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betting on football

betting on football
NFL Preseason Less Than a Month AwayWith baseball taking a few days off for the all star break, now is a good time to look ahead at the upcoming football season. Most bettors like to take this time to rest and re-charge their batteries – but for the truly hardcore out there the first preseason game kicks off on August 5. As long time readers remember, the preseason is a great time to make money. Soon, in my continuing Handicapping Theory series, I’ll be detailing the keys to handicapping preseason football. Till then, take a look at the power rankings for the top 10 NFL teams according to ESPN.
Betting Preseason Football Last week I talked about how the House comes up with a pointspread and what it represents. Preseason football is the first opportunity we have to bet pointspreads each year (in the bookmaking world, your year starts in August) so naturally that is the topic for this week.
Unlike college football where there is no preseason, the pros play four or five games to work out the kinks before the regular season starts. Coaches use these games to sharpen skills that are tough to work on in practice (special teams, tackling, etc.), to determine starting positions, to test new offensive or defensive formations and to practice new plays at game speed among other things. Some coaches are also under pressure to perform well in preseason to help sell tickets or to gain a little job security. Starting players use the preseason to sharpen their skills and improve their timing while rookies and backups try and gain starting positions. Unlike the regular season, where winning every game is everyone’s goal, the preseason features a variety of mindsets for players and coaches alike. This is the key to making money betting on preseason football – understanding the motivation for every player and coach on a team.
Lets use the opening game between Washington and San Francisco (played in Japan on August 3rd) as an example. The 49ers were 12-4 last year (two of their losses were to the powerhouse St. Louis Rams), their key personnel on offense are all returning (QB Jeff Garcia, RB Garrison Hearst, WRs Terrell Owens and JJ Stokes) and the team understands the philosophy and playbook of their coaching staff. The ‘Skins were just 8-8 last year (although they did finish 8-3), have a new coach (their fourth in less than two years) who emphasized the passing game in college so they have a whole new playbook to learn and will have to so without any of last year’s QBs (Tony Banks, Jeff George and Kent Graham who is now with Houston) or leading receiver (Michael Westbrook who is now with Cincinnati). The two teams had unimpressive preseason records in 2001. Both teams were 1-3, but Washington failed to cover a single pointspread while the 49ers were 2-2 ATS (against-the-spread). On paper the 49ers had to be the favorite team and the opening line was San Francisco –2.5 based on talent alone.
Early action was very light as bettors waited to hear how the coaches would approach the game. It became evident very quickly via interviews that Washington’s rookie coach Steve Spurrier was going to play his starters much longer than the 49er starters, especially on offense where his playbook is very complex and key starting roles have yet to be determined. He was going to use this game to teach the playbook to the entire offensive unit as well as evaluate the best players for starting roles. Washington also has a new defensive outlook with former Ravens defensive whiz Marvin Lewis at the helm and he too was looking to teach his schemes to his squad. San Francisco on the other hand has relatively set starting units and familiar playbooks so head coach Steve Mariucci was looking at this game as a chance to evaluate second and third-string players for back-up roles. Books quickly moved the line from 49ers –2.5 all the way to Washington –3 as action came the Redskins way at every point in between.
The game wasn’t close for long. San Francisco’s second stringers scored to go up 7-0 early in the second quarter but it was all Redskins from there. The Redskins starting offensive line was in the game in the third quarter while the 49ers starting linemen were resting well before halftime. Washington’s starting QB Sage Rosenfels played the entire first half and attempted 20 passes while San Francisco’s starting QB Jeff Garcia played just 10 minutes and attempted only four passes. Washington’s second-string QB Danny Wuerffel played the entire second half and attempted 25 passes, many with a large lead and against the third and fourth string-players of San Francisco. The 49ers on the other hand played three other QBs who attempted just 19 passes. Spurrier wanted his new team to believe in his system and his bosses to be impressed. Mariucci wanted to evaluate talent and expose some bench players to more playing time to help his team later in the regular season when injuries take their toll. One other item of note, these two teams meet again in September and so the 49ers did not run any plays from their regular playbook that the Redskins will see in the regular season game. The Redskins demonstrated no such forethought. It all boiled down to a 38-7 Redskins win but it was evident on the field that talent wasn’t the deciding factor, motivation was.
Preseason NFL handle has grown steadily over the past few years as more and more bettors begin to understand how to handicap the games. It wasn’t very long ago that just a handful of books offered lines on these games. Now, every sportsbook takes the basic wagers such as spreads, totals, parlays and teasers for the exhibition season and many shops are adding other modern wager types like first-halfs, half-times, quarter lines and even the occasional prop bet. From the House’s point-of-view, more games are always better so I expect this trend to continue in the future.
The biggest difference between regular season and preseason for the books side is that they are far more aggressive with line moves. I asked ’s top book manager Kent for his thoughts on preseason line moves. “With regular season lines, we have a pretty good idea what the spread should be and where it will close so line moves are made with calculated precision. With preseason we have some ideas but because the handle is lower for every game and there are so many player changes we just follow the money and try a lot harder to balance action. This means there are a few more games where the score falls on a bad number for the house because of the extra line moves so we compensate by keeping the maximum a little lower.”
