kentucky derby betting lines
Longshot stands a great chance to be the longest price on the toteboard after being defeated by more than 32 lengths in the Blue Grass. Hard to imagine he's the 2006 version of Giacomo or even Closing Argument.
Showing UpThe unbeaten and lightly-raced colt has been playing catch up all spring, and that's a recipe for disaster on Derby Day. With only three career starts and persisting foot problems, he had better be a monster to overcome all this. His Lexington win was solid, but it's not representative of superstardom.
Comparing Seaside Retreat to the 2006 version of Giacomo or Closing Argument is a little tough to do. (Ed Reinke / Associated Press)
Keyed EntryHere's another colt with the ability to take the lead in this race if jockey Patrick Valenzuela wants it — which would only fan the flames of a speed duel. The aggressive, front-running jockey almost assures he'll be turning up the heat early …but he'll likely be gasping late.
Deputy GlittersThe Tampa Bay Derby winner just doesn't appear fast enough to keep pace with the fleet of early runners and will be hard-pressed to forge by in the stretch based on his past performances.
Sinister MinisterBob Baffert's one-trick pony needs to blaze early and pray for the Derby gods to smile upon him late. That scenario appears to be too tall of an order given the quality speed opposition in this race.
Storm TreasureThe horse dropped far back and made a pick-up-the-pieces run to be second in the Blue Grass stakes at 65-to-1 odds; will likely try similar tactics, but those in front will be much tougher to run down this time.
Flashy BullSuffered from some minor health issues when soundly defeated in the Florida Derby, but was a mark of consistency prior to that. He should be a big price and has a shot for a top-half finish, though getting a big paycheck is unlikely.
Private VowA top-notch, middle-distance runner at age two, he's still a major question mark around two turns and has made two uninspiring attempts this spring. Much respect for trainer Steve Asmussen, as he'll need his best training job ever to garner the roses.
SteppenwolferDeep closer will wait for the front-end fray to loosen up and then try to weave his way through the maze. He was no match for Lawyer Ron in Arkansas and may be the kind of teaser horse that lures many to his camp — but he needs so many things to go his way.
Bob and JohnOf the three Bob Baffert entrants (Sinister Minister and Point Determined being the others), he's certainly the most consistent and accomplished. However, Bob and John doesn't seem to have much upside — what you see is what you get, which has been pretty darned solid … but unspectacular. Can't envision a scenario where he gets trounced, but can't see him rising to slay the giants, either.
Five Who Could Light the Board
Bluegrass CatThe 2005 Remsen winner may be the single-most disappointing colt in this spring's class, sporting a marvelous pedigree and freshman credentials that made many think he was Todd Pletcher's best Derby hopeful ever. Losses in the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes have sent most supporters scurrying to the crow line at the mess hall. Sneaky suspicion here that he's not over the hill just yet, as Tampa and Keeneland are ridiculously peculiar surfaces that horses love or hate. Reminds me a little of 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch, and WinStar racing manager Elliott Walden used Tampa to tune-up Menifee before a 1998 Derby second. He could tank or wake up, but strong-finishing jockey Ramon Dominguez in the saddle won't hurt as a last-minute replacement for injured superstar John Velazquez.
BarbaroYes, he's unbeaten at 5-for-5. Yes, he's shown that distance will be no problem. Yes, he's ridden by the sport's current top dog, Edgar Prado. So why is Barbaro slotted for only a possible nibble at the minor prizes? The colt has tons of talent, but his turn of foot on turf and dirt are incomparable, with the former his considerably preferred surface. He's had an extremely light campaign as planned by Derby rookie trainer Mike Matz, which may work well in the equestrian world, but which has proven to be a poor option under the Twin Spires. Horses with only two preps to fail miserably in the Derby in recent years have been stellar by the time the Belmont rolls around (Lemon Drop Kid, Point Given, Birdstone, etc). And the Belmont is often run like a turf race — slower early pace, tactical speed and late acceleration a must. Barbaro could very well cap the Triple Crown with a score, but don't think it's coming in the series opener.
Jazil is the deep closer with the most potential. (Al Behrman / Associated Press)
JazilLong-winded colt has a big future for underrated trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He looks to be a few races away from his best effort, but if the race falls apart up front, Jazil is the deep closer with the most potential. Though pedigree is overrated in modern Kentucky Derby handicapping, it's hard to argue with his gene pool. The final time and final fractions of the Wood Memorial were miserably slow, which makes his visually impressive late rush a bit more tempered. Nonetheless, he has the ability to make a dent in this race at a very square price.
