, when these four-plus point favorites enter off a loss of seven or more points they become leading contenders for the next phase of crash testing dummies, as they become 1-15 ATS cadavers.
The last qualifying play was in 2005 when Green Bay drove off as a six-point favorite in a test case against Cleveland. The Packers lost the whole game, 26-24.
FYI: One other interesting twist to this theory occurs if our host lost Game 1 to a division opponent. When playing a winless non-division foe in Game 2 they are just 4-16 ATS, including 1-14 ATS if they were dogs and scored 13 or more points in the loss. Not only did they manage to lose a pivotal division game to open the season, their defense was not enough to withstand the head-on onslaught.
Let’s not be dummies about this. It’s time to fasten our seatbelts and enjoy the ride for the 2007 NFL season ahead.
SHARE: 2007 NFL Preview - AFC North
- 09/06/2007The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals give the AFC North a solid two-horse race for the 2007 season. Getting out of the gate fast will be crucial for both teams' postseason hopes. While this division is filled with playoff contenders in Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and one pretender in Cleveland, most experts believe that the Cincinnati Bengals will win the division. However, Baltimore is a slight favorite over Cincinnati at most books.
We believe we have a two-horse race here between Baltimore and Cincinnati. Baltimore’s defense gives them an upper hand in our book and the offense got a huge boost the addition of Willis McGahee. Cincinnati will get great offensive output this season but their defense is still questionable.
Standings Predictions:Baltimore 11-5Cincinnati 11-5Pittsburgh 9-7Cleveland 5-11
Baltimore RavensLast year I was not sold on the Baltimore Ravens and Steve McNair. Baltimore finished the season 13-3 last year and entered the playoffs as slight favorite over the eventual Super Bow Champions Indianapolis Colts.
I am sold on Baltimore this year as they will win the ACF North. McGahee will be an impact player to this team and leads by example. With 10 weeks left in the season last year, head coach Brian Billick fired the offensive coordinator and took over the play calling duties. All the Ravens did was go 9-1 in the next 10 games and the offense improved in yardage and total points scored.
Once again this year we will see Billick with the play sheet in his hands calling the plays from day one. Interestingly enough, it is like the league turned the Ravens' schedule upside down as they played within their division in four of their last six games last year. This year the Ravens play just one of their last six games in their own division. That puts a lot of pressure on the Ravens to perform early and win often.
The key then becomes the Ravens first 10 games as we mention their last six games are against San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, Miami, Seattle and Pittsburgh. Without a fast start to the season Baltimore could find themselves in the third spot of this division. Odds to win AFC Championship 9/1; Over/Under 9½ regular season wins; Odds to win AFC North 9/5.
Cincinnati BengalsI really would like to put Cincinnati on top as their offense will once again be on fire this year. Carson Palmer has had a full offseason to recover from any lingering effects of his knee sugary. There might not be a more accurate passer at than Palmer. The only reason we cannot put the Bengals on top is the still unknown defensive performance.
Opposite to Baltimore, the Bengals start the season with a tough schedule playing Baltimore, Cleveland, Seattle, and New England. Interesting matchups early will be the two non-division games with Seattle and New England. Early in the season, non-division games will mean more to a team than later in the season, and we should see top efforts from Seattle and New England. Folks that been around for a long time understand what we are talking about; we have had many great plays toward the end of a season when a top NFL team travels out of their division with no real motivation to win the game.
Once again these two teams flip-flopped schedules as this year Cincinnati will get to play the 49ers in San Francisco, Cleveland at home, and then the Dolphins in Miami. All are good closing games considering the weather in Florida and the Bay area. This scheduling will make the difference between finishing first or second in the division. Odds to win AFC Championship 7/1; Over/Under 9½ regular season wins; Odds to win the AFC North 3/2.
Pittsburgh SteelersThe Steelers came up short last year in defending their title, and while the best coaching new hire this offseason has to be Mike Tomlin, we believe they will come up just short again. We expect a fast start from Pittsburgh as they draw Cleveland, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Arizona for their opening four games; however, things get much tougher as they face Seattle, Denver, Cincinnati and Baltimore in their next four games and could end up 4-4 at best halfway through the season.
