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posted by malpais costa rica real estate : 3:35 PM
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USC comes into this matchup seeking an unprecedented 3rd straight national title, is on a 34-game winning streak, and ranks 4th in the nation in rushing, 5th in passing, 2nd in scoring, and 1st in total offense, by a stunning 69 yards per game, For all of the talent that the Texas defense can bring to the table, there has not been a better offensive team in the history of the college game than the current Trojan edition, and they simply spread the field too well to be stopped by anyone including the Longhorn'sWhat makes this group most difficult to defend is that it can beat you in so many different ways. The Trojans have the nation's fourth-ranked rushing offense and fifth-ranked passing attack. The Trojans operate out of a traditional pro-style offense, employing a two-back, two-receiver, one-tight end personnel grouping as its base package. Their offense is led by one time Heisman trophy winner, (also a finalist this year), QB Matt Leinart (3,450 passing yards& a 27/7 TD/INT ratio), is allowed the freedom most NFL QBs are given in terms of play calling and checking off at the line of scrimmage. To compliment the nation's 5th best passing attack, USC has at its disposal the NCAA's most courted athlete since Barry Sanders in this year's runaway Heisman winner Reggie Bush.There are no more superlatives that can be given to Bush, who not only averages an amazing 8.9 yards per rush, but is third on the team with 31 receptions. The Texas defense has no matchup for him, so expect Leinart and Bush to exploit this fundamental matchup disadvantage throughout the game. Bush's running counterpart, LenDale White, is a huge load (similar to Jerome Bettis) but with better speed who averages 6.7 yards per carry and has the brute strength to punish the Longhorns defense. USC will look to establish the ground game early on with both Bush and White, which will ultimately open up the deadly USC passing attack, so do not be concerned if we see a "conservative" style offense for the first few series. As the game progresses, USC will put in both backs at the same time, and Bush's prowess as a receiver gives the Longhorns just one more aspect to worry about in those situations.USC also has an advantage both situationally, and in the intangible department for this contest. Situationally, this game works out beautifully for USC, as they essentially get to play the national championship game on their home turf. That means fewer distractions, normal practice routine, and a business like approach. USC will not have to deal with the distractions of travel, a new setting, and the excitement of being essentially on a vacation. Considering that USC has played in the national championship games during its past three seasons prior to this year, they come into this contest with the experience and knowledge of what it takes to win in this setting. During those prior campaigns, Pete Carroll and his Trojans have gone up against outstanding squads Iowa, Michigan and Oklahoma and every one of those contests was no contest by halftime. They gave up one first half offensive touchdown in those three games combined, and only two offensive touchdowns until the middle of the fourth quarter. Last year, USC destroyed Oklahoma 55-19 because the much hyped Sooner defense had fed off a variety of mundane Big 12 offensive coordinators and QBs and were not prepared for Pete Carroll's NFL-type game planning and because Carroll knew full well that the Oklahoma passing game was rudimentary at best, and therefore, easy to defend. The bottom line is that the Trojan players and coaches have been through this setting many times in the past, and have not only risen to the occasion but might have possibly saved their best for last each season. The Longhorn history is much different, with only one point spread cover in the last five bowl appearances, none of them played at a pressure level anywhere near this one. By no means am I knocking the Longhorns they are very good and dangerous and come in with aundefeated record. Although I cannot bring myself to knock the Longhorns, I will knock their traditionally under-performing conference, as the Big 12 comes into this bowl game with a 6-18 ATS mark against the other elite conferences in bowls the past four seasons. Also, consider that during USC's 34 game winning streak, only 4 of their wins were by fewer then 7 points and guess what guys...the line is only a TD.What this all mean? Well that means if you bet USC in the past 4 years when the line is the same as the one in this matchup, you will cover this spread 89% of the time. Well I'm sold! Pete Carroll and USC improve to 4-0 ATS with a win and cover here.
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posted by malpais costa rica real estate : 1:46 PM
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