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Gamble On Money line

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Friday, November 20, 2009

nfl prop bet

BIG MONEY WAGERED ON SUPER BOWL PROP BETSLAS VEGAS - When it comes to the Super Bowl, every little detail warrants a wager.
Will the player who scores the first touchdown in Sunday's big game have a jersey number higher than 38? Who will catch a pass first: Arizona's Anquan Boldin or Pittsburgh's Hines Ward? Will Kurt Warner complete his first pass?
Many bettors watching the Super Bowl from Las Vegas this weekend will have money riding on much more than the outcome. Seemingly inane details such as the distance of the first field goal or whether the first score is a touchdown pass or run can be as important as the final score.
Proposition bets - prop bets, for short - let gamblers put money on just about every game situation possible and give bettors reasons to root during each play.
"From the coin toss until the final play of the game, there's some prop being decided," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Las Vegas Hilton's race and sports. "It might seem like a meaningless play, but here in Vegas there's some money riding on that 2-yard carry."
The bets can be downright zany. For example, the Hilton offers 9,999-1 odds on the Steelers scoring 4 points for the entire game against the Cardinals. Sure, it's possible, but only if Pittsburgh manages two safeties.
Other bets can involve other sports.
MGM Mirage Inc. Race and Sports Book Director Jay Rood said his company's casinos are offering a bet on which will be higher: the combined score after the first quarter, NBA centre Dwight Howard's total rebounds in the Orlando Magic-Toronto Raptors game, Detroit Pistons forward Rasheed Wallace's total points against the Cleveland Cavaliers or the combined number of holes shot under par by golfers Anthony Kim and Phil Mickelson during Sunday's final round of the FBR Open in Scottsdale, Ariz.
"What makes it good is it's something that they can track and know where they stand on it," Rood said.
Rood said prop bets accounted for 15 per cent to 20 per cent of all bets his books take on the Super Bowl. Kornegay said the percentage is higher at the Hilton, with half of all bets on the NFL title game coming on props.
Last year, $92.1 million was wagered on the Super Bowl in Nevada's 174 sports book.
Kornegay said the weird bets became wildly popular in the 1990s, during an 11-year run in which the NFC team won every Super Bowl.
In 1995, books expanded the proposition bets offered after the 49ers opened as 17.5-point favourites over the Chargers.
"The game was going to be so boring," Kornegay said. "We were trying to keep everybody's interest."
In 2003, Kornegay said, a casual bettor drove from Los Angeles and bet hundreds of dollars at 100-1 odds that the Carolina Panthers would score exactly 29 points against the New England Patriots - an unusual total.
"We actually got killed on that proposition - he didn't have any logic to it," said Kornegay, who said the bettor won a five-figure sum on the bet while Carolina lost the game, 32-29.
While prop bets might be a fun alternative for casual fans, serious sports gamblers pore over the numbers to look for edges in bets that casinos offer only once each year.
Professional gambler Teddy Scvransky said he has made more than 40 bets already on this year's Super Bowl, with prop bets outnumbering his other wagers tenfold.
"When you talk to someone, Joe Public, who says, 'Oh, well you're a professional bettor, who do you like - Arizona or Pittsburgh,' It's irrelevant," Scvransky, 41, said. "What I'm looking to do is out-think the linesmaker, outthink the betting public on these options."
Scvransky said prop bets let bettors deduce information about how the game will play out and make dozens of bets based on just a couple opinions, such as whether each team will pass or run on most plays.
Last year, Las Vegas casinos lost a record US$2.6 million when the New York Giants upset the New England Patriots.
Scvransky said he had bet the Patriots, but ended up having a winning day by betting more money on propositions.
Rood said it's not uncommon for serious bettors to bet $10,000 or more on specific circumstances or occurrences if they think they have an edge over the sports book.

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Monday, April 28, 2008

Gambling Terms

  • Run down - In sports gambling this is all the lines for an specific date, sport, time, etc। Run line - In baseball a spread used instead of the money line।
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  • When betting the money line in either baseball or hockey, you're putting dough on ... Most gambling experts will tell you that a professional who knows what ...

