roulette betting system
In the early frontier gambling saloons, the house would set the odds on roulete tables at 27 for 1 - This meant that on a $1 bet you would get $27 and the house would keep your dollar. Today most casino's odds are set by law, and they have to be 34 to 1 or 35 to 1 - which means that the house pays you $34 or $35 and you get to keep your original $1 bet. When placing any bet, make sure you know if the odds are "for" or "to"
The house average or house edge (also called the expected value) is the amount the player loses relative to any bet made, on average. If a player bets on a single number in the American game there is a probability of 1/38 that the player wins 35 times the bet, and a 37/38 chance that the player loses their bet. The expected value is:
-1*37/38 + 35*1/38 = -0.0526 (5.26% house edge) For European roulette, a single number wins 1/37 and loses 36/37:
-1*36/37 + 35*1/37 = -0.0270 (2.70% house edge) In roulette the house has the same edge on all other kinds of bets also, because the pay outs are always set as if the zero square(s) did not exist. The only exception are the five numbers bet where the house edge is considerably higher (7.89% on an American wheel) and the 'even money' bets in the some European games, where the house edge is halved because only half the stake is lost when a zero comes up.
The house edge should not be confused with the hold. The hold is the total amount of cash the table changes for chips, minus the chips taken away from the table. In other words, the actual "win" amount for the casino. The Casino Control Commission in Atlantic City releases a monthly report showing the win/hold amounts for each casino. The average win/hold for double zero wheels is between 21-30%, significantly more than 5.26%/2.70% of all players money because players are making repeated bets after winning and losing portions of their total money. This is known in the casino gaming industry as "churning" and is especially true of slot machine players who usually end up losing all their money.
A player with a certain total amount of money may not win or lose all their money instantly, such that the total of all bets they make will often be greater than the total of the money they actually started with. The house edge applies to each bet made; not the total money, which means the player can end up losing significantly more than 5.26% of his starting money. For example it is likely that a player with $100 making $10 bets on red will be able to bet more than 10 times, because sometimes he wins. He may end up betting a total of 20 times on red. This means the expected value is 20*$10*5.26% = $10.52, over 10% of his money is now in the 'hold' despite the game having a 5.26% house advantage. A player who continually bets until they run out of money will give the house 100% hold.
There are a number of series in roulette that have special names attached to them. These are placed by betting a set amount per series (or multiples of that amount). They are based on the way in which certain numbers lie next to each other on the roulette wheel. Not all casinos offer these bets, and some may offer additional bets or variations on these.
[edit] Voisins du Zero ("Neighbors of Zero")This is a name for the numbers which lie between 22 and 25 on the wheel including 22 and 25 themselves. The series is 22,18,29,7,28,12,35,3,26,0,32,15,19,4,21,2,25 (on a single zero wheel).
9 chips or multiples thereof are bet. 2 chips are placed on the 0,2,3 trio; 1 on the 4/7 split; 1 on 12/15; 1 on 18/21; 1 on 19/22; 2 on 25/26/28/29 corner; and 1 on 32/35.
[edit] Tiers ("The third")This is the name for the numbers which lie on the opposite side of the wheel between 27 and 33 including 27 and 33 themselves. The series is 27,13,36,11,30,8,23,10,5,24,16,33 (on a single zero wheel).
6 chips or multiples thereof are bet. 1 chip is placed on each of the following splits: 5/8; 10/11; 13/16; 23/24; 27/30; 33/36.
A variant known as "Tier 5,8,10,11" has an additional chip placed straight up on 5, 8, 10 and 11; and so is a 10-piece bet.
This is also called the "Small Series" It includes the following wagers which are all Splits
5/8, 10/11, 13/16, 23/24, 27/30, 33/36
[edit] Orphelins ("Orphans")These numbers make up the two slices of the wheel outside the Tiers and Voisins. They contain a total of eight numbers, the Orphans comprising 17,34,6 and the Orphelins being 1,20,14,31,9.
