ky derby bets

Welcome, we'll be starting momentarily. Andy Beyer: Welcome, everyone. Fire away with your questions. bestpal: Q: Enjoy your writings. Please "justify" the low fig given to Tapit in the Wood, Andy Beyer: The 98 is justified because the horse ran slow. A lot of people have questioned this number, and there were some ambiguities involved in the day, but the figure was consistent with the previous performances of all the top finishers. If Tapit wins the Derby, he'll have to improve his figure sharply. Triple_J: Q: Do you see Borrego improving off of the Arkansas Derby? Andy Beyer: Borrego seems to be this week's fashionable longshot, but I thought he just picked up the pieces after Smarty had set a fast pace. Borrego's never won a stakes. I think he'll be overbet. Dejazg: Q: In the Illinois Derby Song of the Sword recieved a 103 and then was bumpedin the lexingtonand recieved a 97,do youfeel this horse can be right there in this field. Andy Beyer: Both of those figures are too weak for him to win, even if he did have minor trouble. Besides, he never raced as a 2-year-old, and that makes him a total throwout based on Derby history. catthief: Q: Andy, Smarty has 2 straight figs over 105, is he ready to push thru to a new best? Andy Beyer: He's going to have a much, much tougher kind of trip than he had in those Arkansas races, so I question whether he can improve his numbers under those circumstances. Moreover, his pedigree does not inspire confidence that he will be more effective at 10 furlongs. saratoga1: Q: Do you still like the Birdstone/Read The Footnotes exacta you wrote about this winter? Andy Beyer: No. It's hard to like Birdstone off a bad race and a 5-week layoff. I expected that he'd come to Kentucky and run the kind of prep race that his stablemate did. Read the Footnotes, I still believe, may be the best member of this crop, based on his Florida form, but he too has had too long a layoff going into the Derby. But he's a forgotten horse this week and at 15 or 20 to 1 I've got to use him in my exactas and tris. catthief: Q: Andy, your thoughts on Lion heart staying up for 3rd not unlike catthief, indiancharlie, congaree, peacerules, freehouse? Andy Beyer: I think Lion Heart is one of the most talented horses in the field, but he really looks like a one-dimensional speedster with real stamina limitations. One-dimensional speedsters usually don't do too well in the Derby if they get the kind of pressure that he'll probably face from SmartyJones. But if the race develops favorably for him, he certainly has the talent to get in the tri. bgg: Q: I read your article on DRF.com and note your picks... do you have no fear of The Cliff`s edge "bouncing" after earning a fig some 20 points higher than the last? Andy Beyer: No, I don't. This is not a bad pattern for the Derby. War Emblem exploded in his final prep race and came back to repeat the big fig. Charismatic did the same. I think Zito wanted to take it easy with all of his 3-year-olds this winter and get them into peak form around now. rabidferret: Q: Action This Day had a bad back and got clipped in his last two races and now he looks to be decent odds. Think he`s got any chance? Andy Beyer: No. If he had run a big figure in the past (as Read the Footnotes did), one might try to make a case for his returning to top form. But Action's top form--a figure of 98--isn't nearly good enough. Stormy: Q: Hi Andy...I have sizeable Futures bets on both Smarty Jones and Pro Prado at odd of over 200-1....what should be my betting strategy for tomorrow? Exclude them, use them underneath in exotics or just steer clear....after handicapping the race, I still li Andy Beyer: Just root them home. Horseplayers make themselves crazy trying to fashion savers when they've got a live bet going, and usually the savers just cost them money. Advertisement sgvguy: Q: Andy,What do you think of Master David`s chances tomorrow.Who will have a better performance,Master David or Lionheart? Andy Beyer: I'd be against Master David. He's going to be a significant underlay because of the Frankel factor. He's never run a great number, and he had a fairly soft trip in the low-fig Wood and still couldn't beat Tapit. If you're looking at a matchup bet, though, there's always the chance that Lion Heart could collapse utterly and inferior horses could rally to beat him. uscponyman: Q: Was Limehouse showing in Blue Grass jockey error or was he outclassed Andy Beyer: I don't think Limehouse