ncaa college basketball tournament bracket

Rules to Help You Win Your NCAA Tournament PoolExperts believe that more than 10 percent of Americans participate in March Madness “office pools.” So figuring for 300 million Americans, that means 30 million take part! Experts estimate that over 2.5 billion dollars is bet on March Madness each year (More than the Super Bowl) - with only 4% of that amount wagered "legally" in Nevada. Odds of picking a perfect bracket? 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1. That’s nine quintillion to one! How big is that number? It is a billion times as big as 9 billion! Think of it this way: if every man, woman, and child on the planet randomly filled out 10 million brackets each, the odds would be LESS than 1% that even one would have a perfect bracket.
How tall would every possible bracket be, on paper of normal thickness? That stack would reach from the earth’s surface to THE SUN over six thousand times! That stack would be 19.5 MILLION times the height of Mount Everest! Following are 11 bracket picking rules you shouldn’t break (note: unless otherwise noted, all stats span from 1985 - the year the tournament expanded to 64 teams - to present):
1st Round:
Be very selective picking any team below a #12 seed. #16 seeds are 0 for 88. #15 seeds are 4 for 88. #13 and #14 seeds are less than 19% combined. Don’t be shy about picking upsets when #12 through #9 seeds are involved Look especially hard at picking #12 seeds; they have won 11 of 24 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last six years. #9 seeds have a winning record vs. #8 seeds. 2nd Round:
Advance #1 seeds almost automatically – they win their first two games 86% of the time. Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One. They win almost half the time in Round Two (14 of 29 for #12 seeds; 17 of 35 for #10 seeds). Rarely pick a #13 seed or lower to win in Round Two. Only 9% of teams advancing past Round Two are seeded that low. Sweet 16:
Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. No reason to buck the math: 70% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that’s a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)! Advance no team lower than a #12 seed into the Elite 8. NOT ONE has ever advanced! Elite Eight:
Advance ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. Amazingly, exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 18 of the last 22 years. Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 88 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8. Final Four:
Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game. Not a single one has made it in the last 21 years. Championship Game:
Pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all. For 18 straight years the champion has been a 4 seed or higher! Also, don't miss:


Tips on Picking NCAA Tournament GamesFirst comes filling in your brackets. Office pool success is typically decided by two types of predictions: 1) Picking teams that will go deep into the tournament; 2) Picking a healthy amount of upsets in the early rounds. On the surface every #1 seed looks strong – that's why they are top seeds. But you're not going to win your pool without scoring with some surprises. Let's take a look at how #1 seeds have historically done: (All stats are since 1985, the year the Big Dance became a 64-team tournament. All results are straight-up with no consideration for point spread.)
Number of Final Four teams that were #1 seeds in a given year:
All 4: zero times3 of 4: three times2 of 4: 10 times1 of 4: eight times0 of 4: zero times
Very interesting .
. . never all four, but never none – one or two 18 of the last 21 years! Considering that picking upsets wins bracket pools, the numbers advice advancing only one #1 to the semifinals in your bracket.Which one? Key fact to consider: Of the 84 Final Four teams in our sample, 32 failed to meet ALL of the following conditions:
+ Made tourney the prior year.+ Had a preseason AP All-American.+ Beat opponents by an average of 10+ points a game.+ Got at least 35% of scoring from their frontcourt (forwards and centers).
Stunningly, of the 32 teams that failed to meet ALL the above conditions, only 5 made the Final Four!
But don't count on #1 seeds falling easily:
84-0 in the first round.72 of 84 (86%) make it to the Sweet 16.58 of 84 (69%) make it to the Elite 8!
Which leads to a key point – seemingly upset worthy #8 and #9 seeds inevitably must face a #1 in the second round, severely decreasing the likelihood of advancing as far as even the Sweet 16.
In the Elite 8, #1s are only 21-19 to win that next game to reach the Final Four when playing a #2 or #3 seeds. When playing any other seed lower than 3, the #1s have won 15 of 18 games to reach the Final Four.
Non-#1s
#2 seeds are 80-4 in the first round; but #2 are only 16-14 in the second round vs. #10 seeds.#3 seeds are 70-14 in the 1st round – but only 46% make it to the Sweet 16!#4 seeds are 67-17 in the 1st round – but only 44% make it to the Sweet 16!#13 and #14 seeds combined have won 31 first-round games, but are only 5-26 in the second round.
At least one #12 seed has beaten a #5 in the first round every year but one since 1988. Over the last five tournaments, #5 seeds are only 11-9 vs. #12 seeds.
Which leaves #10, #11, and #12 seeds as prime Cinderella candidates – when they win in the first round, these sleepers are shockingly almost 50% (41-44) to win in the second round and move on to the Sweet 16. Teams with automatic bids do significantly better than teams who are chosen for an at-large bid.
The Elite 8 is where the big upsets usually end. 27 times in this round big underdogs (defined by being 4 or more seeds lower) have faced favorites, winning only 4 of those 27 games.
Seeds of 84 Final Fours teams of the last 21 years:
#1: 36#2: 18#3: 11#4: 8#5: 4#6: 3#8: 3#11: 1
87% of Final Four teams come from the top 4 seeds!
Only once has a lower than #8 made the Final Four!
Of the last 21 champions, 12 were #1 seeds. Don't believe the myth that the Mid-Major conferences are closing the gap with the big boys – in the last 6 years, these conferences have:
+ sent less teams to the dance+ with a lower average seed+ won a lower percentage of games than in ANY other 5-year period of the last 21 years.
The gap between the super conferences and mid-Majors is widening.
Important game factors to keep in mind when picking winners:
Experience of both the players and the coach in the Big Dance - the more the better.How the team did on the road during the season – NCAA Tournament games are road games.Home-court fan advantage for certain teams in certain rounds.Ignore bench depth – over the last 6 years, Final Four teams have gotten over 80% of their points from their five starters.
Most likely upset in round one according to our network of experts: #13 Pacific over #4 Boston College.