5 chips or multiples thereof are bet. 1 chip is placed straight-up on 1 and 1 chip on each of the splits: 6/9; 14/17; 17/20 and 31/34.
[edit] "xx and the Neighbors"A number may be backed along with the 2 numbers on either side of it in a 5 piece bet. For example, "0 and the Neighbors" is a 5 piece bet with 1 piece straight-up on 3, 26, 0, 32 and 15. Neighbors bets are often put on in combinations, for example "1, 9, 14 and the neighbors" is a 15 piece bet covering 18, 22, 33, 16 with 1 piece; 9, 31, 20, 1 with 2 pieces and 14 with 3 pieces.
Any of the above bets may be combined, eg "Orphelins by 1 and Zero and the Neighbors by 1." The "...and the Neighbors." is often assumed by the Croupier.
[edit] Betting strategies and tacticsAlbert Einstein is reputed to have stated, "You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it."
Nevertheless, the numerous even-money bets in roulette have inspired many players over the years to attempt to beat the game by using one or more variations of a Martingale betting strategy, wherein the gamer doubles the bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses, plus win a profit equal to the original bet. As the referenced article on Martingales points out, this betting strategy is fundamentally flawed in practice and the near-universal long-term consequence is a large financial loss. Another strategy is the Fibonacci system, where bets are calculated according to the Fibonacci sequence. Regardless of the specific progression, no such strategy can statistically overcome the casino's advantage.
While not a strategy to win money, Los Angeles Times editor Andrés Martinez described an enjoyable roulette betting method in his book on Las Vegas entitled "24/7". He called it the "dopey experiment". The idea is to divide one's roulette session bankroll into 35 units. This unit is bet on a particular number for 35 consecutive spins. Thus, if the number hits in that time, the gambler wins back the original bankroll and can play subsequent spins with house money. However, there is only a (1 − (37 / 38)35) * 100% = 60.68% probability of winning within 35 spins (assuming a double zero wheel with 38 pockets).
There is a common misconception that the green numbers are "house numbers" and that by betting on them one "gains the house edge." In fact, it is true that the house's advantage comes from the existence of the green numbers (a game without them would be statistically fair); however, they are no more or less likely to come up than any other number.
Various attempts have been made by engineers to overcome the house edge through predicting the mechanical performance of the wheel, most notably by Joseph Jagger at Monte Carlo in 1873. These schemes work by determining that the ball is more likely to fall at certain numbers. Claude Shannon, a mathematician and computer scientist best known for his contributions to information theory, built arguably the first wearable computer to do so in 1961. [4]
To try to prevent exploits like this, the casinos monitor the performance of their wheels, and rebalance and realign them regularly to try to keep the result of the spins as random as possible.
More recently Thomas Bass, in his book The Eudaemonic Pie 1991 (published as The Newtonian Casino in Britain), has claimed to be able to predict wheel performance in real time. The book describes the exploits of a group of computer hackers, who called themselves the Eudaemons, who in the late 1970s used computers in their shoes to win at roulette by predicting where the ball would fall.
At least in the 1930s, some professional gamblers were able to consistently gain an edge in roulette by seeking out rigged wheels (not difficult to find at that time) and betting opposite the largest bets.
In the early 1990s, Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo used a computer to model the tendencies of the roulette wheels at the Casino de Madrid in Madrid, Spain. Betting the most likely numbers, along with members of his family, he was able to win over one million dollars over a period of several years. A court ruled in his favor when the legality of his strategy was challenged by the casino.
In 2004 it was reported that a group of two Serbs and one Hungarian in London had used a laser scanner hidden inside a mobile phone linked to a computer to predict the sector of the wheel where the ball was most likely to drop[5]. They were arrested, but released without charge as there was no proof they had technically interfered with casino equipment[6].
[edit] Betting only on redOne conceivable strategy would be to bet on the ball landing in a red space for a certain number of spins, for example, 38.
