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# posted by semper fidelis : 1:39 PM  0 comments

Pro football betting

The Bears are feeding off their role as underdogs in the Super Bowl, and they have no issues proving they belong here and can win the biggest game of the year. "Anytime you're in an underdog role, you're that much more intense and focused and out for respect," said Chicago QB Rex Grossman, who may go down as the most scrutinized player in Super Bowl history due to his erratic play.AFC teams may have dominated their NFC counterparts during the regular season with a 40-24 mark, but the Bears went 2-2, including a tough 17-13 loss at New England. While Grossman is at an obvious disadvantage against Indy counterpart Peyton Manning, insiders believe the key to this game will simply be turnovers. In Chicago's three losses this season, Grossman turned the ball over 12 times, with three interceptions and one fumble in each of those games. If he limits his turnovers and the Bears play up to their potential on defense and special teams, a straight-up win is not only possible, it's likely. Teams without a scoring defense ranked in the Top 8 at the end of the regular season have never won the Super Bowl. Indy ranked 23rd - allowing 22.5 points per game - while Chicago finished third. Even though Indy safety Bob Sanders has improved the team's run defense dramatically when he has played, the team does not play an opportunistic style and force many turnovers, creating just 26 compared to 44 for the Bears. Some experts - along with the betting public - feel Manning finally has the monkey off his back of "failing to win the big game" and will thrive on the big stage in his first opportunity to win the Super Bowl. If anybody is due to win a championship, it's him. He never beat archrival Florida in college and has been linked to former Miami QB Dan Marino because of his statistical dominance yet lack of a title. Ironically, Manning may have more pressure on him to win this game than Grossman, but the public doesn't seem too worried. No touchdowns have been scored in the first quarter of the last five Super Bowls, and just 22 points total have been scored in the last seven combined. Nerves have definitely played a huge role early on as the two teams feel each other out offensively and defensively. (Consider betting the UNDER in the first quarter and first half). Chicago was a much better road team during the regular season, going 7-1 SU away from Soldier Field. Indy was 4-4, snapping a four-game road skid with an impressive 15-6 victory at Baltimore in the divisional round of the playoffs. The grass surface in Miami also favors the Bears because the Colts offense is much more explosive on the fast track of turf. The Colts crushed the Bears 41-10 at Soldier Field during the 2004 regular season, the last meeting between the teams. However, Chicago LB Brian Urlacher missed that game with a leg injury and former Indy RB Edgerrin James ran for 204 yards. Urlacher is extra motivated to go up against Manning in this one after sitting out the last game. "They beat us so bad, I'm not sure I would have made a huge difference," Urlacher said. "(Manning is) a great challenge for our defense and our team, on his way to being, numbers-wise at least, the best quarterback in the history of the NFL." The team that has the most rushing attempts in the Super Bowl has won 38 of the 40 games. The Bears had 46 rushing attempts compared to just 12 for the Saints in the NFC Championship. Indy had a 30-24 edge in attempts against the Patriots in the AFC Championship and also had advantages against the Chiefs and Ravens earlier in the playoffs. In addition, weather could be a factor on Sunday, as there is a 30 percent chance of rain in Miami. That could affect the passing and kicking games and force teams to put more of an emphasis on the running game. Both teams play a similar Cover Two defensive scheme taught by Indy head coach Tony Dungy to Chicago's Lovie Smith in their days with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Some experts believe Manning will be able to pick apart the Bears because he goes up against the same type of defense everyday in practice. However, New Orleans QB Drew Brees said Monday on NFL Radio that Chicago played man-to-man 80-90 percent of the time against the Saints, who led the league in total offense this season. This could be a huge factor since the Patriots play man-to-man and have been very effective against the Colts over the years. The only key injury in the Super Bowl is Indy starting CB Nick Harper, the team's best cover man. Harper remains questionable with an ankle injury and is NOT expected to play since his foot is still in a boot, forcing him to miss practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Look for the Bears to test his replacement - either Marlin Jackson or Kelvin Hayden - early in the game with Berrian, their fastest receiver. Contrary to what you might think, sacking Manning has not translated to success for Indy's opponents this season. Manning has been sacked 20 times between the regular season and playoffs, 16 of which came in games the Colts won. None of the five sacks he has endured during the playoffs came on third down to halt drives, so Indy's offensive line has done an outstanding job of giving Manning plenty of time to make quality decisions.

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# posted by semper fidelis : 9:37 AM  0 comments