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I've heard it said that that Oral Roberts (20-11) might be the best team ever seeded No. 16 in the NCAA Tournament and that the Golden Eagles have the best chance in recent memory to rewrite the history books against a vulnerable No. 1 in Memphis. While Oral Roberts might be better than the Monmouths and Belmonts of the college basketball world, I have to believe it would take a miracle to get Oral Roberts past the Tigers and into the second round.
Still, there will be upsets, a few big ones included among them. But it seems to me the point-spreads are a bit smaller than in previous years, an indication perhaps that the smaller conferences have decreased the gap between themselves and the big dogs.
Of the 32 first round contests, just eight feature double-digit favorites, with four of those being No. 1 vs No. 16 match-ups. Everybody scoffed at the notion of Air Force getting a berth, but the line says Illinois is only 8 points better. Gonzaga, with a 27-3 record and a 10 RPI, has been made a favorite of just 5 points against Xavier (21-10 RPI 77), the surprise winner of the A-10 Tournament. North Carolina of the mighty ACC is only an 11or12-point choice over Murray State and when you have to ask yourself 'Where the hell is Murray State?' you would think the line would be at least 20 points.
So maybe there aren't as many big favorites as in previous years, but there will still be an underdog or two who screw up more than a few office pools.
Here's a look at a few that might be primed for an upset and worthy of a wager on the moneyline or a pick in the office pool.
Iona College - The 13th seeded Gaels are 7-point underdogs in this first-round match-up against LSU, but they are no stranger to the tournament, having represented the MAAC on three previous occasions over the past eight years.
The Gaels finished 23-7 with an RPI of 64 and were clearly the class of the MAAC this season However, at times they played rather uninspired basketball during much of the conference season and, as a result, finished second behind Manhattan. The Gaels, led by Steve Burtt and his 25 ppg., defeated Iowa State this year in Iowa and stayed with Kentucky before losing, 73-67, in Louisville.
LSU, with an RPI of 13, was the regular season champ in the SEC. The Tigers did drop regular season games to Houston and Northern Iowa, giving the Gaels, who have performed well in previous tournament appearances, a glimmer of hope.
Bucknell - The 9th seeded Bison cannot be considered much of a Cinderella anymore. They do play in the woeful Patriot League, but rolled through the regular season with a perfect 14-0 conference mark and they finished at 26-4 with an RPI of 42. Non-conference wins for Bucknell include games against Big East champ Syracuse, St. Joseph's and Depaul, not to mention that they defeated Kansas in first-round action last year.
They are a 4.5 point underdog to Arkansas, 22-9 RPI 45, one of the teams that found its way off of the bubble and into the tournament in the last week of the season.
Bradley - The Braves (20-10, RPI 33) are playing their best basketball of the season, going 11-3 down the stretch to land in the tournament. They are a 7-point underdog to Kansas (25-7, RPI 20). The all underclass Jayhawk line-up could be vulnerable to a team playing with house money, but Kansas will not be taking this game lightly after last year's opening-round loss at the hands of Bucknell. This is a huge opportunity for the Missouri Valley Conference to show the NCAA selection committee was correct in rewarding the conference with four bids.
In fact, if the selection committee knows what its doing, Northern Iowa +4 against Georgetown and Southern Illinois +4 against West Virginia might prove to be live dogs as well.
Xavier - Why not? The Musketeers are playing well when it counts, having won four games in four days to win the A-10 Tournament and earn a ticket to the dance. They face a 3rd seeded Gonzaga team that barely escaped as West Coast Conference Tournament champs last week, though the Zags didn't have much to play for as they were assured an NCAA bid and a good seed. Still, Gonzaga has looked pretty ordinary as of late and the Zags haven't enjoyed some of their past NCAA tournament success since people started expecting them to win.
winsWhile quarterback Vince Young (1,849 yards passing, 12 touchdowns, 11 interceptions; 1,079 yards rushing and 14 TDs) is one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy at 6/1 and the most exciting player in America not named Reggie Bush, the Longhorns (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS in 2004) will have to replace one of the nation’s top running backs in Cedric Benson (1,845 yards and 19 touchdowns). How Benson’s departure impacts Young will determine just how competitive Texas is this season. Following his amazing Rose Bowl performance, defenses facing Young this year were no doubt taking notes and will be stacking the line knowing he’s much more dangerous with his legs.In fact, there is a prop bet available on whether or not Young will run for 1,000 yards again. Will they be a national championship contender or pretender? Hard to say, especially considering the team also lost one of the country’s best defensive players in linebacker Derrick Johnson. Head coach Mack Brown’s squads have a history of underperforming when they get a lot of hype, going back to his days at North Carolina . This year should be no different, especially since Oklahoma is re-loading in the same Big 12 South Division with much deadlier weapons than the Longhorns.