There are 18 red spaces on a roulette table with 38 total spaces. Dividing 18 by 38 yields a probability of landing on red of 47.37%. This probability can be used in a binomial distribution and made into an approximate standard normal distribution.
Doing so indicates that, if one were to spin the wheel 38 times, there is a 99% probability that the ball would land on red at least 10 times. There is an 83% probability that in 38 spins, the ball will land on red at least 15 times. Out of 38 spins, there's a 50% chance that 18 will be red.
However, the break-even point is 19 spins, since the bet on red is 1:1, and the probability of 19 red spins in 38 is only 37%. This indicates the difficulty of winning by only betting on red.
The results occur because, as indicated by the 18 divided by 38 equals 47.37% figure, the ball will land on red less than half the time. This percentage applied in the binomial and standard normal distributions creates the vast divide in probability from 18 red spins to 19 red spins out of 38 spins. It is very unlikely for anyone to spin much more than 18 red spins out of 38 spins.
[edit] Betting multiple timesThis type of bet is a combination of the red bet and the martingale system. The difference is that this bet also includes the odd. This strategy starts off with a bet of 1 on each the red and the odd (or you can do the black and even). Each bet is treated separately. When one bet loses, it is doubled. When one bet wins, it gets set back to 1. The reason that this technique keeps the player in the game so long is that there is almost a 25% chance of winning both the red and the odd and there is almost a 50% chance of breaking even (win one bet and lose the other). Of course, in order for this method to last, the player would need an unlimited source of money, and a casino with another one to boot. In reality, this method backfires when the player can't bet any longer and loses. The loss that this causes is possibly hundreds of times bigger than a loss made when starting. Also, in the long run, because the house still has an edge, the player will lose money just like with all other "unbeatable" casino games.
[edit] Labouchere SystemThe Labouchere System is progression betting strategy like the Martingale but does not require the gambler to risk his stake as quickly with dramatic double ups. The Labouchere System involves using a series of numbers in a line to determine the bet amount, following a win or a loss. Typically, the player adds the numbers at the front and end of the line to determine the size of the next bet. When he wins, he crosses out the outside numbers and continues working on the smaller line. If he loses, then he adds his previous bet to the end of the line and continues to work on the longer line. This is a much more flexible progression betting system and there is much room for the player to design his initial line to his own playing preference.[7]
[edit] Using the dozen betThere are two versions to this system, single dozen bets and double dozen bets. In the single dozen bet version, the player uses a progressively incrementing stake list starting from the casino table minimum, to the table maximum. The aim here is to use a single dozen bet to win before the stake list ends. Many techniques are employed such as: betting on the same dozen to appear after two consecutive appearances, betting on the dozen that has appeared most in the last 15, 9, or 5 spins, betting on the dozen that, after a long absence of 7 or more spins, appears for the first time. The double dozen bet version uses two dozen bets and half the stake list size of the single dozen bet version.
[edit] 1st and 3rd column strategyOne bet of 2 pieces on the 1st column and one bet of 2 pieces on the 3rd column covers most of the red numbers on the table. One bet of 2 pieces on the black will provide insurance for occurrence of black. This betting system covers nearly all numbers except for the 4 red numbers in the middle column and the zero (and double zero in American Roulette). If the result is a red number in either the 1st or 3rd column, the player only breaks even. If the result is red in the middle column the player loses 6 pieces. If the result is black and in the middle column, the player loses 2 pieces. If the result is a black in the 1st or 3rd column, the player only wins 4 pieces.
[edit] Mechanical StrategiesThere are a number of roulette strategies which take a more mechanical approach to breaking the casino. The most famous is the biased wheel attack. In the biased wheel attack, the player clocks the wheel to find statistical deviations indicating some flaw to the wheel. Given that the wheel is man made it is quite impossible for the roulette wheel to be perfect. The biased wheel attack, seeks to find imperfect wheels and exploit the fact that some wheels will return numbers more often than 1 in 35, which means there is potential to have an edge over the casino. Clocking the wheel involves taking spin results in great numbers to identify any opportunities
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