Pittsburgh's schedule will not get any easier as their last five games come against Cincinnati, New England, Jacksonville, St. Louis and Baltimore. While the Rams might look like the easiest of the five, it is not as they will play that game on the carpet in St. Louis. The defense will be sharp under their new head coach, but the Steelers offense is just too inconsistent at this point and cannot be counted on. I look for Tomlin to take this team to the top, but they will have to wait another year or two. Odds to win AFC Championship 14/1; Over/Under 9 regular season wins; Odds to win the AFC North 5/2.
Cleveland BrownsEven with a favorable schedule we don’t see the Browns improving enough make an impact this season. The Browns open the season playing three division opponents in their first four games. The good news is they play host to Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore; the bad news is they play Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. It will be a challenging task for Cleveland to get off on the right foot.
Additionally their remaining and middle of the season divisional game will be on the road. We were big backers of Romeo Crennel when he was hired as the head coach, but we have not seen the strides made that we and a lot of others believed he could make. Sometimes great offensive or defensive coordinators just don’t make that jump to head coach and this just might be the case for Crennel. While Cleveland did great in the draft this year it will be at least a full year before those draft picks pan out. Personally I do not see the bruising running style of Jamal Lewis fitting or helping. Odds to win AFC Championship 50/1; Over/Under 6 regular season wins; Odds to win the AFC North 7/1.
We don’t see great futures play here in this division. However, based on scheduling and the very favorable ending schedule for the Cincinnati Bengals, our best pick of the available lines would be to take Cincinnati to win more then 9½ games this season.
SHARE: 2007 NFL Preview - AFC West
- 09/06/2007The experts have already penciled San Diego in for the AFC Championship game next January vs New England. Mike Shanahan and his horses in Denver will be out to upset those plans. So let’s just hand the AFC West title to San Diego, give them a bye in the playoffs and move them straight to the Super Bowl. Slow down big guy, the Denver Broncos will have something to say about who wins the division before it is all over.
With all the potential head coaches available out there San Diego chose Norv Turner. I might be proven wrong before the season's out, and believe me I am not a Denver fan, in fact I am more of a Chargers fan then a Denver fan, ok back to my point -- Norv Turner?
Turner has had head coaching jobs and failed miserably in my opinion. He then goes back to being an offensive coordinator and performs admirably only to find himself a head coach again. Some coaches are great offensive or defensive coordinators but will never make a great head coach. I believe Norv Turner fits in that category. The Chargers did not lose in the playoffs last year because of Marty and if they win this year it won’t be because of Norv. Can you spell LT?
Standings Predictions:Denver 11-5San Diego 11-5Kansas City 7-9Oakland 5-11
Denver BroncosFantasy football owners all over the country have been frustrated with Mike Shanahan’s revolving running back position for last five years. With the trading of Tatum Bell and the acquisition of Travis Henry, we might see a little stability in the position.
With the decision to go with Jay Cutler at QB early last season the Broncos invested into this year and will see the dividends payoff. The erratic play of Jake Plummer is gone and replaced with a steady hand in Cutler.
The Broncos improved immensely on the defensive side of the ball. We see a solid 10 win season for Denver and with any luck, solid play, and a few good bounces they can surpass the 10 wins. Odds to the AFC Championship 10/1, Over/Under 9½ regular season wins, Odds to win the AFC West 7/5.
San Diego ChargersI might be repeating myself and may end up eating my words in the end, but I have to believe that Norv Turner was the worst possible hire in the NFL this year. Having said that, the Chargers enter the year as the team to beat in the AFC West and the number two favorite to make it to the Super Bowl.
Anytime you have the most dominate player in football on your team you will win games. Ladainian Tomlinson was disappointed last year and you can believe he will try to will this team to the Super Bowl. One of the extra motivations in the playoffs can come true if the 'experts' are right and San Diego winds up playing New England to move on we will have a big time revenge factor in that game.
Philip Rivers returns to lead one of the most talented offenses in the NFL and while I don’t like Turner as a head coach I am sure he won’t hurt their offense. The linebacking and front seven will be solid and we will wait to see how the secondary molds this year.
The Chargers open with two tough games as they host Chicago and then travel to New England to play their second game. Their next six games match them up with Green Bay, Kansas City, Denver, Oakland, Houston and Minnesota. They should easily get 4 wins in those 6 games, so if they can perform well and win in their first two games they have a schedule that will make them awfully difficult to catch. Odds to the AFC Championship 7/2, Over/Under 11 regular season wins, Odds to win the AFC Division 2/3.