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Thursday, September 13, 2007

Gamble On Money line

Chances are, if you ask several different sports bettors what percentage they pay their bookmakers you'll get several different answers, and, chances are, most of those answers will not be ringing with confident finality. Even battle-worn veterans who flatly answer "Four-and-a-half percent" are really operating with a false understanding of what's going on. Contrary to what many veteran gamblers believe, almost no one actually pays 4.55% in bookmakers' commissions.
Many bettors are also operating under the fallacy that losers pay vigorish. The fact is - as explained below - losing bettors actually play for free. Only winners pay vigorish...And it's not 4.55 percent.
WHO PAYS HOW MUCH VIGORISH?
In sports betting when risking 11 to win 10, vigorish is deducted from winnings, not added to losses. (See text below.) Figures below show that only the bettor who wins exactly half his bets pays 4.55% in vigorish. Everyone else pays something different. The higher your winning percentage, the higher the percentage of vigorish you must pay. Successful sports bettors who win more than 55% of their bets actually pay more than 5% in vigorish. Whenever you win a bet when risking 11 to win 10 the bookmaker charges you 9.1% of your winnings.

W-L...VIG% W-L...VIG% W-L...VIG% W-L...VIG% 0-100...0.00% 25-75..2.27% 50-50..4.55% 75-25..6.82% 1-99...0.09% 26-74..2.36% 51-49..4.64% 76-24..6.91% 2-98...0.18% 27-73..2.45% 52-48..4.73% 77-23..7.00% 3-97...0.27% 28-72..2.55% 53-47..4.82% 78-22..7.09% 4-96...0.36% 29-71..2.64% 54-46..4.91% 79-21..7.18% 5-95...0.45% 30-70..2.73% 55-45..5.00% 80-20..7.27% 6-94...0.55% 31-69..2.82% 56-44..5.09% 81-19..7.36% 7-93...0.64% 32-68..2.91% 57-43..5.18% 82-18..7.45% 8-92...0.73% 33-67..3.00% 58-42..5.27% 83-17..7.55% 9-91...0.82% 34-66..3.09% 59-41..5.36% 84-16..7.64% 10-90..0.91% 35-65..3.18% 60-40..5.45% 85-15..7.73% 11-89..1.00% 36-64..3.27% 61-39..5.55% 86-14..7.82% 12-88..1.09% 37-63..3.36% 62-38..5.64% 87-13..7.91% 13-87..1.18% 38-62..3.45% 63-37..5.73% 88-12..8.00% 14-86..1.27% 39-61..3.55% 64-36..5.82% 89-11..8.09% 15-85..1.36% 40-60..3.64% 65-35..5.91% 90-10..8.18% 16-84..1.45% 41-59..3.73% 66-34..6.00% 91- 9...8.27% 17-83..1.55% 42-58..3.82% 67-33..6.09% 92- 8...8.36% 18-82..1.64% 43-57..3.91% 68-32..6.18% 93- 7...8.45% 19-81..1.73% 44-56..4.00% 69-31..6.27% 94- 6...8.55% 20-80..1.82% 45-55..4.09% 70-30..6.36% 95- 5...8.64% 21-79..1.91% 46-54..4.18% 71-29..6.45% 96- 4...8.73% 22-78..2.00% 47-53..4.27% 72-28..6.55% 97- 3...8.82% 23-77..2.09% 48-52..4.36% 73-27..6.64% 98- 2...8.91% 24-76..2.18% 49-51..4.45% 74-26..6.73% 99- 1...9.00% (Figures assume all bets are same size) 100-0...9.09%
The bookmaker's rather unique commission has no precise English definition, but the French word for it is "vignes." American gamblers have long since converted "vignes" to "vigorish," or to just plain "vig." Nevertheless, the bookmaker's fee is as much a commission as a broker's fee for handling a stock transaction or a Realtor's fee for handling a real estate deal. To account for this commission on standard pointspread wagers or over/under wagers, at traditional bookmakers for every $10 a bettor wants to win he is required to risk $11 - to "lay" $11. (Many internet bookmakers now charge less, allowing bettors to risk as little as 10.5 to win 10, but for our purposes here we will use '11-10' bets.) These 'eleven-ten' bets lead many gamblers to conclude that they are paying the bookmaker a commission of 10 percent if they lose a bet, but that they pay nothing if they win.
That's not correct. Here's how it actually works: Say two bettors each risk $110 with the same bookmaker on opposite sides of the same proposition, each bettor trying to win $100: The bookmaker receives a total of $220 from the two bettors. One bettor wins, one bettor loses, and the winner picks up a total of $210; - the $110 he put at risk, plus his $100 profit. That leaves the bookmaker with $10 gross profit as his vigorish on the deal. The bookmaker kept $10 of the $220 total amount risked.