is much horse. He was life and death to win the Tampa Bay Derby; he's never run a fig better than 100. I couldn't begin to make a case for him to hit the board. chickenhead: Q: what do you think of Castledales chances? Andy Beyer: I guess you can never throw out Jeff Mullins entirely, but the Santa Anita Derby was a weak race, figwise and otherwise. madmax2004: Q: Is Pollard`s Vision Illinois Derby win and fig of 107 make him a contender? Andy Beyer: The figure was certainly solid, but he got an unpressured early pace against a rather weak field; there's going to be a lot more heat in this race. But if he's a giant price (which he may be), he's a horse you might use in the gimmicks because of the number. mock: Q: Do you think Friends Lake has a shot at winning, I`m worried about the layoff? Stivman: Q: I realize Preakness is 2 weeks away, but is Water Cannon the next Magic Wisner? Andy Beyer: No. Every time he runs in a race, everybody else goes off form and he wins with a bad number. I don't see that happening in the Preakness. shaf: Q: How will track conditions affect the outcome of the Kentucky Derby? Andy Beyer: I wish I knew, but I don't think anybody does. Most of the horses in the field have no off-track experience, so it's just a guess. Smarty Jones did win the Arkansas Derby in the mud, so he'll surely be able to handle it. Who_is_Chris_G__: Q: Do you think the swift closing fractions by Pro Prado in the Arkansas Derby are a good indication that he will be in the stretch mix? Andy Beyer: Well, he wasn't gaining a lot in the stretch. I thought both he and Borrego just picked up the pieces and I'm not crazy about either. But the history of the Derby has always been for plodding type horses to rally and get third or fourth place at a long price, so Pro Prado could conceivably be the one who does that. Xuxa: Q: Beyer figures have never done well on Derby Day - Why is this? Andy Beyer: Well, let's see: Empire Maker and Funny Cide had the top figures last year, and they ran 2-1. War Emblem had the standout number the year before and won at 20 to 1. Fusaichi Pegasus had the top fig. Charismatic had the co-top figure and won at 31 to 1. I just wish I'd bet our top figures religiously. donnyb: Q: Hi Mr. Beyer. Speaking from a purely objective point of view, is there a horse whose Beyer figures are cycling up in such a way that they look like they`ll peak tomorrow at 1 1/4 miles? I can`t find one. Andy Beyer: I don't know if anybody is "cycling" but Tapit is certainly the horse who seems to be moving toward a peak effort. He ran very well as a 2-year-old--he had a lot of trouble when he earned a 98 in the Laurel Futurity--and he hasn't been fit to deliver an optimal effort as a 3-year-old. Pokey: Q: Andy, has Imperialism exhibited the speed ( 100, 104, 101) to be a contender? Andy Beyer: He's a little bit behind the top horses; the California contingent just wasn't very strong this year. And even though he got into trouble in the SA Derby, I didn't think he was kicking strongly in the late going. Dingus: Q: It seems like a new paradigm for training to the derby is starting - Tapit and Lion Heart coming in off two starts, Friends Lake and Read the Footnotes off layoffs. Do you think this is the start of something or are these horses being ill prepared for a KIRISCLOWN2: Q: The Derby undercard.. is Azeri going to continue her successful comeback? Andy Beyer: I don't understand why Lukas is running her in this spot, at 7 furlongs, when she's never been a sprinter. She's going to have to cope with big, big speed of the sort she's never faced in her route races. I just don't know what to make of the situation. But I surely wouldn't single her at a short price in the pick four. theanvil: Q: How does Dosage Index come into play, and can we weed out any horses due to the Index? Andy Beyer: I find Dosage useless; every horse in this field qualifies. I think one is better off using common sense analysis of horses' pedigrees than referring to the Dosage numbers. Common sense would surely question the pedigrees of horses like SmartyJones and Read the Footnotes even though they have DIs of 3.40 and 2.00 respectively. Advertisement elp1953: Q: GP has a history of bad clockings are you sure the time was correct for the Florida Derby? Andy Beyer: I think so. The bad clockings at Gulf have mostly been at 7 furlongs and in the turf races (which everybody knows are absurd.) I think this was a case where the track was slow and the