Kansas City ChiefsThe Chiefs can be a difficult team to handicap at this point in time. I have to say that with Trent Green gone they will be a better team overall -- nothing against Green -- but it may take some time for that to show.
With the second best running back in the league in Larry Johnson and a solid back up in Bennett the Chiefs will not miss a beat in that area. The concerns again this year remain the passing offense and wide receiver core as KC’s best receiver has been their Tight End for years now.
The defense should be slightly better then last season but the jury will remain out on that one until halfway through the season. Even with a difficult schedule and a lot of unknowns the Chiefs can always win at home and usually do. Because of that we defiantly list them above the bottom of the league and they might even pull out an 8-8 season. Odds to the AFC Championship 30/1, Over/Under 7½ regular season wins, Odds to win the AFC West 10/1.
Oakland RaidersThe two things we can say about the Raiders this year are: 1) It can’t get worse then last year, and; 2) They play defense. The Raiders might not have gotten a lot of positive press but their defense was solid and it will once again be a good defense this year.
That leads us to the issue of the offense and what could have been the worst performing offensive line last season. The Raiders absolutely have to sign their #1 draft pick JaMarcus Russell and build a team around him. Until then I don’t see the Raiders going very far in this division.
When Vegas puts your win total over/under at five, things don’t look promising. Once again, the only bright side here is that it won’t be worse then last year. Odds to the AFC Championship 35/1, Over/Under 5 regular season wins, Odds to win the AFC West 10/1.
We don’t see futures play here in this division with the Chargers at 11 and Denver at 10. A potential push on both and who wants to wait all year to just get your money back. Much better futures plays are out there.
Follow these links to other division previews: NFC West ... AFC North ... NFC North .
SHARE: 2007 NFL Preview - NFC North
- 09/06/2007Behind strong play by their special teams and defense, the Bears went to the Super Bowl for the first time in two decades last season. Can Chicago repeat or will they stumble? Yes, the NFC North represented the conference in the Super Bowl last year, but we do not expect to see that again this year. This may one of the toughest divisions to handicap as each team brings something special to the table and then something not so special. While the Chicago Bears have an inside track to winning the division we could see plenty of stumbles along the way.
Standings Predictions:Chicago 10-6Detroit 9-7Green Bay 7-9Minnesota 6-8
Chicago BearsThe Bears drew a pretty difficult non-division schedule and a tough non-conference schedule to go along with their NFC North play. Chicago opens their season in San Diego and will also play Dallas, Philadelphia, Seattle, New Orleans and Denver. It is not all bad news for the Bears as they will also play Washington, Oakland, NY Giants and Kansas City outside of their division. The Bears will need to take care business in their division to control their destiny and not allow the non-divisional games interrupt their season.
The problem for the Bears here is, unlike last year, there are a couple division teams that can come up and bite them at any time. I don’t think anyone is sold on Rex Grossman yet and he is still as inconsistent as they come. As long as everyone asks who is going to show up today, the 'Good Rex' or 'Bad Rex,' the Chicago offense will continue to struggle. Still, they have great special teams play and the Chicago Bears are the team to beat in the division. Odds to win NFC Championship 9/2; Over/Under 10 regular season wins; Odds to win the NFC North 2/7.
Detroit LionsNo, I have not lost my mind and while it might seem far fetched to you that the Lions could finish second in the division, they will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. Normally teams can stay in games with a solid defense but the Lions' offense will keep them in just about every game this year. While they may lose high scoring close games, a bounce here or break here will determine if the Lions finish second or fourth.
Detroit drew a slightly easier schedule then the Bears and will have to contend with Oakland, Denver, San Diego and Kansas City. But the Lions will get Denver, the NY Giants and Dallas at home. With Mike Martz running the offense and the receiving corps and running backs available to him, this team will score points. Fantasy owners could find Jon Kitna at the top of the list in fantasy leagues around the country.
Once again the defense will be an unknown and will be inconsistent just like last year. Some games the Lions played stand-out defense and other games they flat-out looked awful. Most 'experts' believe Detroit will be lucky to go 8-8, but we have them one game better. No one thought the Detroit Tigers would get to the World Series last year, so it could happen with their gridiron team this year. Odds to win NFC Championship 45/1; Over/Under 6½ regular season wins; Odds to win the NFC North Division 4/1.