Boston College Eagles125/1 to win BCS title game, 12/1 to win ACC, O/U 6.5 winsIs this Eagles team really as good as their 9-3 record (6-5 ATS) in 2004? If they were, they would have secured a spot in the BCS and matched up with Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. Instead, BC was shocked at home by Syracuse 43-17 in the regular-season finale and had the pleasure of beating North Carolina 37-24 in the Continental Tire Bowl. The Eagles have left the Big East for a much tougher ACC, which means conference games against bottom-dwellers like Temple and Rutgers will be replaced with more quality opponents like Wake Forest (who finished 4-7 last year but has beaten BC each of the past two seasons). 2003 starting quarterback Quinton Porter will get the call again in 2005 after red-shirting following the emergence of Paul Peterson in 2004. Porter’s performance will likely be the key to how well the Eagles adjust to life in the ACC.
LSU Tigers12/1 to win BCS title game, 7/4 to win SEC, O/U 9.5 winsThe Tigers (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) enter 2005 with overwhelming expectations that might simply be too high for new coach Les Miles to reach. Miles comes over from Oklahoma State while former head coach Nick Saban was one of the most respected minds in the college game and recruited some of the best classes in school history before he bolted for the NFL’s Miami Dolphins. Of course, those classes have “potential” written all over them and are just that until they can break through and prove themselves. LSU scored 22 points or more in all nine of their regular-season wins last season, but four of those victories were decided by four points or less. Sophomore JaMarcus Russell (1,053 yards, 9 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) replaces Marcus Randall at quarterback for the Tigers and will need to show the same poise as his predecessor if they are to win the close games and compete for a spot atop the SEC’s Western Division.
California Golden Bears50/1 to win BCS title game, O/U 8.5 winsThe Golden Bears (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) were arguably the second-best team in the country last year due to the fact that they played top-ranked Southern Cal better than anybody else in a tough 23-17 loss. No respect for the Pac-10 ultimately cost Cal a BCS Rose Bowl berth, and the team played uninspired in a 45-31 loss to Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. Of course that was last season, and a new season brings new hope, right? Not so fast. The Bears lost star quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the Green Bay Packers and 2,000-yard rusher J.J. Arrington to the Arizona Cardinals, while four of the team’s top five receivers have also moved on. Head coach Jeff Tedford is well-respected for bringing in the right pieces to fit his high-octane offense, but this year might be his most challenging yet. The main benefit he has though is knowing the Trojans are again the only real competition in what should be an even weaker league race. 'It's back Paddy. C'mon, get the beers, the hot dogs and whatever else fat Americans eat when they're at a game'. 'What's back?' the boss demanded. 'American Football,' we gleefully replied. A tirade of abuse followed and we were happy to shut up. Fair enough, the boss isn't a fan of America's much hyped game. Compounded by the fact it was only Monday morning and we were drunk, he wasn't happy with our childish antics. Now that the start of the NFL season is on the horizon, we're allowed get a little bit excited. It kicks off tonight with Superbowl champions, the Indianapolis Colts, taking on the New Orleans Saints and we're praying for a great season! Fri 1.30am SS1It would be a massive understatement to say Portugal are underdogs in the Rugby World Cup, they are complete no-hopers. We're not being harsh, we're being realistic. However they are confident they’ll be able to leave the tournament with some semblance of respectability intact. Portuguese captain Vasco Uva is hoping he can lead his side to victory against fellow minnows Romania. "We are ambitious and want to beat Romania. It will be difficult - but that is our objective." Ok, it's been a major achievement for an amateur side to qualify for the World Cup, but if you back You'd be forgiven for thinking Australian winger Lote Tuqiri was half-Irish, besides being a great rugby player, he also enjoys a pint. But the former Rugby League star has been slapped with a midnight curfew by the Australian Rugby Union after a late-night drinking session. The 6-foot-4 Cinderella isn't bothered by the punishment and he knows that once his job is done, there will be plenty of time for partying. "No one's going to go out and party during the World Cup, this is what we aim for four years." If you back Tuqiri to be Top
Still, there will be upsets, a few big ones included among them. But it seems to me the point-spreads are a bit smaller than in previous years, an indication perhaps that the smaller conferences have decreased the gap between themselves and the big dogs.