That's a service charge of 4.55 percent. Had the two bettors each risked $110 against the other without using the services of the bookmaker, the winner would have walked away with $220 instead of $210. The bookmaker kept 4.55 percent of that $220. The amount risked by each bettor was $110; not 100 dollars.
($10 divided by $220 = .0455)
So the bookmaker does, indeed, charge 4.55 percent of the total amount put at risk by both bettors...But be sure to note which bettor paid both bettors' share of the vigorish. It was not the loser. The loser - since he lost the bet - would have lost whatever he put at risk, with or without the services of the bookmaker. The winner paid. The winnings, which would have been $110 without using the services of the bookmaker, were shorted by ten dollars - 9.1 percent.
($10 divided by $110 = .090909091)
The winner got back only 191 percent of the amount he put at risk.
($110 x 1.90909091 = $210)
This is also the way it works in virtually all other casino games, such as craps, roulette, baccarrat, blackjack, and even slot machines. When a loser loses, he loses what he puts at risk no matter whether the house charges zero vigorish or ten times the vigorish they actually do charge. In roulette, for example, someone betting on an 'even-money' proposition (red or black, high or low, odd or even) and losing, loses his bet, whatever he risked, period.
On the other hand, someone winning against an 'even-money' roulette proposition does not get paid the 'fair' odds of 10-to-9, but only 1-to-1. (There are 20 ways to lose an even-money bet at roulette and only 18 ways to win. The odds are 10-9 against you.) In all these table games, the winners pay the vigorish.
Of course, in a larger, more philosophical sense losers not only pay the vigorish but also the light bills of the casino and the salaries of the casino employees and all the other expenses of the casino. But we're not addressing philosophy here. We're addressing how the business of gambling actually 'works'. This is no place to play with words and semantics. Vigorish is deducted from winnings.
It is important to understand this point. You can be sure most bettors don't. In effect, the bookmaker becomes a partner of the winning bettor. Understanding this point is important when figuring the real cost of various sports betting opportunities, including parlays. (See our article, Parlays & Profit.) For example, laying 12-to-10 is a one-way ticket to the poorhouse. Laying 12 to win 10 costs the winner a whopping 16.67% of his winnings.
The illustration accompanying this text (above) shows precisely the cost of vigorish when dealing with 11-10 bets. Notice that since the winning bettor is always charged for the vigorish, the higher the percentage of bets won, the higher the percentage of vigorish paid. It might help if you picture what happens this way: If you lost all 100 of 100 bets, you would lose 100 percent of the amount put at risk - with or without the services of a bookmaker - but if you won all 100 of 100 bets, you would win only 91 percent of the total amount you were required to risk.
In those two extreme cases, the 0-100 loser would have played for 'free' while the 100-0 winner would have paid more than 9 percent in vigorish. Notice also that even though the bookmaker's commission is 4.55 percent, it is only the bettor who wins exactly half his bets who pays precisely 4.55 percent in vigorish. Everybody else pays something different. In order to break even you must win 53 percent of your bets - assuming the sizes of all your bets are exactly the same - and in order to win 53 percent of your bets, you must pay 4.82 percent in vigorish. Successful sports bettors who win more than 55 percent of their 11-10 bets typically pay more than 5 percent in vigorish.
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