Green Bay PackersThis will be the most underrated defense walking into the season. It won’t take long for the public and oddsmakers to catch up to this fact. Opposite of the Lions, defense will keep the Packers in games. The unknown once again is the offensive unit and potential suffering at the running back position. Special teams play will need to improve.
The Packers open up a tough three game schedule by hosting the Philadelphia Eagles, then traveling to New York to take on the Giants and then back home to host San Diego. The Packers also end the season by traveling to St. Louis in Week 15 where they will have to play on the carpet which could create match-up issues, then to Chicago before hosting the Lions at home to close out the season. Too many unknowns on the offensive side to believe they will finish higher than third in the division. With a tough opening it will be a challenge to come out 4-4 at the halfway point as they could drop three of their first four games. Odds to win NFC Championship 16/1; Over/Under 7½ regular season wins, Odds to win the NFC North 5/1.
Minnesota VikingsThe Vikings have the opportunity to surprise some folks around the league and they are getting some notice. However, I believe the Vikings will end up with a disappointing season. Minnesota could have some real problems on the offensive side of the ball, and unless they get a huge jump in the expected play at the QB position they will be in for a long year.
The Vikings also did very little to improve in the offseason and once again teams will have a field day passing against a weak secondary. While there is potential for a strong running game most teams will stack up the line and dare them to throw over the top. The Vikings opening the season with the softest schedule of all the teams within the division, but that still won’t get them over the top as they play Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia and San Diego starting in Week 6 and finish the season at Denver. Odds to win NFC Championship 16/1; Over/Under 7½ regular season wins; Odds to win the NFC North 11/2.
Some interesting numbers to consider here in futures play; like the fact that the oddsmakers have set Chicago’s win total at 10. That looks too easy and looks more like a trap to me. Secondly they post Detroit at 4/1 to win their division and the Packers at 5½/1 yet the win total for Detroit is 6½ and the Packers at 7½. That tells me an adjustment was made to the win total based on public perception of both the Packers and the Lions. While there are no huge value on the table we feel the best futures play for this division is on the Detroit Lions to surpass 6½ wins.

Poker has many variations, all following a similar pattern of play.
The right to deal each hand typically rotates among the players and is marked by a token called a 'dealer' button or buck. In a casino, a house dealer handles the cards for each hand, but a button (typically a white plastic disk) is rotated clockwise among the players to indicate a nominal dealer to determine the order of betting.
One or more players are required to make forced bets to create an initial stake for which the players will contest. The dealer shuffles the cards, he cuts, and the appropriate number of cards are dealt to the players one at a time. Cards may be dealt either face-up or face-down, depending on the variant of poker being played. After the initial deal, the first of what may be several betting rounds begins. Between rounds, the players' hands develop in some way, often by being dealt additional cards or replacing cards previously dealt. At the end of each round, all bets are gathered into the central pot.
At any time during a betting round, if a player makes a bet, opponents are required to fold, call or raise. If one player bets and no opponents choose to call (match) the bet, the hand ends immediately, the bettor is awarded the pot, no cards are required to be shown, and the next hand begins. This possibility of winning a pot without showing a hand makes bluffing possible. Bluffing is a primary feature of poker, one that distinguishes it from other vying games and from other games that make use of poker hand rankings.
At the end of the last betting round, if more than one player remains, there is a showdown, in which the players reveal their previously hidden cards and evaluate their hands. The player with the best hand according to the poker variant being played wins the pot.
The most popular poker variants are as follows:
Draw poker Players each receive five — as in five-card draw — or more cards, all of which are hidden. They can then replace one or more of these cards a certain number of times. Stud poker Players receive cards one at a time, some being displayed to other players at the table. The key difference between stud and 'draw' poker is that players are not allowed to discard or replace any cards. Community card poker Players combine individually dealt cards with a number of "community cards" dealt face up and shared by all players. Each player will attempt to make the best five card poker hand using the community cards and their own face down cards. Two or four individual cards may be dealt in the most popular variations, Texas hold 'em and Omaha hold 'em, respectively.

The history of poker is a matter of debate. It closely resembles the Persian game of as nas, and may have been taught to French settlers in New Orleans by Persian sailors. The name of the game likely descended from the French poque, which descended from the German pochen ('to knock'). Yet it is not clear whether the origins of poker itself lie with the games bearing those names. It is commonly regarded as sharing ancestry with the Renaissance game of primero and the French brelan. The English game brag (earlier bragg) clearly descended from brelan and incorporated bluffing (though the concept was known in other games by that time). It is quite possible that all of these earlier games influenced the development of poker as it exists now.