Of the 32 first round contests, just eight feature double-digit favorites, with four of those being No. 1 vs No. 16 match-ups. Everybody scoffed at the notion of Air Force getting a berth, but the line says Illinois is only 8 points better. Gonzaga, with a 27-3 record and a 10 RPI, has been made a favorite of just 5 points against Xavier (21-10 RPI 77), the surprise winner of the A-10 Tournament. North Carolina of the mighty ACC is only an 11or12-point choice over Murray State and when you have to ask yourself 'Where the hell is Murray State?' you would think the line would be at least 20 points.
So maybe there aren't as many big favorites as in previous years, but there will still be an underdog or two who screw up more than a few office pools.
Here's a look at a few that might be primed for an upset and worthy of a wager on the moneyline or a pick in the office pool.
Iona College - The 13th seeded Gaels are 7-point underdogs in this first-round match-up against LSU, but they are no stranger to the tournament, having represented the MAAC on three previous occasions over the past eight years.
The Gaels finished 23-7 with an RPI of 64 and were clearly the class of the MAAC this season However, at times they played rather uninspired basketball during much of the conference season and, as a result, finished second behind Manhattan. The Gaels, led by Steve Burtt and his 25 ppg., defeated Iowa State this year in Iowa and stayed with Kentucky before losing, 73-67, in Louisville.
LSU, with an RPI of 13, was the regular season champ in the SEC. The Tigers did drop regular season games to Houston and Northern Iowa, giving the Gaels, who have performed well in previous tournament appearances, a glimmer of hope.
Bucknell - The 9th seeded Bison cannot be considered much of a Cinderella anymore. They do play in the woeful Patriot League, but rolled through the regular season with a perfect 14-0 conference mark and they finished at 26-4 with an RPI of 42. Non-conference wins for Bucknell include games against Big East champ Syracuse, St. Joseph's and Depaul, not to mention that they defeated Kansas in first-round action last year.
They are a 4.5 point underdog to Arkansas, 22-9 RPI 45, one of the teams that found its way off of the bubble and into the tournament in the last week of the season.
Bradley - The Braves (20-10, RPI 33) are playing their best basketball of the season, going 11-3 down the stretch to land in the tournament. They are a 7-point underdog to Kansas (25-7, RPI 20). The all underclass Jayhawk line-up could be vulnerable to a team playing with house money, but Kansas will not be taking this game lightly after last year's opening-round loss at the hands of Bucknell. This is a huge opportunity for the Missouri Valley Conference to show the NCAA selection committee was correct in rewarding the conference with four bids.
In fact, if the selection committee knows what its doing, Northern Iowa +4 against Georgetown and Southern Illinois +4 against West Virginia might prove to be live dogs as well.
Xavier - Why not? The Musketeers are playing well when it counts, having won four games in four days to win the A-10 Tournament and earn a ticket to the dance. They face a 3rd seeded Gonzaga team that barely escaped as West Coast Conference Tournament champs last week, though the Zags didn't have much to play for as they were assured an NCAA bid and a good seed. Still, Gonzaga has looked pretty ordinary as of late and the Zags haven't enjoyed some of their past NCAA tournament success since people started expecting them to win.
winsWhile quarterback Vince Young (1,849 yards passing, 12 touchdowns, 11 interceptions; 1,079 yards rushing and 14 TDs) is one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy at 6/1 and the most exciting player in America not named Reggie Bush, the Longhorns (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS in 2004) will have to replace one of the nation’s top running backs in Cedric Benson (1,845 yards and 19 touchdowns). How Benson’s departure impacts Young will determine just how competitive Texas is this season. Following his amazing Rose Bowl performance, defenses facing Young this year were no doubt taking notes and will be stacking the line knowing he’s much more dangerous with his legs.In fact, there is a prop bet available on whether or not Young will run for 1,000 yards again. Will they be a national championship contender or pretender? Hard to say, especially considering the team also lost one of the country’s best defensive players in linebacker Derrick Johnson. Head coach Mack Brown’s squads have a history of underperforming when they get a lot of hype, going back to his days at North Carolina . This year should be no different, especially since Oklahoma is re-loading in the same Big 12 South Division with much deadlier weapons than the Longhorns.