Sharp HumorSinister Minister looks like the only horse on paper that can truly run with this horse for the opening three-quarters of a mile. Given the bumper-cars nature of the Kentucky Derby, it's not wise to ever assume a two-horse speed duel. A minor bump to Sinister Minister or Sharp Humor in the opening jumps alone completely changes the complexion of the race. I like how trainer Dale Romans has thrown the gauntlet down and basically told anyone who wants to be near the early pace to think twice. Many likely will. This horse will not stop once attacked by the mid-pack and late movers. He's tough, though likely to find at least a challenger or two too much to hold off after grueling fractions. Of all the big-time front runners, he's got the most appeal at a very nice price.
A.P. WarriorDisappointing in the Santa Anita Derby, and quite frankly underachieving since a ballyhooed debut last summer. But don't be surprised if this Californian jumps up on Derby Day with a strong effort. Corey Nakatani is the most aggressive, bold big-race rider in America and is paired with a horse who figures to be in the mix turning from home form just off a hot pace. He'll get first run on the tiring speed and a jump on the deep closers. John Shirreffs won last year's Derby with Giacomo, whose form looked eerily similar to this guy. In almost every scenario I construct, A.P. Warrior projects as a top-six finisher, and an even higher placing is well within striking distance.
Five for the Top Prize:
Brother DerekCalifornia's top-rated runner and likely post-time Derby favorite has been cruising through his spring tune-ups. A two-time Grade 1 winner of the Hollywood Futurity and Santa Anita Derby, he announced his Derby candidacy with a victory over Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and 2005 champion 2-year-old Stevie Wonderboy in January. With four consecutive wins and a morning work ethic that's second-to-none, there are few flaws with Brother Derek. The big question will be: Did he get anything out of his walk-in-the-park victories the past few months against a grand total of 14 horses? Front-running types cannot take a bad step and find the going smooth — he'll need to keep clear of trouble, which could compromise his finishing ability. It's hard to imagine that he'll retreat without a serious response, however.
SweetnorthernsaintThe toughest thing for many horseplayers to do is to admit when they were wrong. I'll come clean: This horse is much better than I've given him credit for all spring. The Illinois Derby turned out to be the most impressive prep victory of the season by many standards, including my own. Now, can he keep the ball rolling? Sweetnorthernsaint did benefit from a soft pace at Hawthorne, and he'll need to run harder for longer on Derby Day. With the way he's dominated his rivals, that scenario looks like a promising possibility. I do, however, expect him to be a "hot" horse on Derby Week and take a lot of betting action, possibly as low as 7-to-1 or 8-to-1 by post time, which would be an awfully tough price to take.
Like Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron has shown tremendous acceleration to get himself in and out of trouble. (Garry Jones / Associated Press)
Point DeterminedHere's Bob Baffert's best chance at Derby win No. 4, based on his strong runner-up try in the Santa Anita Derby and forward-moving campaign. Point Determined is a son of 2002 Horse of the Year Point Given, who won the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers after finishing fifth in the Derby as the favorite. Point Given raced only twice before the Derby, however, and ran out of gas after a gangbusters move on the turn. His son has more foundation in the tank after making six starts since Dec. 26, 2005. He galloped out extremely well after the Santa Anita Derby when he was compromised by Brother Derek's leisurely merry-go-round on the front end. Jockey Rafael Bejarano likely will have a few Derby trophies on his mantle before the young Peruvian's career ends. This could very well be the first. He's a major league win contender at a mid-level price.
Cause to BelieveAt odds likely to be in excess of 25-to-1, late-running Cause to Believe is my choice as the best longshot play in Derby 132. A smooth mover on the racetrack, this Northern California-based horse already has beaten the likes of major 2006 prep winners A.P. Warrior, Sinister Minister and Wanna Runner. His disappointing effort in the Illinois Derby (when a distant third to Sweetnorthernsaint) could very well be attributed to a dull early pace that didn't suit his late-running style. If there's one thing for sure on May 6, it's that the pace will be brisk up front. For my money, he's the best closer in the field and will bring his supporters to their feet with a thrill turning for home.
Lawyer RonOf the nearly one dozen horses in this year's Derby who want to fire fast from the opening bell, Lawyer Ron has shown the most ability to succeed — even if he doesn't get things his own way. With a 20-horse stampede, things rarely come up rosy for Derby runners; so versatility and talent play important roles. Like Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex, who dominated Arkansas the past two years, Lawyer Ron has shown tremendous acceleration to get himself in and out of trouble. The most battle-tested horse in this year's field, the Derby will be his 15th lifetime start. He likely will be the second choice behind Brother Derek in the wagering, but I give him the biggest chance at being draped with the roses.
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