I also asked for his thoughts on the first full week of preseason games. “Last weekend we did very well when late public money came in heavy on the 49ers and Texans in the Hall-of-Fame Weekend games. The total in the Texans-Giants Monday Night game was bet heavily down from 31 to 29 and with the total landing on 51 we got the NFL season off to a great start. On Thursday, everybody was in on Pittsburgh and the Over so that game (Jets 16-6) was great as well. Friday saw big action and players winning with the Falcons and a moderate win for the House with Dallas beating the Raiders. Saturday was a little ugly as big line moves were the order of the day. For example, Denver moved from +1 to –3 and the Titans went from +1 to –2. There were also a few scores resulted in sides and middles in favor of the players. The Redskins opened and closed as 7-point favorites with some moves to –7.5 and –8 in there so their 37-30 win wasn’t great for us. The Giants/Pats game also fell on the line (Giants –3 and 22-19 final score), as did the Titans/Rams game (28-26 final). We lost on the Broncos and Browns, but did well on the Saints and Chargers. Overall, it was a break-even day but it was good to have to think through the key-number line moves that we haven’t had to do since Super Bowl. Then there was the Monday Night game where we were heavy on Miami +6 and Gruden elects to punt in the last minute with a 4-point lead from the Dolphins 27 instead of kicking a Field Goal to go up 7 and cover. Oh well, that's why they play the games.”
For those of you that are new to betting, I will be talking a little more about sides, middles, line moves and key numbers in upcoming columns so stay tuned. Next week I will cover balancing action, which involves all of these factors. For now, remember to think about the motivation of the team you are playing. I also recommend checking coaches past records in pre-season for an indication. Perhaps knowing the 49ers were just 2-7 in the last two pre-seasons (4-5 ATS) would have helped you cash in on the Redskins last Saturday, if you didn’t already…
Effect of Approaching All Star BreakWith the All Star break fast approaching, now is the time to consider its effect for the smart sports bettor. First and most importantly, baseball teams will likely not be resting their best players and pitchers. Typically during the long regular season a team will occasionally rest their starters (or only play them part of the game) – and even more importantly, will use their bullpen with an eye on upcoming games . . . but with the All Star break comes built in days off, so expect managers to play all starters, and to use their bullpen almost as it were the 7th game of a playoff series.Saturday July 7, 2007 Tips on 5-Inning Baseball WagersSometimes as a handicapper digs deeper into his betting options, a more exotic type of bet offers strong value. 5-inning baseball bets only involve the first 5 innings of the game – and in certain ways are simpler than full game bets. But, in this case, knowing what factors to consider and what factors not to consider makes all the difference. Next in my continuing Handicapping Theory Series: Tips pf 5-inning baseball wagers. Monday July 2, 2007 Overrated and Underrated Baseball TeamsTalking to a pro bettor friend of mine in Las Vegas recently, the conversation turned to baseball – specifically the teams he’s been looking to play on, and the teams he’s been looking to play against. In the overrated camp, he places the D’Backs and the Mariners. In the underrated camp, he leads with Baltimore, and then follows with the Reds. I’ll be looking to play on and against his picks because he’s history on winning warrants it. But keep in mind, that these are general guidelines, and with baseball handicapping you need to consider many factors each day.Sunday July 1, 2007 : Online Sportsbook LeaderIn the evolution of any elite company, first comes being the new kid on the block. Later comes being an industry standard. In between is the time when a company grows into a leadership position – and that’s where stands today. Not the biggest, not the most well known, but doing many of the right thing necessary to get there one day. Take a look at all the pros and cons in our A- review of . Friday June 29, 2007 permalink comments (1)NBA Draft: Another Chance to BetOn one hand, the NBA draft is a chance for the serious handicapper to learn about new players entering the league. But, leave it to sportsbooks to allow for even more instant action. , for example, is allowing you to bet on a wide range of props, including who will be pick #3 through #8, the number of international players in round 1, plus the number of players taken from each of the major conferences in round 1. Remember, this sort of action can be fun, but your bets should be small because such props usually charge a large amount of vig. Thursday June 28, 2007 How to Handicap Baseball TotalsThe information available on the theory behind baseball totals is only a fraction of that available on baseball sides, even though the number of possible MLB totals you can bet equals the number of sides you can bet. In fact, a number of my Las Vegas pro bettor friends focus exclusively on baseball totals! Click to see my extensive article on how to handicap baseball totals.Sunday June 24, 2007 How to Handicap Baseball SidesBaseball is a complicated sport to handicap - which means that it sometimes causes trouble for beginners, but also means it can offer great value once you understand its nuances. The next in my continuing series of Handicapping Theory articles is how to handicap baseball sides - a great first read on your way to becoming an advanced baseball bettor.Friday June 22, 2007 Slow Stretch Between Basketball and FootballWe are in the middle of a once-a-year six week stretch in which there’s no basketball or football. What’s left for the year-around bettor is baseball, NASCAR, and occasional sports like boxing and MMA (Mixed Marshall Arts). I’ll be here every day till football kicks off, providing daily free picks and more – but also available to directly answer your questions. Simply email me here with your questions and they will get my personal attention – whether they apply to this time of year, or to the football season which is just around the corner. Thursday June 21, 2007 SportBet: An Undiscovered GemThere are a number of the biggest sportsbooks that most gamblers have heard of. In general, people know what is good and not so good about them. On the other hand, there are many smaller sportsbooks that the majority of bettors know very little about. While many of these small books are extremely flawed, a few offer exceptional value. My sportsbook review project will attempt to uncover the gems while steering you clear of the dangerous duds. > Take a look at our A- review of SportBetMonday June 18, 2007
College Football Betting
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NCAA Football Conferences: Division I-A:
Atlantic Coast Conference Big 12 Conference Big East Conference Big Ten Conference
IA Independent Conference Mid American Conference Mountain West Conference Pacific 10 Conference Southeastern Conference Sun Belt Conference USA Conference Western Athletic Conference Division I-AA:
Atlantic 10 Conference Big Sky Conference Big South Conference Gateway Conference Great West Conference IAA Independent Conference Ivy Conference Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Northeast Conference Ohio Valley Conference Patriot League Conference Pioner Conference Southern Conference Southland Conference Southwestern Athletic Conference

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