English actor Joseph Crowell reported that the game was played in New Orleans in 1829, with a deck of 20 cards and four players betting on which player's hand was the most valuable. Jonathan H. Green's book, An Exposure of the Arts and Miseries of Gambling (G. B. Zieber, Philadelphia, 1843), described the spread of the game from there to the rest of the country by Mississippi riverboats, on which gambling was a common pastime. As it spread up the Mississippi and West during the gold rush, it is thought to have become a part of the frontier pioneer ethos.
Harry Truman's poker chipsSoon after this spread, the full 52-card English deck was used, and the flush was introduced. During the American Civil War, many additions were made, including draw poker, stud poker (the five-card variant), and the straight. Further American developments followed, such as the wild card (around 1875), lowball and split-pot poker (around 1900), and community card poker games (around 1925). The spread of the game to other countries, particularly in Asia, is often attributed to the U.S. military.
The game and jargon of poker have become important parts of American culture and English culture. Such phrases and clichés as ace in the hole, ace up one's sleeve, beats me, blue chip, call one's bluff, cash in, high roller, pass the buck, poker face, stack up, up the ante, when the chips are down, wild card, and others are used in everyday conversation, even by those unaware of their origins at the poker table.
Poker Room at the Trump Taj Mahal, Atlantic City, New JerseyModern tournament play became popular in American casinos after the World Series of Poker began, in 1970. Notable champions from these early WSOP tournaments include Johnny Moss, Amarillo Slim, Bobby Baldwin, and Doyle Brunson. It was also during that decade that the first serious strategy books appeared, notably Super/System by Doyle Brunson (ISBN 1-58042-081-8) and The Book of Tells by Mike Caro (ISBN 0-89746-100-2), followed later by The Theory of Poker by David Sklansky (ISBN 1-880685-00-0).
Poker’s popularity experienced an unprecedented spike at the beginning of the 21st century, largely because of the introduction of online poker and the invention of the hole-card camera, which turned the game into a spectator sport. Viewers could now follow the action and drama of the game, and broadcasts of poker tournaments such as the World Series of Poker and the World Poker Tour brought in huge audiences for cable and satellite TV distributors. Because of the increasing coverage of poker events, poker pros are becoming more and more like celebrities, with poker fans all over the world entering into expensive tournaments for the chance to play with them. This increased camera exposure also brings a new dimension to the poker professional's game—the realization that their actions may be aired later on TV.
Major poker tournament fields have grown dramatically because of the growing popularity of online satellite-qualifier tournaments where the prize is an entry into a major tournament. The 2003 and 2004 WSOP champions, Chris Moneymaker and Greg Raymer, respectively, won their seats to the main event by winning online satellites.

How to Gamble with a chance of winning

Virtually all games at a casino are games of chance, and in nearly every instance the odds are in the house's favor. It's possible to get lucky and win sometimes, but nearly impossible to win in the long run. However, there are a couple of notable exceptions to the rule, where you can gain a slight advantage over the house.
Avoid roulette, keno, slots because of the enormous house advantage. Craps, video poker, and blackjack have considerably better odds, and depending on the variations in the rules blackjack can actually give the player the advantage (although this is rare).
Steer clear of newfangled table games, virtually all of which are constructed to give the house a real advantage.
Polish your poker skills. Poker is unique amongst casino games that you play against the other players, not the house. So if you develop some good poker skills, and get seated at a table with poor players, you could have a significant advantage and high probability of winning.
Learn to count cards in blackjack. Card counting is technically legal but casinos often do not allow it. If they suspect you are counting cards, you will be asked to stop playing or leave the casino. Counting cards involves paying attention to every single card turned over by the dealer, realizing by implication which cards are left in the deck, and increasing your bet when the remaining cards offer you a mathematical advantage.
Tips
Poker is currently quite popular and many players have excellent skills. Furthermore there is often a population of 'grinders' -- locals who play technically efficient poker with the goal of earning a steady income. These factors combine to make it difficult to win. Despite that fact that poker offers you the theoretical potential to have an advantage over the other players, the high skill level of many players may also mean you are at a large disadvantage!
Playing to win requires intense concentration, sobriety, a lack of emotion, and many hours of practice in play. You may find that in trying to gain an advantage over the house, you take all the fun out of gambling.