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In Las Vegas, one phrase sums it up: "Football is king." While the other sports have their backers and bettors, it is the National Football League on Sunday, preceded by NCAA Division 1-A football games on Saturday, which are responsible for the majority of the betting action in the legal sportsbooks of Las Vegas.
In fact, the latest figures for fiscal 1999 show that $938.3 million, almost $1 billion was bet on the NFL (all figures listed the Las Vegas Review-Journal, September 12, 1999), which accounted for nearly 41% of all wagers placed in Nevada’s sportsbooks. (Basketball represented 22.85%, Baseball 27.30%, parlay cards 3.02%, other 5.97%, pari-mutuel 0.26%.)
The total handle (gross bet) on football has surpassed $900 million in each of the last three fiscal years. These figures don’t include money bet on parlay cards, which are figured into a separate category, but are mostly football-oriented. In fiscal 1999, close to 24% of sportsbooks’ earnings were derived from these parlay cards, which was three times more than they made from any other area.
Truly, football is king. The eternal question remains: how do you win?
First of all, it is important to remember that there is a grand equalizer in football called the point-spread or simply, the line. In almost every game, there is a favorite and an underdog, with the difference between them fixed at a number that the Las Vegas oddsmakers have determined. This number, like all sports betting odds, is flexible. That is important to remember.
As more money is bet on one side or the other, favorite or underdog, the bookmakers adjust the odds accordingly. One example might be if the Green Bay Packers are favored over the Detroit Lions by 4 points and significantly more money is bet on Green Bay than Detroit, then the bookmakers will adjust the line to Green Bay minus 4.5 or 5 points.
What this translates to in the real world, is that if you want to back Green Bay and bet them, they not only have to win the game, but they also must win by 6 or more points when they are favored by 5. If you want to bet on their opponent, Detroit, you must bank that Detroit will either win the game outright, or lose by no more than 4 points. If the game were to end with the difference in Green Bay’s victory at exactly 5 points, with the line or spread at 5, then that is called a push, and you get a refund without a win or a loss.
This scenario leads to the unusual situation that Green Bay can win the game by a field goal of 3 points, and the win goes into the official standings and record books. Their fans are delighted. But, in Las Vegas and the rest of the football-betting world, the Packers lost by not "covering the spread," or "beating the line," with their 3-point victory.
In the betting world of Las Vegas, it counts only if you get a return trip to the betting window to cash your ticket. The oddsmakers are all too well aware of the American public’s adoration of winners. Everybody loves a winner! And everybody loves to bet on the winners.
Knowing this, they usually saddle the most popular teams with added points. These are called "public teams" represented by the Dallas Cowboys, the San Francisco 49s, and the Green Bay Packers. In college, you will find Notre Dame, Michigan, Florida State, Nebraska, Ohio State, and UCLA among the choices.
There are also the one-year wonders; teams which are embraced and climb in popularity for a short spurt, only to fall back down to earth as the season ends. These Cinderellas attract attention and betting action usually due to a personality or team performance, but when the run is over, they return to national obscurity.
For recreational betting purposes, there’s nothing like betting on your team to win the game. But a reasonable question to ask yourself: Do I honestly believe they have a chance to beat the spread? Using our Green Bay/Detroit match-up, you might think on the surface that Green Bay is the superior team and will surely beat the Lions by a touchdown.
But, what do you know about their performances the past few weeks? Are there any significant injuries? Is one team coming off a bye week (where they did not play), or heading into one? Have they met in the same season previously? How have they played each other the past few years?
What about one team’s offense versus the others defense? Have you considered individual match-ups of running back versus linebackers; wide receivers versus cornerbacks and safeties, coaches versus each other? Is one team overachieving while the other one in a rebuilding mode? Have you checked the weather report for the game site? Does one team play at home on artificial turf and their opponent play on natural grass?
How is the internal chemistry on each team? Is finger-pointing going on in the locker room? Has one team given up for the year, playing out the string, while the other is in a big push for the playoffs? Or, conversely, has a team with a bad start to the season started to jell, possibly looking ahead to start a trend for the following season? Are key players willing to work harder knowing that their contracts are up for renewal?
Does one team have a long history of beating up on the other? Is one team playing to avenge a particularly humiliating defeat the prior year? If it is a college game, is this a nationally broadcast game, where all eyes will be watching? Is it a homecoming game? Is it a traditional rivalry? Has one of the teams been dissing the other publicly, providing all sorts of locker room material?
The answer to all these questions, along with many others, need to be addressed if you truly wish to delve deeper and handicap the game. Here in Las Vegas, the professionals who have been placing bets on football will tell you the big secret: It is very difficult to win on a regular basis. In order to do so, without counting on the element of luck to pull you through on a regular basis, you need to pay attention to some of the finer points or the subtleties of the game.
What appears on the surface to be a one-sided contest, when examined in fine detail, might turn out to be an entirely different ball game. There is another point to consider as well: If you bet on the favorite, you must expect them to win the game and cover the spread. If you bet on the underdog, you have two chances to win: they can win the game outright, OR they can lose the game, but keep it closer than the line to cover the game in that way.
In other words, often times there is more value in betting the underdog than the favorite। Some of these teams might be more like mongrels than purebreds. They may look and act funny, and in some cases they may be downright ugly, but you might come to love them for different reasons.