kentucky derby betting tips
Ignore the information regarding the exacta, trifecta and superfacta for the moment. Had you bet $2 to win on Real Quiet, you would have won $18.80 (a profit of $16.80). Had you put $2 to show on Real Quiet your payoff would have been $5.80. However, had you bet $2 to win on Victory Gallop, you would have lost your bet. A $2 bet to place on Victory Gallop would pay you $13.00, but a $2 bet to place on Indian Charlie returns nothing. Had you bet across the board on Real Quiet you would have won $30.40 (18.80 + 8.80 + 5.80). An across the board bet on Indian Charlie would pay you only $4.20, which would mean a net loss of $1.20 because the minimum across the board bet is $6 ($2 each for win, place and show). Got it? One more point. When stepping to the betting window (after making sure you aren't at the $100 minimum bet window unless you want to be) you need to know three things: first, the amount of your bet (which must be at least $2); second, the type of bet, like win, place or show; and third, the number of the horse on which you are betting. This number can be found in the program offered at the track, usually for a very small fee. The number given a horse does NOT correspond to his post position in the starting gate, so don't make the mistake of getting them confused. Read the program, and you'll be fine. If you have a question, ask before handing over your money. Once you place a bet its yours to keep. So, had you been a wise handicapper at the 1998 Derby, you would have gone to a betting window and said, "I'd like to bet $2 to win on the 2 horse."
Now the other bets. Here are some definitions from the Daily Racing Form: Exacta (or Perfecta): A wager in which the first two finishers in a race, in exact order of finish, must be picked. Quinella: Wager in which first two finishers must be picked, but payoff is made no matter which of the two wins and which runs second. Trifecta (or Triple): A wager picking the first three finishers in exact order. Superfecta: You are a winner if your selected horses come in first, second, third and fourth in exact order of finish in a race.
Call To The Derby Post usually stays away from trifecta and superfecta bets simply because they aren't very simple. On the other hand, exactas and quinellas are a big favorite. Although this can be seen more clearly at the Official Tip Sheet, exacta and quinella bets allow you to choose a group of horses, rather than just one, and place bets on all of them. Say there are three horses in a race you like, but you cannot choose between them. Pick who you think is the best of the three, then match that horse with the other two in an exacta or a quinella (a quinella protects you from picking the top two finishers but losing the bet because one beat the other by a nose.) Exactas are a great way to get started on handicapping, and offer more of a challenge, and a higher payoff, than simple win bets.
Betting at horse tracks is pari-mutuel betting, which means you are betting against other bettors, not house-made odds like at a sports book at a casino. Odds on horses are determined by the amount of money wagered on a particular horse; if no one bets on a horse, his odds will be lower (like 50-1) but there will be a higher payoff--therefore the lure of betting on the longshot.
Comparing the Field
The greatest tool used in handicapping are the entries published in the Daily Racing Form. If you want more information on how to read these forms, head to their site. Instead of explaining those details here, Call To The Derby Post will focus on the ideas upon which the information in the DRF is predicated. Condition
One factor to consider is the condition of a horse. Is the horse running "in form" or "off form"? DRF writer Brad Free sums it up this way: "Determining condition can be a simple matter of evaluating a horse's recent races. Has the horse been finishing in the top half of the field? If he is a front-runner, has he been showing speed? If he is a late runner, has he been gaining ground on the leaders?" In other words, has a horse performed well as of late? Condition can still be a tricky conideration, however, especially for young horses like the 3-year olds who race in the Triple Crown. More often than not, as a matter of fact, the Derby champion has lost his last race before the Derby. Could it be that horses that win Derby prep races are burnt out by the time they reach Churchill Downs? Or have the races they lost actually been close or to stiff competition? Still, although the condition factor can be a bit murky leading up to Derby Day, it is safe to say that a horse who has not shown any promise in his prep races will not have a "career" day and come from nowhere to win the Derby. If a horse has not been competitve in the prep races, forget about it.
Class
Again, a quote from DRF writer Brad Free: "Class is the next point of evaluation - is the horse running at a level where he previously has been competitive? Or, has he recently improved, enough to take his game to a higher level? Class is closely linked to current condition, and sharp horses frequently move up the ladder." In all honesty, horses running in Triple Crown races are in a class amongst themselves. You can't go higher in class than the Kentucky Derby. So it is fair to say that Derby contenders have already reached the top of the ladder and that the class principle in terms of handicapping applies more to the average race rather than the top races of the Triple Crown. Still, out of a field of about 20 horses, it is possible to use class as a way of cutting that field in half, or even down to a third, of top contenders. Once you've selected an elite group of horses you think are distinct from the rest of the field, you've taken the first step of handicapping a race like the Derby. After all, you don't go from 20 horses entered in a race straight down to one; you've got to meddle through the field a bit more wisely than that. It's a similar idea to condition: if a horse hasn't been competitive with any of the other Derby horses in the preps, he is not going to magically win the Derby.
Speed
The most popular standard of speed comparisons are the Beyer Speed Figures, which note how fast a horse can run and take into account the "fluctuating speed of a racing strip." To read more about these figures, head to the Daily Racing Form. In essence, figures earned under similar circumstance as the race which you are handicapping will be the ones to use. What type of history does the horse have in terms of racing? Has he run longer or shorter races, around one turn or two, and how has he performed under varying circumstances? As you might expect, and as briefly alluded to earlier, speed is the brother of pace. Since the Derby is a relatively long race, speed horses generally do not fair well in the Derby. Those with pace and that can last the whole mile-and-a-quarter distance might have an advantage, although even if a horse with lots of stamina must have some speed. If he falls too far behind the speed horses, generally a race's pace-setter, he may have too far to go to catch up at the end.
Pace
Brad Free introduces an interesting theory about pace, and used two past Kentucky Derbies as examples. His basic theory is that in a race filled with horses with similar styles, horses with the opposite style may hold an advantage. In the 1996 Kentucky Derby there were several speed horses, horses that jumped to the lead early like Honour and Glory, Matty G and Unbridled's Song. These speed runners burnt each other out, tiring at the stretch and leaving room for late-closers Grindstone, Cavonnier and Prince of Thieves. By contrast, the 1988 Kentucky Derby was filled with closers, those who come off the pace. But while all the closers were waiting to make their move, speed horse Winning Colors took the early lead and held it. Her speed was too much for the closers who were waiting for her to fade. In Mr. Free's words, the theory to take note of is this: "Generally, the more speed races there are in a race, the greater are a closer's chance to win. Conversely, fewer front-runners mean those who do have speed may hold an edge."
Analyzing these four factors together should help you create a a solid picture of how a race will be run, and hopefully, which horses will come in the money.
Pedigree
As noted in the Call To The Derby Post History of Horse Racing, the training and breeding of thoroughbreds goes back several hundred years. Whether it be for war, long races or short races, horsemen have always been looking to breed the best to the best then hoping for the best, aiming to engineer as close to the perfect horse as possible. It is no surprise, then, that when handicapping a race, pedigree plays a very large factor when determining which horse literally has the blood of a champion. What follows below is a more in-depth look at the fine art of breeding and the importance of understanding pedigree before heading to the betting window.
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