horses were slow. SANTANAJIMI: Q: Are you implying that the Mullins juice factor should be taken into play? Andy Beyer: Perish the thought! Manowar11: Q: Since the Beyer Figures first appeared in 1992, the Blue Grass winner has had the Top Last Beyer number 4 times: 2001-Millennium Wind 114, 1998-Halory Hunter 111 (tie with Indian Charlie), 1996-Skip Away 113, 1994-Holy Bull 113. All were beaten, while the Andy Beyer: The Blue Grass has often been an unreliable prep because of the strong Keeneland rail bias. Millennium Wind was a classic example of a horse who exploded with the aid of the bias and never duplicated that figure again. But the Keeneland track was relatively fair this spring, and The Cliff's Edge ran a legitimate race to earn his 111. steve_m: Q: Why do you still include Tapit in your top 5 picks when his speed figs are inferior? Andy Beyer: Because he missed a lot of training early this year and hasn't been totally fit for either of his starts this year. He's going to improve Saturday. Moreover, he's got the pedigree to be effective at 1 1/4 miles and a trainer with a history of doing the implausible. I can't pick him on top with those weak numbers, but I would not throw him out. TheNoseKnows: Q: Andy, do you think Smith has any chance of rating the Biancone colt from pressure on the outside? Andy Beyer: Lion Heart has only one way to run, and he's going to be flying. Smarty Jones will be stalking him from the outside. You have to think that the pace is going to be pretty quick. But strange things happen in Derbies to foil what we think the pace scenario is likely to be. If one speed horse has trouble coming out of the gate, or one of the pinheads decides to rate a speed horse, the complex of the race can change in a hurry. chief: Q: what are Andy`s top 4 picks and why? Andy Beyer: The Cliff's Edge, Read the Footnotes, Tapit, Lion Heart. My whole analysis is in my column in Saturday's DRF. RockHard9: Q: How will you be structuring your wagers on Derby day? Do you focus on the exotics? Andy Beyer: My main punches will be a pair of exactas with The Cliff's Edge hooked up with Read the Footnotes and Tapit. Then I'll probably play some superfectas with The Cliff's Edge on top of a bunch. bobster: Q: John Kimmel doubts Cliff jumping from a 90 to 111 -- "It doesn`t make sense." Besides, can he come from way back again? Andy Beyer: Kimmel said that because he questioned that the Florida Derby number could have been so weak. The Cliff's Edge did improve hugely, and this is something that happens a lot at this time of year. Horses frequently improve suddenly in April and go on to win the Derby. I'm not worried about his coming from far behind. With the likely pace in the Derby, that's probably the way the race will be won. DRF_WebGrp: Note: Andy's analysis appears for free on DRF.com - go to the Derby section>selections & analysis. landguy: Q: Some of your friends in Erie like the Pa. bred smarty..how big a price would you need to bet him to win? Andy Beyer: Smarty will probably be 5-1 or 6-1, and that's probably a square price for the one horse in the field who's never done anything wrong. I'm going against him because I think he's been dominating weak opposition, because his pedigree is suspect for 1 1/4 miles, and because he's going to face a tough pace scenario with Lion Heart ahead of him. Nevertheless, he's one of the 4 or 5 best horses in the field. lima_line: Q: who`s the best overlay in the derby? Andy Beyer: Read the Footnotes. He's run the best single race, from the speed-figure standpoint, and he showed plenty of guts in it too. He had a solid 2-year-old foundation and he's been training well coming into the Derby. But he's been a forgotten horse this week. toby: Q: if i steal $200 from my wife`s purse, what would your plays be, for the derby ? Andy Beyer: Go for glory. $80 exactas, 11-14 and 11-18, and $20 reverses. Andy Beyer: Thanks everybody for joining me. Have a great and profitable Derby! DRF_WebGrp: Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Kentucky Derby 130! DRF_WebGrp: Be sure to check out Handicapping 101! It's a new book by DRF's Brad Free. DRF_WebGrp: In case you missed the giant ad to your right, you can bet the Kentucky Derby at Youbet.com! Youbet.com - The Best of All! DRF_WebGrp: We will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat later this evening in the DRF.com Kentucky Derby section. DRF_WebGrp: In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all.