Pro games bets NFL

Each sport has its own unique advantages from a handicapping aspect. The NFL is certainly no exception. Perhaps as much as 60% of all money bet on sports is bet on the NFL. This is true in spite of the fact that only 250+ games are played per year. (The total number of games played in all sports that have posted lines is over 10,000!)
What does this mean for the NFL gambler? It means the line-maker must take public opinion about the NFL into account more than any other sport.
Public opinion can be predictable. For one thing, the public tends to lean to favorites and overs. That results in posted lines that are - generally speaking - 'tilted' against favorites and against overs. Ask most any successful sports bettor and he will tell you that he bets more underdogs than favorites and more unders than overs. Underdogs and unders can be regarded as being a 'positive universe' because over time underdogs always cover more than 50% of the time and unders always beat overs more than 50% of the time.
Like all sports, we research our NFL database to try to isolate what we call “positive universes”. When we identify a bias, we try to look within it to find logical areas that can be eliminated from the group, thereby intensifying the bias. If we can subtract niches that are 50/50 or less, the winning percentage of the remaining universe increases, and often increases dramatically.
Like each sport, and for varying reasons, the NFL betting season changes as the season progresses. To demonstrate the thought process, we’ll use an example of over/under statistics...
From 1983 through 1999, the total number of games that went over the line has been 1652, while 1748 have gone under. That is a small bias of 51.41% under. With 3400 games, that is still a statistically valid %. But if you break it down by month, you find an interesting fact:
Month over under under % September 399 461 52.60 % October 418 473 53.09 % November 446 491 52.40 % December 401 370 47.99 %
The December aberration is caused by the public wanting to bet ‘unders’ in December because they think the weather will cause lower scores. The linemaker takes this into account. (It is not true, by the way.)
Thus, by taking out December, the number of games that went under during September, October and November is 1450 vs. 1298 that went over...52.77 % went under.
You would also quantify games by the line itself. In all September games, if the over/under line was greater than 40, the results were 226 overs and 296 unders, or 56.7% under. If the line was less than 40, the result was 170 overs and 165 unders, or 49.2% under. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that logic. And if we apply our projected scores to the data, we can further enhance the outcome. If the projected score is less than the line and the line is greater than 40, the outcome is now 102 overs and 156 unders, or 60.5% under. If our line is over the line and the line is greater than 40, the outcome is 113 overs and 123 unders, or 52.1% under. So we take out the under bets when our line is not leaning to the under...And we learn that our line has some validity, but it still should be used within the ‘positive universe’.
We also, as in all sports, rate the field itself for game and total values. The median field has a ‘4’ value for over/unders. In the example above, the results were 102 overs and 156 unders, or 60.5% under. If we ask our data for the outcomes if the field had a rating of greater than 4, the result is 31 overs and 35 unders, or 53.03 % under. By pulling that niche out of our ‘command’, we now have an outcome of 71 overs and 121 unders, or 63.0% under!
So now the ‘Command’ statement for this category would read, “In September, with an over/under line of greater than 40, a projected total of less than the line, and a field rating of less than 5, what were the results?"
MONTH O\U LINE PROJ TOTAL FIELD+ Sept >40 <0 <5 W\SPREAD L\SPREAD OVER UNDER 97 95 71 121 50.5% 49.5% 37.0% 63.0%
So while the ‘command’ held no relevance for the side bet, it did for the total.
Always keep in mind that the criteria must be logical, but while each sport has it’s own advantages and quirks, the method of research is the same. Find a large ‘positive universe’ and then ask relevant questions to try to eliminate low value categories within that field. Since football is scored in increments of 3, 7, 6, 8 and 2 points - in that order of regularity - certain pointspreads are much more significant than others. For example, a ½-point variance in a bookmaker’s posted pointspread from 3 is much more important than a ½-point variance from a pointspread of five. This is because football games are very likely to end with 3 points as a margin of victory, but not at all likely to end with a margin of victory of 5 points. About 14 percent of all NFL games end with a margin of victory of precisely 3 points, but only about one game in thirty will end with a pointspread of 5 points.
The ten most meaningful pointspreads are 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 17. (Not in that order, however.) Almost two-thirds of all NFL games can be expected to end with one or another of only those ten margins of victory. Consequently, a bookmaker needs a very good reason to move his line either off or onto one of those ten key numbers. When the bookmaker does move his line from or to one of those ten numbers, it's usually because he's having difficulty getting enough action on both sides of the bet.
To bettors, a line move off one of those numbers can easily present either an opportunity or a trap. An underdog getting 3½ points, for example, is a much better bargain than the same underdog getting only 3 points. That extra ½-point means their opponents must upgrade a field goal to a touchdown in order to cover. And by the same token, an underdog getting only 2½ points is a much higher risk than the same underdog getting 3 points. A ½-point move from a pointspread of 3 can be more important than many much larger moves. An underdog getting 9½ points instead of 7½ points is hardly a better deal at all. Since games rarely end with a margin of victory of exactly 8 or 9 points, there's simply not much difference between getting 9½ points or 7½ points. If an underdog fails to cover 7½ points, they're not likely to cover 9½ points, either. Likewise, a favorite giving away 7½ points is hardly a better bet than the same favorite giving away 9½ points. If a team wins by more than 7½ points, they will almost always win by more than 9½ points.
