kentucky derby tips
Kentucky Derby Future Wager TipsBy: Mark Midland
With record pools in 2002, a very deep list of Derby hopefuls this year, and a new Kentucky Oaks future wager, year five of the Future Wager promises to be the most exciting and possibly most lucrative Future Wager to date. For horseplayers, the questions are how to make money, have fun and win some bragging rights via some nice scores on the Future Wager. With four years of history, we can take a look at some trends and the keys to profiting on this wager.
The WinnersThe first four years of the Future Wager are split 50-50 between nice payouts on contenders and mutuel field horses that caught everyone by surprise. Although a small sample, this shows that there are two ways to make money, and it pays to consider both. In 2001 and 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos were available at generous prices in pool #1 compared to their starting prices on Derby day. The other two years, Charismatic and War Emblem came out of nowhere to give the field players the money. The best of both worlds is to take two or three shots at some contenders with nice prices, and then use a sizeable field bet to hedge your bet. Come Derby day, chances are you will have more than 50% of the horses, and a variety of ways to collect.
Winning payout Pool 1 Pool 2 Pool 3 Derby payout 2002 (War Emblem) $7.60 $16.00 $24.00 $43.00 2001 (Monarchos) $36.60 $13.00 $15.80 $23.00 2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80 $26.40 $8.00** $6.60 1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20** $30.20 $26.60 $64.60 * - Charismatic was a member of the mutuel field in all three KDFW pools in 1999.** - Favorite*** - Single pool wagering record
The GoalSince it is difficult enough to select the Derby winner on the first Saturday in May, the Future Wager can seem daunting at first. But with this wager, the goal is somewhat different. Rather than a quest to single out the one horse that will wear roses at Churchill Downs, the goal is to wager on horses that will start in the Kentucky Derby at a price considerably less than what is offered through the Future Wager. As they load in the gate on Derby day, if you are holding a ticket at 35-1 on a horse that is racing at 8-1 odds, then you have played the wager correctly, win or lose.
In order to focus on horses with the best opportunity to start in the Derby, stay away from horses with reasons not to run in the Derby, such as foreign horses and sprinter-types. With the overseas runners, we have to question their commitment to running. If they are only 50-50 to run, then you need to make sure you are getting a fair price. In the same way, if a classy two-year-old with possible distance limitations is only 50-50 to stretch out to a mile-and-a-quarter, then you have to factor that into the future wager price you are looking for. Not to mention, if the sprinter fails to stretch out to a mile-and-an-eighth in one of the Derby preps, you might be holding a worthless ticket long before Derby day.
For me, the perfect Future Wager selection is a native three-year-old that I am fully confident will stretch out to the Derby distance with connections committed to run in the Derby. The only variable this leaves out is talent, and that is the one I will wager on. I don't care to wager on whether an owner will decide to run in the Derby or some other race.
The mutuel field, Pool #1Any discussion of the Future Wager must involve the mutuel field, especially in Pool #1. The importance of the field in pool #1 should not be underestimated. Although many players dismiss the field because of the low odds of 5-2 to 4-1, the field in pool #1 has actually produced 42 out of the last 73 Derby starters (57.5%). This is significant because it means you are virtually guaranteed to get a good run for your money on Derby day.
Although War Emblem paid $43 on this own, this is not a fair comparison to holding a $7.60 ticket on the field. The 2002 Pool #1 field wager produced thirteen Derby starters each at $2.80-1. This is equivalent to wagering on 13 horses at 48-1. (If you bet $26 on the field at $2.80-1, your return would be $98.80. Similarly, if you bet all 13 field horses at 48.40-1, you would be spending $26 for a return of $98.80. So, in 2002 the end result was like getting an average of 48-1 on each field horse.)
Now 48-1 on War Emblem (20-1, Derby day) doesn't sound so impressive, but when you add Proud Citizen (23-1), Perfect Drift (7-1), Medaglia d'Oro (6-1), Essence of Dubai (10-1), Castle Gandolfo (14-1) and seven others all for the price of 48-1 -- then the value starts to add up.
Getting a good position on the field is important, as this can also provide the confidence to attack your personal favorites on Derby Day. In other words, the field doesn't have to win in order for you to make money Derby Day. For instance, with field #1 providing 13 of 18 runners in 2002, this would leave you plenty of money to pick your favorite among Saarland, Johannesburg, Came Home, Harlan's Holiday and Request for Parole and then wager with confidence.
TimingIt's true that the best time to bet the Future Wager is just before closing time at 6:30 pm EST on Sunday. That is the time the most information is available. Also, it is important to note that if you bet at 5 minutes to close, and there is enough money in the pool (usually $300,000 or more) the odds are not likely to change much, if at all. What this means is that your odds are basically 'fixed' as they are in Las Vegas. If you need to bet early, I would suggest waiting to see the results of Saturday's races. This is less important if you are not wagering on one of the horses running on Saturday.
OverlaysRemember that this is a 24 horse wager with only a 16% takeout. This means that unless the public correctly assesses the chances of all 24 betting interests, overlays will exist. With the difficulty of assessing the chances of young three-year-olds, the existence of overlays is almost assured. The trick is finding them.
Putting it all TogetherThe field is a good bet as long as it is 5-2 or higher. How will I play the wager? If I had $200 to spend, I might bet $100 to win on the field, and use the other $100 to split between my top two or three choices. Good luck!
Editor's Note: Mark Midland is the Future Wager's creator and Vice President of Marketing for Churchill Downs Incorporated.
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