Boston College Eagles125/1 to win BCS title game, 12/1 to win ACC, O/U 6.5 winsIs this Eagles team really as good as their 9-3 record (6-5 ATS) in 2004? If they were, they would have secured a spot in the BCS and matched up with Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. Instead, BC was shocked at home by Syracuse 43-17 in the regular-season finale and had the pleasure of beating North Carolina 37-24 in the Continental Tire Bowl. The Eagles have left the Big East for a much tougher ACC, which means conference games against bottom-dwellers like Temple and Rutgers will be replaced with more quality opponents like Wake Forest (who finished 4-7 last year but has beaten BC each of the past two seasons). 2003 starting quarterback Quinton Porter will get the call again in 2005 after red-shirting following the emergence of Paul Peterson in 2004. Porter’s performance will likely be the key to how well the Eagles adjust to life in the ACC.
LSU Tigers12/1 to win BCS title game, 7/4 to win SEC, O/U 9.5 winsThe Tigers (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) enter 2005 with overwhelming expectations that might simply be too high for new coach Les Miles to reach. Miles comes over from Oklahoma State while former head coach Nick Saban was one of the most respected minds in the college game and recruited some of the best classes in school history before he bolted for the NFL’s Miami Dolphins. Of course, those classes have “potential” written all over them and are just that until they can break through and prove themselves. LSU scored 22 points or more in all nine of their regular-season wins last season, but four of those victories were decided by four points or less. Sophomore JaMarcus Russell (1,053 yards, 9 touchdowns, 4 interceptions) replaces Marcus Randall at quarterback for the Tigers and will need to show the same poise as his predecessor if they are to win the close games and compete for a spot atop the SEC’s Western Division.
California Golden Bears50/1 to win BCS title game, O/U 8.5 winsThe Golden Bears (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) were arguably the second-best team in the country last year due to the fact that they played top-ranked Southern Cal better than anybody else in a tough 23-17 loss. No respect for the Pac-10 ultimately cost Cal a BCS Rose Bowl berth, and the team played uninspired in a 45-31 loss to Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. Of course that was last season, and a new season brings new hope, right? Not so fast. The Bears lost star quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the Green Bay Packers and 2,000-yard rusher J.J. Arrington to the Arizona Cardinals, while four of the team’s top five receivers have also moved on. Head coach Jeff Tedford is well-respected for bringing in the right pieces to fit his high-octane offense, but this year might be his most challenging yet. The main benefit he has though is knowing the Trojans are again the only real competition in what should be an even weaker league race. 'It's back Paddy. C'mon, get the beers, the hot dogs and whatever else fat Americans eat when they're at a game'. 'What's back?' the boss demanded. 'American Football,' we gleefully replied. A tirade of abuse followed and we were happy to shut up. Fair enough, the boss isn't a fan of America's much hyped game. Compounded by the fact it was only Monday morning and we were drunk, he wasn't happy with our childish antics. Now that the start of the NFL season is on the horizon, we're allowed get a little bit excited. It kicks off tonight with Superbowl champions, the Indianapolis Colts, taking on the New Orleans Saints and we're praying for a great season! Fri 1.30am SS1It would be a massive understatement to say Portugal are underdogs in the Rugby World Cup, they are complete no-hopers. We're not being harsh, we're being realistic. However they are confident they’ll be able to leave the tournament with some semblance of respectability intact. Portuguese captain Vasco Uva is hoping he can lead his side to victory against fellow minnows Romania. "We are ambitious and want to beat Romania. It will be difficult - but that is our objective." Ok, it's been a major achievement for an amateur side to qualify for the World Cup, but if you back You'd be forgiven for thinking Australian winger Lote Tuqiri was half-Irish, besides being a great rugby player, he also enjoys a pint. But the former Rugby League star has been slapped with a midnight curfew by the Australian Rugby Union after a late-night drinking session. The 6-foot-4 Cinderella isn't bothered by the punishment and he knows that once his job is done, there will be plenty of time for partying. "No one's going to go out and party during the World Cup, this is what we aim for four years." If you back Tuqiri to be Top
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