The significance of different size pointspreads does not increase on an evenly ascending scale. Imagine a very crazy staircase where some steps are much higher than others, and hardly any two steps are exactly the same size. Our natural instincts tell us to place a bet whenever the pointspread is a certain amount different from our own prediction - but that instinct is misleading because of the unique factors involved. For example, if our final forecast shows a 2½-point favorite should win by 4½ or 5 points, there may be a good argument for going with the bet, even though our prediction is only 2+ points away from the posted line. This is because there is a substantial likelihood that the favorite could win by either 3 or 4 points.
On the other hand, if we show a 7-point favorite should win by 9½ or 10 points, we may be well advised to pass the bet. Even though our prediction is further from this pointspread than in the first example, it's a much riskier proposition. Since games rarely end with 8- or 9-point margins of victory, the favorite would very likely have to beat your own forecast in order to cover the 7-point line.
The implications are obvious: It is important to take the time to shop. Shopping for lines is one of your most important advantages. Veteran professional sports bettor, Lem Banker, is a steadfast believer in making the effort to shop. He is tenacious about getting the best value for his money.
Banker offers some very good advice: "If you like a favorite that is minus 3½, shop around until you find a minus three... If the price isn't right, pass it up."
The importance of shopping was burned into my own brain ‘way back in 1983. I had just recorded the lines at Caesars Palace and walked across the street to the Barbary Coast in order to check their lines.
I was interested in the game between the New York Jets and the then-Baltimore Colts - among other games - so the line at Caesars Palace of Jets minus 3½ was still fresh in my mind.
The Barbary's line on that same game was Jets minus 4, and while I was at the Barbary I overheard a fellow lay $3,300 to win $3,000 on the Jets, giving up the 4 points.
Had the man bothered to walk across the street he would have had to give up only 3½ points.
You guessed it: The Jets won, 10-6. The bettor pushed. His failure to walk across the street cost him $3,000.....And he is is still probably blissfully unaware of it.
In Las Vegas, shopping pays off because of competition between sports books. In order to attract customers some sports books offer worthwhile bargains on certain days or during certain hours of the day. One such bargain is to give the customer an extra half-point. If Team A is minus 6, for example, a bettor is allowed to bet on them at minus 5½, or to bet against them at plus 6½. (The too-important 3-point lines are usually excluded from this offer.) Another bargain often available is, instead of having to lay 110, the bettor is required to lay only 108, or even 105. There are also special rates on special bets that can give you an added value, such as 3-bet parlays that win 6½-to-1 rather than 6-to-1, or 2-bet parlays that pay 14-to-5 rather than 13-to-five.
On-line sportbooks can offer better prices than brick-and-mortar sportbooks because of the differences in overhead costs. Competition is heating up on the Internet. On-line sportbooks don't have the expense of lavish floor shows or great restaurants or opulent surroundings; they must come up with other ways to attract business. Cutting prices always works.
The importance of shopping reveals itself to us over and over again. With the picks from our newsletter, PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER Newsletter, in Week 4 of the 1998 NFL season, some of our subscribers went 8-5, but at least one subscriber went 4-6-3 with those very same picks! ("Officially," against the lines published in the newsletter at the time of publication, the picks went 6-6-1.) Most weeks, the differences are not nearly that pronounced, but in that particular week, shopping for the best lines made all the difference between having a winning weekend or a losing weekend.
Because certain scores are much more likely to occur than others, your forecasts of scores are extremely important in relation to your predicted pointspreads. If your prediction is for a team to score, say, 26 points, there is virtually no chance of your forecast coming true. Teams just don't score 26 points. If your forecasting method shows a final score of, say, 26-18, the chances of your being exactly right are about the same as Pat Robertson's chances of being elected President. Once again, the reason is the way in which football is scored. In your lifetime, for example, there is not likely to be a pro football game that ends with a score of 26-18.
Whatever your forecast, by whatever system you use, it's helpful if that forecast is adjusted to a score that is likely to really happen. Only 13 different numbers make up more than two-thirds of all final scores in pro football: 7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, 31. These 13 numbers, plus the group "41 & more", can be used as the only numbers in your final forecast; - that is, even though your forecast is for a score of, say, 26-18, your prediction is best 'translated' into a score with a reasonable chance of actually occurring. In the case of 26-18, you'd be better off 'translating' such a forecast to approriate numbers that are more apt to occur. (27-17, or 24-17, or 28-20, or perhaps 24-20.) By translating your final forecasts into these key scores, you will automatically be adjusting your predicted margins of victory into realistic पोइन्त्स्प्रेअद्स्